DraftKings DFS Soccer: EPL Picks for Saturday, August 12

MATCHES (ET)

• 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. West Ham United
• 10:00 am: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Luton Town
• 10:00 am: Everton vs. Fulham
• 10:00 am: Sheffield United vs. Crystal Palace

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS

Pascal Gross, BHA vs. LUT ($10,100): Brighton are, by far, the biggest favorite for Saturday's opening four-game slate against newly promoted Luton Town. Their attacking players who start will be very strong and popular targets with an implied goal total of more than two goals. Unfortunately, it's not clear who will start for Brighton, so you'll have to be ready to react to their starting XI when it comes out (an hour before kickoff, https://www.hsmyyt.com/chat to join our Discord).

Currently, I'm expecting the somehow still forward-eligible Gross to start at right-back and take a split role of set pieces. This role in a fantastic matchup makes him a strong cash-game option. In GPPs, I am wary of spending so much on a right-back in a forward spot and I am even less enthusiastic if Gross starts as a defensive midfielder, as Moises Caicedo is done with the club. Gross has been a penalty taker for Brighton in the past, but new signing Joao Pedro ($9,600) took a penalty in a friendly with Gross on the pitch and that would limit Gross's upside even more.

Pedro's anytime goalscoring odds of +110 are tied with teammate Evan Ferguson ($9,500). Ferguson profiles as a tournament-only play, but Pedro looks like a strong option in both tournaments and cash games if he is deployed as an attacking midfielder or winger. Pedro averaged 2.68 shots, 1.45 shots assisted, and 2.68 crosses per 90 in the Championship last season with Watford, though I doubt he goes a full 90 minutes if he starts.

Eberechi Eze, SHU at CRY ($9,800): Wilfried Zaha has left Crystal Palace and Michael Olise won't be in the squad given his fitness and transfer speculation. This leaves Eze as the primary set-piece taker and offensive threat for Palace away to newly promoted Sheffield United. Eze was dominant for Palace from a fantasy standpoint to close out the previous season, logging three goals, an assist and 14 shots in Palace's last five games of the season. His role as a possible set-piece monopolist is certainly superior to all the Brighton forwards, but that needs to be weighed against a much less favorable matchup away to Sheffield. 

Jaidon Anthony, BOU vs. WHU ($3,900): Due to injuries, Anthony deputized at right-back in Bournemouth's most recent friendly against Lorient and there's a chance he starts in that position against West Ham. If not, there's still a decent chance he's in the starting XI in his normal winger role. If you want to spend up at a midfield position, you'll likely need a punt at forward. Anthony is a great candidate for this and he might even take a few corners.

Anthony is not a natural defender, so if he does start as a right-back, I think West Ham's Said Benrahma ($9,200) could have a huge game at relatively low rostership if he plays on the left like he did last season. Another tournament dart throw I am interested in is Luton Town striker Carlton Morris ($4,800). I expect Morris to be on penalties and his goalscoring odds of +260 are good for his price. I'll play him in lineups with three or more Brighton players speculating that Morris scores an early goal and Brighton are forced to push in attack. Oliver McBurnie ($4,800) is also cheap and makes sense in lineups with Eze for a similar reason, though he does not take penalties for Sheffield.

MIDFIELDERS

Midfield is loaded with underpriced plays. This makes it a bit more difficult to justify using a midfield spot on Solomon March ($10,600) and Kaoru Mitoma ($8,900). I don't think either player will do poorly, but I do think they are less likely to outperform the midfield position like the expensive forwards can. They are strong tournament options, but in cash games, I prefer the options below.

James Garner, EVE vs. FUL ($5,200): I haven't discussed Everton yet, but Demarai Gray is being phased out of the Everton squad, while Dwight McNeil is projected to miss the first few weeks of the season. Garner should be the primary set-piece taker for Everton with neither Gray nor McNeil in the lineup and he is extremely underpriced for that role.

Oliver Norwood, SHU vs, CRY ($3,700): At face value, Norwood is very underpriced. Last season, he took a near monopoly of Sheffield's set pieces. He is simply too cheap for this role even as a slight underdog, but I am still a bit hesitant to call Norwood a lock. He's questionable to start after a preseason head injury that required stitches. Even if he does start, it is conceivable new signing Anis Ben Slimane ($3,100) poaches some set pieces away from Norwood. I don't think this is the most likely outcome and I'd still like to play him in cash games. It's enough fragility to make me consider fading a likely chalky Norwood in tournaments, though.

If Facundo Buonanotte ($3,400) makes Brighton's starting XI, he becomes one of the top values on the entire slate. That price is simply too low for an attacking role against Luton Town, even if he plays only 60 minutes. If you think Luton can trouble Brighton's defense, Ryan Giles ($3,300) is a compelling budget option, as well. The wing-back was prolific whipping in crosses from the left flank for Middlesbrough last season in the Championship and he is likely to have a set-piece role. The presence of Alfie Doughty ($3,500) makes me uncertain Giles is locked in for a full 90-minute shift, but I think there is strong potential for Giles to overperform his salary.  

DEFENDERS

Pervis Estupinan, BHA vs. LUT ($7,000): This is understandably a steep price to pay for Estupinan. He doesn't have a stable role taking set pieces and he seems slightly overpriced for his open-play floor. That said, I think the defender position overall is weak and the value at midfield allows you to spend up on at least one defender spot. Estupinan pairs a solid floor with a high-end ceiling in what might be one of Brighton's most favorable matches of the season home against Luton Town.

Emerson Palmieri, WHU at BOU ($6,100): Emerson started taking corners for West Ham late last season, including three in their Europa Conference League win over Fiorentina. If he starts, I expect him to take a few set pieces and deliver some crosses from open play. Bournemouth were a fantasy friendly defense to attack for open-play points already and Emerson might see more opportunity on the left side that I already mentioned might be defended by an out of position Jaidon Anthony.

The rest of the defender position is uninspiring. If you need to save salary at your second defender position, I think you could do a lot worse than Sheffield's wing-backs Max Lowe ($4,300) and George Baldock ($4,100). Nathan Patterson ($3,800) is also a bit cheap for a starting right-back for a slight home favorite. All three seem like solid bets to score around six points, but I don't think either is likely to hit any type of ceiling. In situations like these, I am fine saving more by rostering cheap center-backs and pairing them with my goalkeeper in GPPs.  

GOALKEEPER

Wes Foderingham, SHU vs. CRY ($4,500): If I have the salary, I will obviously prefer Brighton's Jason Steele ($5,800) over any of the other goalkeeper options. Brighton stand out far ahead of the rest of the teams in terms of their win-odds sitting above 70-percent and clean-sheet odds just under 50 percent. The rest of the matches are close enough to toss-ups that I'd like to save salary if I am not spending up on Steele. Foderingham is the cheapest home option and Sheffield United are barely home underdogs.