This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest
- 10:00 am: Ipswich Town vs. Newcastle United
- 10:00 am: West Ham United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Anthony Gordon (NEW at IPS, $9,600): Newcastle have the best implied win probability of the slate despite being away to Ipswich Town. Ipswich have played reasonably well at home, likely better than their record indicates, but this is still a good matchup for Gordon. Newcastle's set-piece situation has been a bit ambiguous recently with Gordon, Sandro Tonali, Lewis Hall and even Alexander Isak attempting corners. If Gordon somehow doesn't end up with a share of set pieces like he normally does, he has ways to pay off his salary with good open-play value and the fourth best goalscoring odds. Gordon has been getting subbed around the 80-minute mark, which does dampen his outlook somewhat.
I think it would be fine to prefer Joao Pedro ($9,400) or Jarrod Bowen ($9,000) to Gordon, though I don't think the salary savings make too much of a difference. Pedro finally played 90 minutes after several early substitutes the past month, and he's Brighton's penalty taker. Pedro is shooting 2.4 times per 90 minutes, a bit behind his 3.3 shots per 90 minutes last campaign. Bowen might take set pieces, but it's fairly clear he's not a priority set-piece taker for West Ham. His home matchup against Brighton is a pick'em, so Gordon also has the better matchup.
Crysencio Summerville (WHU vs. BHA, $5,700): Summerville has taken some set pieces this season, but it was notable that he didn't take any when subbed on last weekend while Lucas Paqueta took left-sided corners. I'm not sure if that will continue moving forward, but Summerville doesn't need set pieces to pay off his price. He's a high early-substitute risk, but I think his open-play value is solid and any risk is reflected in his price. (Editor's note: if he indeed starts, it's because Carlos Soler is suspended).
Since Brighton are slight favorites, I think it makes sense to prefer Georginio Rutter ($5,500) to Summerville. Rutter hasn't been as efficient as he was in the second division last season, but his shooting numbers are strong, and his playing time has improved recently. He's certainly a good GPP target at his price.
Callum Hudson-Odoi ($6,400) could be another target at the second forward spot. Brentford are slight home favorites to Nottingham Forest, but the Bees have conceded a lot of goals at home this season. Hudson-Odoi usually plays 90 minutes and he's scored 7.4 floor points per game this season.
MIDFIELDERS
Elliot Anderson (NFO at BRE, $7,800): Anderson has emerged in recent matches as a majority set-piece taker for Nottingham Forest, taking corners from both sides. He doesn't play in the most advanced role in the attack, but he's shown a willingness to make forward runs. That said, any change to Anderson's set-piece role would be a big downgrade to his outlook. At this price, he certainly needs a majority role to be worth his salary.
Yasin Ayari (BHA at WHU, $5,300): Ayari is basically a budget version of Anderson. Ayari should be on a share of sets, play 75 minutes and his open-play value is slightly worse than Anderson's. That's definitely fine considering you get a $2,500 discount. Ayari arguably has a better matchup, as well. Both West Ham and Brentford concede an above league average number of shots and corners, but West Ham have been worse at home with respect to shots and corners allowed.
Lucas Paqueta (WHU vs. BHA, $6,100): Paqueta took set pieces at the end of West Ham's game last week after Soler was subbed off. He's a good option if his role on corners is sticky, but I can't say with confidence that will continue. Paqueta also took West Ham's most recent penalty. He seems like a pretty risky option, but due to the uncertainty, I like him as a tournament target.
Sandro Tonali (NEW at IPS, $4,100): Tonali is another option whose set-piece role is tough to nail down. He didn't attempt any corners last weekend or in Newcastle's midweek EFL Cup fixture, but he has taken corners in some recent matches. He took five shots midweek (scored twice), and he's coming off of a three-shot performance against Leicester. This is another situation where set pieces would be a welcome boost for Tonali, but he might not need them if he can keep contributing with shots and defensive stats.
DEFENDERS
Pervis Estupinan (BHA at WHU, $5,600): Estupinan has been on a roll lately, scoring 10.4 floor points per game in his last five appearances. A matchup against West Ham is good for Estupinan and he should continue to have a split role on set pieces for Brighton.
Lewis Hall (NEW at IPS, $6,000): Hall has had an even better floor than Estupinan, scoring 11.2 floor points per game in his last five starts. Hall has become less reliant on set pieces in recent appearances, shooting more and creating chances from open play. He additionally has been scoring points with defensive stats and fouls drawn.
This column is normally a fan of Leif Davis ($5,200) in just about any matchup, but even if he had a monopoly of set pieces, he's priced close to Estupinan and Hall who are more likely to contribute in open play. Davis also doesn't have a monopoly role on set pieces, and Samuel Szmodics recently took corners on the left side ahead of Davis in his most recent appearance.
Ben Johnson (NEW at IPS, $3,100): There are a few cheap full-backs worth playing. I'm not excited to play a full-back against Newcastle, but Johnson has been a reliable source of floor points in his limited starts this season, and I think a six-point floor is achievable for him. Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($3,400) might be a slightly better option for just $300 more. He's still scoring defensive points at a good rate, but he's crossing and getting involved in the attack much more than when he was at Manchester United.
GOALKEEPER
Arijanet Muric (IPS vs. NEW, $3,900): I think Ipswich have been a bit unlucky to not get more results at home this season, and Newcastle are not overwhelming favorites in this matchup. This makes me think Muric is a bit underpriced. He has a shot at achieving the win bonus, and the save opportunities should be ample in just about any game script.
