This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Another pay-per-view card means another edition of best prop bets, where I take a look at the fight card in front of us and bring you (mostly) plus-money plays to consider for fattening the bank account. We'll break down our standard four fights this month, including a four-figure longshot on a competitor that should get back to her roots, and a champion who will look to put a stamp on his dominance over someone who was once thought to be an unstoppable force. Our betting lines this week come from William Hill and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Weight class: Middleweight
Joe Pyfer (10-2-0) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0)
There is a natural inclination to side with the veteran as an underdog in spots like this, as the relative UFC newcomer (no matter how impressive they have looked) simply hasn't been tested by such an experienced fighter. In this instance, however, the veteran in question has shown something less than an iron chin, and Pyfer has won seven of his 10 professional MMA fights by KO/TKO.
We have seen "GM3" dig deep and drag his opponent into rough waters for years, but there comes a point in which the man in front of you is too powerful, or too adept as a finisher, to let himself be ground down over time. Even if we set aside early one-punch knockouts by Khamzat Chimaev and Ian Heinisch, Meerschaert was in serious trouble against Makhmud Muradov before turning that fight on its ear in Round 2. Pyfer will pressure, throw in combination, and mix his targets, while his opponent will need to rely on a paltry 37 percent takedown accuracy rate.
Pyfer has only seen a third round once in his career, so it's conceivable that a strategy to wear on "Bodybagz" will work if he can't get the finish early. Meerschaert is never shy about standing at range, though, and keeps a square stance to go along with an upright posture that will likely get him into some irreversible trouble.
UFC 286 BET: Joe Pyfer wins via KO/TKO or disqualification (+100)
Weight class: Strawweight
Luana Pinheiro (10-1-0) vs. Michelle Waterson (18-10-0)
I will be abiding by the philosophy I laid out in my first pick here, as I just haven't seen enough from Pinheiro to trust her when the going gets tough. Waterson always turns her bouts into scraps, and while she may not be the most physically imposing fighter in the division, positional awareness on the feet and in grappling exchanges should pay big dividends here.
Pinheiro has used her big swings in the pocket to control space before getting the fight where she wants it. The issue here is that Waterson has always shown off sharp footwork and quickness, while frequently hitting her own throws from clinch positions. It's easy to forget that Waterson has won half of her 18 professional MMA fights by submission and doesn't necessarily need to get the fight to the ground to take the back of an opponent.
Waterson seems to be focused less on her grappling these days, but "The Karate Hottie" has still snagged a takedown in each of her last three fights. So much of this fight will take place in close range that I can't help but take a shot at this price.
UFC 286 BET: Michelle Waterson wins via submission (+1000)
Weight class: Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (7-0-0) vs. Christian Rodriguez (8-1-0)
Count me among those who weren't completely sold on Rosas when he made his UFC debut against veteran Jay Perrin. It's not that I didn't recognize his potential, but rather that I didn't think such a young fighter could carry a fighting style centered on strength and positional grappling. What should be abundantly clear after that decisive victory, however, is that Rosas likely doesn't possess the same drawbacks as someone like Chase Hooper. While there are still a few areas of concern, I don't think they will show themselves against Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is a decent boxer but will need to deal with a four-inch reach disadvantage against Rosas. This will force him to close distance, which should make it even easier for "El Nino Problema" to grab his flat-footed opponent and take him to the ground. Once there, I expect that length to work in Rosas' favor as he hunts for submissions. It's also worth noting Rodiguez's own prowess as a grappler, which may see him not be as urgent as he should be about getting back to his feet.
We've looked at a couple of matchups featuring veterans versus new blood, but this is a bout between two fighters who are still early on in their careers. While neither one is a finished product, Rosas has the more reliable tools to carry him to victory.
UFC 286 BET: Raul Rosas wins via submission (+155)
Weight class: Middleweight
Alex Pereira (7-1-0) vs. Israel Adesanya (23-2-0)
A casual glance at the records of these two competitors wouldn't tell you that the man with eight professional MMA fights is the defending champion. It also wouldn't tell you that he has beaten the far more experienced MMA fighter three times in his combat sports career, including twice by knockout. Keeping all that in mind, it's not quite clear why Adesanya is a decent favorite here, but it seems like something we should jump on as prospective bettors.
While it's true that "The Last Stylebender" has shown that he can hurt Pereira on multiple occasions, I'm far more worried about the lack of consistent footwork that left the former champion pinned against the cage against a devastating and fast puncher. Adesanya may opt to wrestle a bit more to counteract this, but Izzy was just 1-for-4 on his takedown attempts in the first fight, and "Poatan" may be the better pure wrestler of the two, just going by form alone.
Adesanya has radiated intensity and confidence as the contest draws near, but at the end of the day, skills win fights. Pereira will need to be careful but is the more skilled fighter overall, which should win out in the long run. The fact that we can turn an already tempting line even more in our favor makes this play very attractive.
UFC 286 BET: Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO or disqualification (+190)
UFC 287 Best Prop Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 287 card:
- Joe Pyfer wins via KO/TKO or Disqualification (+100)
- Michelle Waterson wins via submission (+1000)
- Raul Rosas wins via submission (+155)
- Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO or disqualification (+190)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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