DraftKings DFS Soccer: EPL Picks for Saturday, Dec. 16

MATCHES (ET)

• 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Luton Town
• 10:00 am: Chelsea vs. Sheffield United
• 10:00 am: Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace
• 10:00 am: Newcastle United vs. Fulham

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Premier League Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS

Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden (MCI vs. CRY, $9,400/$8,600): Manchester City have an implied goal total just shy of 2.5 and their forwards remain very affordable. Alvarez continues to take most of City's set pieces, so he's a priority in all formats. Based on Pep Guardiola's Friday presser,Erling Haaland is unlikely to start (or play), so Alvarez should again occupy the central forward role. I think this is worse for Alvarez's open-play floor, but since he still takes set pieces that doesn't worry me in cash games. I think the price on Foden is good if he plays 90 minute  and he only played the second half midweek in Champions League. Jeremy Doku ($9,300) has missed the last three matches for City and is questionable, which makes him an early sub risk even if he is fit to start. Given the state of City's injuries, I think it's more viable to play Bernardo Silva ($9,100) since he is likely to be in a more attacking role. 

Chelsea's matchup at home to Sheffield United is very close to Manchester City's in terms of implied goal totals and win odds. Raheem Sterling ($9,500) doesn't have much of a floor but his anytime goalscoring odds of +105 are solid. Nicolas Jackson ($9,200) was rested last weekend and it's also a great spot for him. Christopher Nkunku ($10,000) will reportedly be in Chelsea's matchday squad and if he is on the bench I think the Chelsea forwards become early sub risks.  

Bournemouth are one of the most in-form teams in the Premier League with 13 points in their last five matches, which include a draw against Aston Villa and wins against Manchester United and Newcastle. Their implied team total is above two goals against Luton Town and their players are priced up for the occasion. It's a bit crazy seeing Dominic Solanke ($9,700) priced above Manchester City forwards, but he has the same goalscoring odds as Sterling. Antoine Semenyo ($7,300) and Justin Kluivert ($4,800) are less expensive options, though they rarely play more than 70 minutes. 

A struggling Newcastle face an in-form Fulham squad that has scored 16 goals in their last four matches, winning three of those. In tournaments, I am fine targeting Fulham forwards like Willian ($7,400) and Raul Jimenez ($5,600) since I think this game has shootout potential. Despite Newcastle's struggles and Fulham's recent success, Newcastle remain slight favorites to win at home. Someone has to take their set pieces with Kieran Trippier suspended and Anthony Gordon ($8,200) has taken them in the past for Everton. He also adds value in open play, but I am concerned about his minutes after he picked up a hamstring injury midweek in Champions League. Miguel Almiron ($6,400) is an active winger who can rack up shots and he's achieved a floor of over six points in his past four starts and is a good value for this price. Alexander Isak ($7,100) is cheap for his goalscoring odds, but Callum Wilson's ($8,700) return to the squad could harm his minutes. 

MIDFIELDERS

Cole Palmer (CHE vs. SHU, $8,800): Palmer is priced near other options in good matchups including Jack Grealish ($8,100) and Marcus Tavernier ($8,300). Grealish picked up an injury in Champions League play and is questionable to start, so his status is worth monitoring. Tavernier will split set pieces for Bournemouth, has a decent floor and he's played at least 80 minutes in his past four starts. Of the three, I prefer Palmer in this group. He should take some set pieces and is Chelsea's penalty taker, and this role separates him from Grealish and Tavernier for me. Finally,  I think Andreas Pereira ($7,400) is worthy of consideration, too. He's played 90 minutes in each of his past two starts and his monopoly set-piece role when he's on the pitch is very valuable. 

Ryan Christie and Lewis Cook (BOU vs. LUT, $5,800/$5,100): Cook has finally received a price bump after stringing together several serviceable floor performances due in large part to his role on set pieces for Bournemouth. Christie has had some strong performances lately despite a more defensive role in his past five starts. If Tavernier is subbed off early or doesn't start, I think he'll split set pieces with Cook. Either way, both Cook and Christie stand out as affordable in this price range on a slate that doesn't have many exciting punt options. 

Sean Longstaff (NEW vs. FUL, $4,100): Longstaff is a candidate to take corners for Newcastle, as he has taken some in prior seasons. It's tough to project Newcastle set pieces with any certainty since Trippier has missed very few matches the last two seasons. I'm less optimistic about Longstaff taking set pieces if Gordon starts. You can build a case for Moises Caicedo ($3,600) based on three things: the matchup against Sheffield United, his price and that he usually plays 90 minutes. If you need to punt a midfield spot or utility spot, I think he's a fine option. Mateo Kovacic ($4,400) would be more likely to score a goal should he start, so he might be worth the extra $800 if you can find it. 

DEFENDERS

Trippier is suspended for this weekend, so there are no priority spend-up options at defender. Because of this, I think you can afford to spend over $8,000 four times in your other outfield positions if you want. 

Valentino Livramento (NEW vs. FUL, $4,100): I'll be interested to see how Livramento does from a fantasy perspective should he start as a right-back as we currently project. He's more likely to cross from this position since he's right footed and he's already getting a serviceable floor for this price as a left-back based on defensive stats and fouls drawn. I don't mind taking some fliers on Milos Kerkez ($4,400) in tournaments. Kerkez showed some good attacking promise in the Dutch Eredivisie last season that he hasn't quite demonstrated in the Premier League, and the home matchup against Luton Town is one of the best of the season for Bournemouth. 

Axel Disasi (CHE vs. SHU, $3,100): I'd like to play Livramento if I can afford it, but since the defender position is quite weak, I think it's justifiable to spend as little as possible at the position. Disasi technically plays as a right-back for Chelsea, though you wouldn't know it from his stats. He'd be too cheap even if he was a center-back. His teammate Thiago Silva ($3,400) is also affordable. 

GOALKEEPER

Ederson (MCI vs. CRY, $5,900): It has been over a month since Ederson and Manchester City have kept a clean sheet and City have only five clean sheets in 19 matches in all competitions. They have been conceding goals in matchups where their clean sheet odds are over 50-percent at a frustrating rate. He doesn't often face that many save opportunities, which caps his ceilings. Still, I will happily play him in cash games. I think the clean sheet odds are efficient markets over the long term, and I don't think salary is an issue this slate. 

If I don't have to sacrifice much in my other lineup spots, I think it's generally a good idea to pay up for the extra win equity at goalkeeper. My favorite GPP goalkeeper is Martin Dubravka ($5,100). Newcastle are still favorites at home, and I think he is likely to face many shots and has routes to slate-breaking goalkeeper scores. 

When Dubravka and Ederson inevitably concede 10 minutes after kickoff, you can find me tilting in the RotoWire Discord (hsmyyt.com/chat). See you there!