This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Manchester City will hope to stop the bleeding when they head to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa on Saturday.
Aston Villa are coming off a 2-1 loss to Nottingham Forest, which dropped them to seventh place in the Premier League table. The good news is that they're are back home where they've had some nice wins the past two seasons. They beat Manchester City at home last campaign and will be hoping to do the same Saturday.
Manchester City lost yet again over the weekend, conceding two late goals to Manchester United at home. It's their eighth loss in their last 11 matches, as Pep Guardiola is still searching for answers on how to turn their season around.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
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It's dependent on who starts in this match for Aston Villa, but either Jhon Duran or Ollie Watkins are both live to score in this spot.
One of the defensive issues for Manchester City is that their press is not good enough and they're continuing to play a high defensive line. That's resulted in opponents effectively making runs in behind and creating loads of chances.
Aston Villa have been effective against non-elite pressing teams in their build up from out wide, and both Duran and Watkins are outstanding at making those runs off the back line. No matter who starts (assuming it's not both), I like them to put the ball in the back of the net.
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Betting on Player Assists
In Aston Villa's build up playing the ball into wide triangles and trying to bait the press, that opens up space centrally where they want to play the ball back to. Naturally, in their set up, Morgan Rogers is often the one receiving it and playing through balls to Watkins or Duran.
He plays the No. 10 role for Aston Villa and leads the team with 26 passes into the penalty area. He's also second on the team in expected assists at 3.3.
At a steep price of +600, I like the value on him to get an assist in this match.
Betting on Corners
I think the natural direction to go in the corners market is Manchester City, but I actually like the value on Aston Villa to have the most corners at +130.
The best teams they've played at home this season are Arsenal and Manchester United, and they comfortably won the corner battle in both of those matchups. Even last season when they beat Manchester City, they held them to just two shots and one corner in the match.
At home this season, Villa are only conceding 3.1 corners per 90 match, which is the third best in the league, behind only Arsenal and Manchester City. I like the value on them to win the corner battle in this game.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Betting Picks
- Ollie Watkins (+175) or Jhon Duran Anytime Goalscorer (+225) (whoever starts)
- Morgan Rogers Anytime Assist (+600)
- Aston Villa most corners (+130)
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