This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest
- 10:00 am: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Wolverhampton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Bryan Mbeumo (BRE vs. NFO, $9,000): We're not used to seeing Mbeumo priced so high, but a home matchup against Nottingham Forest is one of the best spots in the league for attacking players who take set pieces. Mbeumo's been in good form, coming off the bench to score in Wednesday's win over Chelsea and assisting in his prior start. He's played 90 minutes in each of his last two starts and while I wouldn't necessarily count on that again, his floor and goal/assist-upside is higher than usual based on the prime matchup.
Ivan Toney (BRE vs. NFO, $8,800): I'm not someone who normally highlights Toney, but it's only a two-game slate and Brentford's implied goal total might be their highest of the season. Toney has a decent floor for a center forward because he always plays 90 minutes, takes a lot of shots and has penalty-kick responsibility. Plus, his -135 goalscoring odds are tops on the slate by a wide margin.
I wouldn't argue if you'd rather roster Pascal Gross ($9,300) in cash games. Brighton are also in a good spot as they carry nearly a two-goal implied total for their home matchup against Wolves. Gross is expensive, however, especially if he starts in a defensive midfield role, where he doesn't have much upside outside of the assist equity that comes with half of the corner kicks. If he starts at full-back, at least you can expect a few crosses from open play and maybe a couple extra shots assisted. Maybe his position isn't as relevant on a two-game slate lacking for strong options at midfield and defender and maybe 10-to-12 points is enough. For me, the difference between his floor and Toney's doesn't make up for their difference in upside/ceiling potential.
Looking elsewhere, Morgan Gibbs-White ($8,300) seems a little pricey considering Forest have an implied total less than one. You can't count on a double-digit floor in this spot and that's likely what's needed if he's going to outscore two of Gross, Mbeumo and Toney. He'd be a fine option in GPPs, though, as he won't be too popular.
Other tournament options include Danny Welbeck ($7,600), whose +185 goalscoring odds are second-highest at the position. You'll need to look cheaper if spending up at both midfield spots. Diego Costa ($4,100) or Hwang Hee-Chan ($3,900) would make sense, if only because they're significantly cheaper than Matheus Cunha ($5,800), Brennan Johnson ($5,500) and Taiwo Awoniyi ($5,300). None of them are particularly inspiring options, but Johnson has the talent to succeed in any matchup. This is a slate where you wouldn't be surprised if none of the underdog forwards reached double-digit fantasy points.
MIDFIELDERS
Solomon March (BHA vs. WOL, $9,700): Maybe some people will scoff at the price, but March is no-brainer for cash games when you consider the context of the slate. He projects for the most raw points at his position and there isn't the usual opportunity cost at defender. Essentially, he's pretty easy to afford because you don't need the salary for anything besides forwards.
As someone who rarely rosters Mathias Jensen ($6,900), he's more of a conundrum than usual on this slate. His minutes are always a concern, as he's gone 90 in two of the last five, while he's lasted just 62 minutes in the other three. With Brentford in such a good spot, 90 minutes and a share of set pieces would make him one of the better options on the slate. On the other hand, if he only plays 60, fading him at relatively high rostership would likely be key to winning in all formats, especially GPPs.
There's significant opportunity with the upside that Alexis Mac Allister ($8,100) and Kaoru Mitoma ($7,400) possess. Keep an eye on the formation as Mac Allister is too expensive for a defensive midfield role but would have as much upside as any player on the slate if operating further forward. Mitoma continues to be a revelation, causing right-backs fits with his pace and dribbling. Despite four games without a goal, he's scored in six of 16 matches since the World Cup and will be less popular than he should be. Ruben Neves ($6,500) took most of set pieces midweek for Wolves, but you can't expect them to have too many in a much tougher matchup away to Brighton.
Kevin Schade (BRE vs. NFO, $4,500): Sticking with the theme of this being a great spot for Brentford, Schade offers upside and maybe a little value when you compare him with the other midfielders in this range. He's been priced under $4,000 on recent slates, but the bump here is warranted as the matchup provides the first time you can reasonably expect 5-plus floor points.
DEFENDERS
Pervis Estupinan (BHA vs. WOL, $5,600): While it's true that Estupinan has the highest floor at the defender position, this isn't Andrew Robertson that we're talking about. Consider that he's coming off 2.7 DraftKings points in 72 minutes in what looked like a great spot midweek against Forest, which was his fourth consecutive game under 10 fantasy points. In fact, he's only topped double digits in one of his last nine. Based on that, I'd have no problem sacrificing Estupinan if the money is spent to upgrade another position.
Aaron Hickey (BRE vs. NFO, $3,200): Whoever starts at right-back for Brentford will be a bit too cheap, whether it's Hickey or Mads Roerslev ($2,800). It's concerning that Hickey has created only two chances in 18 starts this season, but he could always hit a ceiling (one shot assisted, a couple of tackles and a clean sheet) in this spot. Though you could also be better off filling the third-team requirement with Renan Lodi ($4,000) or Toti Gomes ($2,700).
GOALKEEPER
David Raya (BRE vs. NFO, $5,500): The odds say Brentford are 39 percent to keep a clean sheet while Brighton are 41 percent, but I think Wolves might be more likely to score than Forest. Granted, I'm wrong sometimes. As always, play whoever you want at keeper. Spending down is fine, too. Keylor Navas and Jose Sa have considerably more save upside as away underdogs.
