Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Minnesota Twins
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Paddack returned in late September from May 2022 Tommy John surgery (his second) and had perhaps the best stretch of his career in the postseason as a reliever and will be counted on as a starting pitcher in 2024. Paddack threw just five innings in the regular season but had eight strikeouts and just one walk, averaging a career-high 95.3 mph fastball. He reached 99 mph with his fastest pitch. He then threw 3.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs with six strikeouts and no walks. The Twins hope it's a sign he can return to his 2019 form when he had a 3.33 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate for the Padres. At his peak, Paddack has good command and a plus change-up to keep hitters off balance. His innings may be limited in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, however. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#313
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $12.53 million contract extension with the Twins in January of 2023. Contract includes $500,000 in incentives for 140 and 150 innings pitched in 2025 and $750,000 in incentives for 160 and 170 innings pitched in 2025.
Faces hitters Monday
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
September 24, 2024
Paddack (forearm) threw a live batting practice session Monday, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Paddack is slated to throw again Thursday before the Twins make a decision on whether to activate him from the 15-day injured list. He's been sidelined since late July with a right forearm strain and would surely return as a reliever, if he does make it back later this week or during the postseason.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
78
How many pitches does Chris Paddack generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Chris Paddack generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2024
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-36%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .304 233 43 12 66 9 1 8
Since 2022vs Right .266 266 64 12 67 15 0 7
2024vs Left .303 193 32 12 54 6 0 7
2024vs Right .264 191 47 9 48 10 0 7
2023vs Left .200 5 3 0 1 0 0 1
2023vs Right .313 17 5 1 5 1 0 0
2022vs Left .324 35 8 0 11 3 1 0
2022vs Right .259 58 12 2 14 4 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-22%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-50%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.26 1.39 61.1 4 2 0 9.5 1.6 1.3
Since 2022Away 5.47 1.33 54.1 3 3 0 7.0 2.2 1.0
2024Home 3.61 1.33 47.1 4 1 0 9.1 1.7 1.5
2024Away 6.59 1.46 41.0 1 2 0 6.8 2.6 1.3
2023Home 13.50 2.50 2.0 0 0 0 18.0 4.5 4.5
2023Away 0.00 0.67 3.0 1 0 0 12.0 0.0 0.0
2022Home 5.25 1.42 12.0 0 1 0 9.8 0.8 0.0
2022Away 2.61 0.97 10.1 1 1 0 6.1 0.9 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Chris Paddack compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.76
 
K/9
8.0
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
93.3 mph
 
ERA
4.99
 
WHIP
1.39
 
BABIP
.341
 
GB/FB
1.11
 
Left On Base
70.6%
 
Exit Velocity
83.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.9%
 
Spin Rate
2080 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.6%
 
Swinging Strike
11.4%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
Paddack had a tantalizing rookie season in 2019, but hit some bumps in 2020 and struggled in 2021. Minnesota traded for him before last season believing they could turn him around. After a promising five starts (4.03 ERA and 1.72 FIP), Paddack suffered an elbow injury and required Tommy John surgery for the second time (also in 2017). He could return in the second half of the 2023 season, but may need some time to regain his command. With two elbow surgeries and a downward trend to his career before the trade to the Twins, it's not certain he'll be part of a MLB rotation again.
Paddack enters the 2022 season with as much concern as he had hype entering 2020. He exploded onto the season with a stellar rookie campaign, but hit some bumps in 2020 when the league began hunting non-changeups in the count. The lack of a truly effective third pitch has continued to haunt him as Paddack's ratios continue to climb across the board. His 2021 season ended on an unfortunate note of a UCL sprain which required a PRP injection in late September. That measure does not take him out of the woods; far from it. At the very least it puts a crimp on his offseason pitching plans where he normally would have the opportunity to continue working on furthering his curveball which showed some statistical promise last season. His fastball has simply been too hittable the past two seasons, so a deeper repertoire and the confidence to throw any of his three pitches in any count could help stop the ratio bleeding.
Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2021. There are some lingering questions, however.
Paddack followed his eye-opening run of success in the minors with an impressive rookie season, emerging as the ace of San Diego's staff. The right-hander paired excellent control (5.5 BB%) and strong strikeout numbers (26.9 K%) to post the fifth-lowest WHIP in the majors (0.98) among pitchers who hurled 100 or more innings. Paddack's fastball isn't overpowering -- it sits at around 94 mph and is thrown with average spin -- but opponents managed to hit only .204 against it due to Paddack's superb command and intelligent mound mechanics. His changeup was even more difficult to handle; Paddack went to the pitch 28.5% of the time, holding hitters to a .190 average. The Padres limited Paddack's workload last season, but he proved his stamina with four dominant starts to close the season. He'll be three years removed from Tommy John surgery in 2020 and should thrive as he's freed to pitch without limitations.
Significant help is finally coming for the Padres’ rotation in 2019, with Paddack leading the way. His fastball doesn’t generate plus readings on the radar gun (typically 93-94 mph), but at 6-foot-4, he gets great extension on the pitch, and plus command allows it to play up at least a full grade. Paddack may have the best changeup in the minors, which, coupled with his fastball command, has enabled him to log a 1.82 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 230:20 K:BB in 177.2 career innings while holding opposing hitters to a .193 AVG. His success to this point is unparalleled. He could make it as a No. 3 starter with his current repertoire. However, if he can improve his breaking ball and/or add another tick to his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, Paddack could profile as a No. 1 starter. The Padres limited him to 85 pitches per outing in 2018, but they should set him loose this year. He could join the big-league rotation around the All-Star break.
Paddack turned himself into a hot commodity to begin the 2016 campaign, as the 20-year-old posted an absurd 48:2 K:BB in 28.1 innings at Low-A in the Marlins' organization. With a 0.95 ERA to boot, Paddack was traded at the height of his value to the Padres in the Fernando Rodney deal. He continued to dominate through three starts, notching a 0.64 ERA and 23:3 K:BB in 14 subsequent innings for Low-A Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, he then started experiencing elbow problems, was diagnosed with a torn UCL and ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in August. As a result, he will likely miss the entirety of the 2017 season. When healthy, Paddack combines his sneaky low-90s fastball with a changeup and exceptional command. The development of a third pitch will determine his future path, if he can return to form following surgery.
More Fantasy News
Throws bullpen session
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
September 13, 2024
Paddack (forearm) threw a bullpen session Friday, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Pushed to 60-day IL
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
September 1, 2024
The Twins transferred Paddack (forearm) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Aiming to return for playoffs
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
August 28, 2024
Paddack (forearm) does not think he'll be able to return before the end of the regular season despite a recent clean MRI, but he is hopeful to come off the 15-day injured list and serve as a reliever in the playoffs, MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Set for MRI
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
August 16, 2024
Paddack (forearm) has started playing catch but will undergo another MRI on Aug. 27 before taking the next step in his recovery, MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could resume throwing soon
PMinnesota Twins
Forearm
August 9, 2024
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said Friday that Paddack (forearm) could begin a throwing program soon, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Could be traded
PMinnesota Twins
October 25, 2024
According to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic, Paddack is a candidate to be traded by the Twins during the offseason.
ANALYSIS
Paddack pitched only 88.1 innings in the 2024 regular season due to forearm issues and ended the campaign on the injured list after being diagnosed with a strain in July. The right-hander made 17 starts in 2024 and finished with a 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 79:21 K:BB. Paddack is owed $7.5 million in 2025, and a trade would make sense as Minnesota continues to tightly manage its payroll with the team owners looking to sell.
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