Farm Futures: Pitcher Predictions

Last season marked the second year of preseason prospect predictions here at RotoWire, and as with most prediction pieces, there were some that looked quite prophetic, and some that I would like to permanently remove from the internet.

Before getting to the pitcher predictions for 2018, let's take a look at some notable hits and misses from last year's piece.

The Good

Forrest Whitley spends almost all of 2017 with Low-A Quad Cities, but he posts an ERA under 3.50 and a strikeout rate above 28 percent en route to entering 2018 in the top 50 on not just the RotoWire list, but the vast majority of prospect lists.

Verdict: As with the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prediction in last year's hitter predictions, I was right about Whitley outperforming the expectations of others, but I wasn't bold enough. Less than half of his innings came at Low-A, but he was never in danger of approaching a 3.50 ERA and his strikeout rates were well above 28 percent. I remain the high man on him, but he is in everyone's top 50.

Walker Buehler stays healthy and posts an ERA under 3.00 across multiple stops in the upper levels of the minors. He enters 2018 as a top-10 pitching prospect and a trendy pick in single-season leagues, with prospective owners anticipating a call-up in May or June next year.

Verdict: This was dead on except for the fact that he posted a 3.35 ERA over multiple stops.

Sixto Sanchez, who won't turn 19 until July 29, compiles a sub-3.20 ERA and close to 100 strikeouts in around 100 innings with Low-A Lakewood en route to entering 2018 as a top-75 prospect.

Verdict: He compiled a 3.03 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 95 innings and is absolutely a top-75 prospect.

Jharel Cotton, who has an ADP of 237 in NFBC leagues, posts an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.30 while logging fewer than 150 innings this season.

Verdict: This was almost too easy. The redraft crowd was pretty hyped on Cotton last year, while the dynasty-league crowd was left scratching their heads. He posted a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 129 innings.

Amir Garrett posts an ERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate below 16 percent in his rookie season. He ends up on waiver wires in the vast majority of formats by early May.

Verdict: Like with Cotton, this one was pretty easy to see coming. It's not hard to pick against a mediocre pitching prospect in his debut season, however it can sometimes be hard to recognize which pitching prospects are mediocre. Garrett notched a 7.39 ERA, although he did beat my estimate on his strikeout rate, fanning 19.6 percent of hitters.

The Bad

Robert Gsellman is the Mets' third-best starter this year (behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom) and puts forth SP3 production in 15-team mixed leagues.

Verdict: While I was laughing at the suckers who were buying into Cotton and Garrett, I was busy loading up on Gsellman shares. The lesson here is to not overreact to some glowing scouting reports and a tiny sample size when there are hundreds of innings prior to that success that suggest a player is not very good. It can also be dangerous to just assume that a pitcher will be good because of his organization or pitching coach.

Tyler Beede joins the Giants' rotation May 26 at home against the Braves. He sticks for the rest of the season, posting a middling strikeout rate around 18.5 percent with an ERA around 4.00, and is a useful streaming option in all formats in his home starts.

Verdict: I wasn't super bullish on Beede, but obviously any positive prediction for him would have fallen short last year, as he didn't even reach the big leagues, logging a 4.79 ERA in 109 innings at Triple-A. He'll get to the majors in some capacity this year if he stays healthy, but is not a good bet to be valuable in mixed leagues.

Josh Staumont, who has yet to pitch at Triple-A, joins the major league bullpen in June and posts a top-20 strikeout rate among all relievers in baseball over the rest of the season. He will be next year's Matt Strahm.

Verdict: Staumont still has nasty stuff, but his control was a major issue at Triple-A, where he posted a 17.7 percent walk rate, so he wasn't going to reach the big leagues in any capacity. While I thought he could be a weapon out of the bullpen in 2017 if the Royals made one last run, he will continue to be developed as a starter at this phase of their rebuild.

Frankie Montas collects double-digit saves in the second half of the season for the A's, and enters 2018 as a consensus top-20 closer for redraft leagues.

Verdict: Montas still has the stuff to be a closer this year or next, but he was chewed up and spit out by big-league hitters last season, giving up 25 runs in 32 innings, due in large part to a 13.2 percent walk rate. If at some point this season it looks like he's turned the corner, he could be worth a flyer in dynasty leagues.

20 Pitcher Predictions for 2018

1. Alex Reyes, whose NFBC ADP is 264, records less than four saves and starts less than four games.

2. Mike Soroka will carve up Triple-A hitters in the same fashion he has done at every other stop, earning an early-June promotion to the big-league rotation. From there, he posts an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.25 while gaining relevance in almost all formats.

3. Kyle Wright takes Soroka's place in the Triple-A rotation in early June, and gets a promotion to the majors in September. He doesn't exhaust his prospect status, but impresses enough that his ADP for 2019 redraft leagues is inside the top 350.

4. Mitch Keller does not pitch an inning in the big leagues in 2018, despite rampant calls from fantasy owners for his promotion in the second half.

5. Adonis Medina abuses Florida State League hitters to the tune of a sub-3.00 ERA and 25 percent strikeout rate, earning a promotion to Double-A in late June. He enters 2019 as a top-10 pitching prospect on real life and fantasy lists alike.

6. Jesus Luzardo, who has yet to pitch in a full-season league, cruises through the minors, finishing the year at Double-A. He enters 2019 as a top-30 prospect.

7. Nate Pearson strikes out 30 percent of the batters he faces at Low-A and High-A. He enters 2019 as a top-50 prospect.

8. Francisco Morales generates more hype than any other pitching prospect this season, with evaluators unanimously declaring that he has legitimate top-of-the-rotation upside. He will begin his age-19 season at Double-A and inside everyone's top-50.

9. A.J. Minter will finish as a top-10 reliever, earning over $11 in 15-team mixed leagues.

10. Jairo Solis' stuff continues to tick up as he gradually fills out his 6-foot-2 frame. He faces very little resistance at Low-A, posting a K-BB rate over 18 percent en route to a midseason promotion to High-A. The 18-year-old righty doesn't skip a beat, recording an ERA under 3.50 as the youngest pitcher in the Carolina League.

11. Chance Adams, who posted a 2.89 ERA in 115.1 innings at Triple-A last year, makes more appearances out of the big-league bullpen than in the rotation. His ERA as a starter is north of 4.50.

12. Adrian Morejon posts an ERA over 4.10 and a WHIP over 1.30 across stops at Low-A and High-A. He is already outside my top 100, but he will be outside everyone's top 100 this time next year.

13. Tobias Myers, who has never pitched above short-season ball, eclipses 100 innings at Low-A, logging an ERA under 3.40 and a strikeout rate above 27 percent, establishing himself as a top-100 prospect.

14. Chris Paddack only logs around 70 innings, but he climbs from High-A to Double-A, posting absurd strikeout rates north of 30 percent with an ERA under 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.10. He enters 2019 as a top-100 prospect.

15. Joe Palumbo returns from Tommy John surgery before the All-Star break. He proceeds to strike out over 28 percent of batters at High-A, and enters 2019 as a top 125 prospect.

16. Stephen Gonsalves, who has a career 2.39 ERA in the minors, makes a handful of starts for the Twins this summer, but after posting an MLB ERA over 5.00, he is sent back to Triple-A for the rest of the season.

17. Jordan Hicks joins the big-league bullpen in the second half and emerges as the Cardinals reliever with the highest ADP for 2019.

18. Melvin Jimenez posts a strikeout rate over 28 percent with and ERA below 3.50 across stops at Low-A and High-A, establishing himself as a top-100 prospect by season's end.

19. Yadier Alvarez makes the full-time move from starter to reliever in July, and joins the big-league bullpen in September.

20. Luis Oviedo, who turns 19 in May, opens the year in the New York-Penn League, but earns a cup of coffee in the Midwest League, striking out over a batter per inning across both stops. He enters 2019 as a top-150 prospect.