This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Now that UEFA play has started, there's no time to think or rest. Will midweek action be a problem for Arsenal in the North London derby since Tottenham have only had their sights set on this match all week? Maybe. With teams like Aston Villa, Brighton and Newcastle now playing midweek, it's important to take that into account because none of them are used to it or have the same depth as a team like Arsenal or Manchester City.
Record: 11-9. Up $232 on $100 bets.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen breakdown three matches and dish out a team parlay.
EPL Best Bets for Fulham at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace to beat Fulham -105
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It feels like I'm betting either side of a Crystal Palace match every week, but I think I've been mostly successful. Palace have maybe been one of the easier ones to project on a match-to-match basis even with recent injuries to Marc Guehi and Jefferson Lerma.
It's slightly a risk to back them without knowing the exact injury situation for Guehi or Jordan Ayew, but at home, I think their late attacking quality with Jean-Philippe Mateta is too good to pass up. Fulham have been a bit all over in their matches and that's one of the reasons I prefer Palace in this spot. Fulham aren't getting a ton of chances and they've struggled to do anything with possession, highlighted by the .96 xG with 78-percent possession against Luton Town last match.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Chelsea
Under 2.5 goals between Chelsea and Aston Villa +120
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One of these teams is incapable of hitting the back of the net and the other was in Poland on Thursday, and more often than not, Unai Emery likes to play in low-scoring matches away from home. You can take 'No' on both teams to score at +135, which seems like a great idea, though I think 1-1 is in play.
Villa's back line isn't where it was last season and while Chelsea aren't scoring, they're at least racking up opportunities. I think this match will be played fairly tight with neither team wanting things to be too back and forth. I'll consider under 4.5 corners in the first half, but I'll take under 2.5 goals for the game instead.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Brentford
Under 2.5 goals between Brentford and Everton -110
What's the deal with Everton? They have an xG over eight goals, yet they've managed just two and those came against Sheffield United. Of course, more than five of those xG came in the Fulham and Sheffield United matches, and they couldn't do anything against Arsenal and Aston Villa. Will another week of Dwight McNeil in the XI help things? Maybe Dominic Calvert-Lewin will start over Beto and that provides a spark. But, probably not.
Everton aren't in a good spot and this is a prime opportunity for Brentford to get three points, something they haven't done in their last three matches. While the absence of Ivan Toney wasn't noticeable in early contests, it's started to pop up in recent ones, as Yoane Wissa is not the same kind of player.
While I don't really trust Everton, I think both teams will struggle to score, as the away side try to steal a 1-0 win. Sean Dyche knows he can't win this match if it's high scoring and will want to play it fairly safe in order to not expose his side against what is expected to be a 4-3-3 formation for Brentford.
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EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Luton Town and Bournemouth at Brighton Hove & Albion
Parlay: Luton Town double chance against Wolves and Brighton to beat Bournemouth +131
I wrote this parlay down before Thursday's Brighton loss and injuries and while I'm less confident in it, there wasn't anything else that stood out to me outside of Crystal Palace and Brentford double chance bets. Brighton are coming off a loss and a bounce back is on the table, though injuries to Pascal Gross and Lewis Dunk don't feel great. On the positive side, they have tons of attacking options and can score three goals against most teams in the league no matter who starts.
It also feels extremely risky to bet on Luton Town, but it's their second home match and I think they can grab a point in this spot. Wolverhampton have been a bit up and down and I expect something similar here. Similar to the West Ham game, if Luton are losing, they have shown the ability to press for an equalizer if needed. This is also a bet on wondering if Wolves should be favored against anyone away from home.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 6
- Crystal Palace to beat Fulham -105
- Under 2.5 goals between Chelsea and Aston Villa +120
- Under 2.5 goals between Brentford and Everton -110
- Parlay: Luton Town double chance against Wolves and Brighton to beat Bournemouth +131
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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