This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Gameweek 38 is the final weekend of the season in the Premier League. Thanks for following throughout the campaign in what has been my most successful one yet in terms of betting. There have been plenty of ups and downs, but if you've been following all season, you should be in the positive.
Unfortunately, there are few teams with something to play for Sunday and I find it hard to bet on matches in which neither team has motivation and prior to lineups being known. Fortunately, there are 20 fresh bets at Kits & Wagers this week. Hopefully, we can end the season with more winners.
In need of more Premier League bets for the final weekend? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen each give 10 bets for Sunday's massive slate.
Record: 76-57-2. Up $2,068 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Nottingham Forest at Crystal Palace
SGP: Crystal Palace to win and Over 4.5 Crystal Palace corners = +130
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I can't believe Roy Hodgson might be managing Crystal Palace at the start of next season, but he's arguably made the team better since joining back up. They were in a funk under Patrick Vieira and could finish 11th in the table with a win Sunday. They've taken points in eight of their last nine home matches and have won three of their last four.
Nottingham Forest celebrated after successfully avoiding relegation last weekend and I'm not sure what their motivation will be, already as the worst team away from home this season.
I was hoping Crystal Palace to win would move down just a tad through the week, but it's been the opposite and at -145 (they opened -130), I'm not giving it out as a solo bet. I think adding corners instead of goals is the safest way to go, as it's most likely this plays out similar to Palace's last home match, a 2-0 win against Bournemouth in which the Cherries did little following their guarantee to stay up in the Premier League.
That leads me to Palace to win with over 4.5 Palace corners for +130 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Everton
SGP: Everton to win and over 2.5 Everton corners in the first half = +130
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Can Everton do it? I think they can and I doubt they want to be at the mercy of a late Leicester City win. Outside of the Brighton game, the results haven't been there for the Toffees, though their most recent home matches were against Newcastle and Manchester City.
There's a chance they just aren't very good and won't get three points, but Bournemouth have already started rotating their team and haven't really looked too positive since beating Leeds and confirming their spot in the league weeks ago.
As for Everton, they've been starting matches fast and going for early goals. Outside of the Brighton game, that strategy hasn't led to goals, but I think this is the perfect matchup for them to start fast and hold onto a lead. I'm going Everton to win with over 2.5 first half corners for them at +130 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham at Leeds United
Harry Kane to score against Leeds -120
Leeds probably have the worst defense in the league and not even Sam Allardyce has been able to fix it. Unless they try the Leicester City model of sitting back for 80 minutes and then hoping to win in the final 10, I can't envision this being a low-scoring match. Leeds simply aren't good enough to keep a team out of the back of the net, which is why they've allowed the most goals in the league.
Combine that with Tottenham still fighting for a European spot and going through some odd rotations under Ryan Mason, and it screams back and forth. Since over 2.5 goals is -195 and I don't want to give out another single-game parlay, I'm mixing it up.
Kane has 10 goals in the last 11 matches and at just -120 to score, I have to take him against a defense that will inevitably allow multiple goals. If you want more money, getting him at +340 as the first or last scorer isn't the worst idea.
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EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Aston Villa
Aston Villa to beat Brighton +100
I was set to write up three bets and call it a season, but I like Unai Emery too much to ignore Aston Villa. They're one point ahead of Tottenham and can't afford to drop points if they want to compete in the Europa Conference League next season.
That doesn't sound like much, but reaching any kind of European competition is a boost for a club like Villa. More than anything, that's seen in West Ham reaching the UECL final this season. While league play hasn't been kind to them, they still have something to play for and get excited about.
With Brighton locked into the sixth spot, I don't envision a ton of urgency from them, though that's kind of how Roberto De Zerbi wants to play. Following Wednesday's celebrations at home, there could be some rotation and that's before getting to Villa, who have allowed one goal in their last six home matches, which was a PK to Harry Kane.
Villa outplayed Liverpool for the first 45 minutes last match and at home, I think they'll go for that early goal. When these managers met in November, Villa stole a 2-1 win and only allowed seven shots. While De Zerbi has been great, I don't think he'll have the motivational edge in this one, so I'll ride Emery and the Villans.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 38
- SGP: Crystal Palace to win and Over 4.5 CP corners = +130
- SGP: Everton to win and over 2.5 Everton corners in the first half = +130
- Harry Kane to score against Leeds -120
- Aston Villa to beat Brighton +100
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
