Farm Futures: 20 Pitcher Predictions

Last year marked the first year of preseason prospect predictions here at RotoWire, and as with most prediction pieces, there were some that looked quite prophetic, and some that I would like to permanently remove from the internet. Last week I delivered 20 hitter predictions, and this week features 20 predictions on the pitching side.

Before getting to the pitcher predictions for 2017, let's take a look at some notable hits and misses from last year's piece.

The Good

"Julio Urias will make more starts for the Dodgers in the first half than in the second half."

Verdict: He made eight starts in the first half and seven in the second half, so this was close, but it was still a solid call considering he was 19 when he was making all of those first half starts.

"Jose Berrios will make his big league debut on April 25 in a home start against the Indians."

Verdict: He made his big league debut on April 27, so I was off by two days.

"Jake Thompson will post an ERA north of 4.50 in a run of starts to close the year at the big league level."

Verdict: He finished with an ERA of 5.70 in a 10-start run in August and September with the Phillies.

"Michael Kopech will bounce back from another off-the-field incident to be viewed as a top 10 pitching prospect at the end of the year."

Verdict: I could have been even more aggressive about this prediction, as Kopech is a consensus top-five pitching prospect at the moment.

"Dylan Cease will finish the year as the Cubs' top pitching prospect. "

Verdict: Betting on guys who routinely touch triple digits seems to be a solid strategy for this piece. Cease is the 106th best prospect in baseball and the next Cubs pitcher (Jose Albertos) checks in at 169.

The Bad

"Jorge Lopez will be the Brewers' best starter in the second half of the season. "

Verdict: This prediction was so bad that there are probably people reading this who aren't sure who Lopez even is.

"Braden Shipley's K-rate bounces back to something in the 22-27 percent range with a move to Triple-A after it dipped to 17.8 percent last year at Double-A"

Verdict: His K-rate dipped to 15.5 percent at Triple-A and then fell to 14.1 percent in a 13 big league appearances.

"Cody Reed will be next year's Raisel Iglesias, as a dominant run in the second half will set him up for a 2017 ADP inside the top 150."

Verdict: Pitching prospects, man. I still think Reed has more upside than Robert Stephenson or Amir Garrett, but the risk is through the roof at this point.

"Taylor Guerrieri will enter 2017 as a top-10 pitching prospect for dynasty leagues, and speculation will abound as to when he will debut in the Rays' rotation."

Verdict: I'd like to institute a ban on pitching predictions at RotoWire henceforth.

"Kodi Medeiros will start to look like a future No. 2 starter after posting an ERA below 3.00 and averaging over a strikeout per inning in the Florida State League."

Verdict: Look, I'm not ready to give up on Medeiros just yet (he's still 20), but he posted a 5.93 ERA and a 6.8 K/9 last year. Needless to say, I won't be making any predictions about Brewers pitching prospects this year.

20 Pitcher Predictions For 2017

1. Robert Gsellman is the Mets' third best starter this year (behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom) and puts forth SP3 production in 15-team mixed leagues.

2. Lucas Giolito posts an ERA over 5.00 and a strikeout rate below 18 percent in a run of big league starts this summer, and goes undrafted in most 12-team redraft leagues in 2018.

3. James Kaprielian dominates hitters at Double-A for roughly 40 innings and similarly overwhelms Triple-A hitters over 10 five-inning starts before receiving a final promotion in August. An innings cap limits him to a half dozen big league starts, but he impresses to the point that he averages a draft position in the top-250 in 2018 re-draft leagues.

4. Forrest Whitley spends almost all of 2017 with Low-A Quad Cities, but he posts an ERA under 3.50 and a strikeout rate above 28 percent en route to entering 2018 in the top-50 on not just the RotoWire list, but the vast majority of prospect lists.

5. Francis Martes posts very impressive numbers at Triple-A Fresno, but is traded this summer and makes his MLB debut with a different organization while the Astros land a frontline starter for the stretch run.

6. Max Fried, who is skipping High-A and going straight to Double-A this year, posts a 3.40 ERA and a strikeout rate over 25 percent before getting a midseason promotion to Triple-A. He makes a handful of September starts for the Braves and enters 2018 with an ADP inside the top-350.

7. Kolby Allard is the most dominant starter in a historically stacked High-A Florida rotation, posting a strikeout rate over 25 percent with an ERA under 3.35. He enters 2018 as a top-10 pitching prospect.

8. Walker Buehler stays healthy and posts an ERA under 3.00 across multiple stops in the upper levels of the minors. He enters 2018 as a top-10 pitching prospect and a trendy pick in single-season leagues, with prospective owners anticipating a call-up in May or June next year.

9. Jharel Cotton, who has an ADP of 237 in NFBC leagues, posts an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.30 while logging fewer than 150 innings this season.

10. Jose De Leon gets called up from Triple-A in late May or early June and posts an ERA over 4.20 while logging fewer than 100 MLB innings.

11. Mitchell White, who has just 22 career minor league innings under his belt, pitches his way to Double-A while posting a strikeout rate over 25 percent on his way to entering 2018 as a top-75 prospect.

12. Tyler Beede joins the Giants' rotation on May 26 at home against the Braves. He sticks for the rest of the season, posting a middling strikeout rate around 18.5 percent with an ERA around 4.00, and is a useful streaming option in all formats in his home starts.

13. Sixto Sanchez, who won't turn 19 until July 29, compiles a sub-3.20 ERA and close to 100 strikeouts in around 100 innings with Low-A Lakewood en route to entering 2018 as a top-75 prospect.

14. Josh Staumont, who has yet to pitch at Triple-A, joins the major league bullpen in June and posts a top-20 strikeout rate among all relievers in baseball over the rest of the season. He will be next year's Matt Strahm.

15. Jose Albertos opens the year at short-season Eugene, but earns a late-season promotion to Low-A South Bend where he flashes a top-of-the-rotation arsenal, placing him inside the top-100 on most prospect lists next year.

16. German Marquez puts up a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP away from Coors Field while posting a league average strikeout rate, making him a prime streaming option when the Rockies are on the road.

17. David Paulino gets shelled in a few MLB spot starts this summer and is eventually traded at the deadline.

18. Frankie Montas collects double-digit saves in the second half of the season for the A's, and enters 2018 as a consensus top-20 closer for redraft leagues.

19. Amir Garrett posts an ERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate below 16 percent in his rookie season. He ends up on waiver wires in the vast majority of formats by early May.

20. Zack Burdi, who has just 38 professional innings under his belt, joins the big-league bullpen sometime in the first half of the season and takes over the White Sox's closer role in August after David Robertson and Nate Jones are dealt. He enters 2018 as a consensus top-20 closer for redraft leagues.