This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 9 for UFC Vegas 100. In the main event, Neil Magny takes on Carlos Prates.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 100 predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Charlie Radtke (9-4) vs Matthew Semelsberger (11-7)
Charlie Radtke takes on Matthew Semelsberger in a fight I like Radtke to get his hand raised.
Radtke is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Carlos Prates, who is fighting in the main event. Radtke is a good striker who has power, while Semelsberger does wear a lot of damage in his fights.
Semeslberger is on a three-fight losing streak, and on the losing streak, he has been knocked out once. Meanwhile, in his last fight, he took a ton of damage.
Radtke should be able to land the more damaging shots and likely get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 100 Bet: Charlie Radtke (-162)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8) vs. Denise Gomes (9-3)
For my underdog, I'm backing Karolina Kowalkiewicz, as the odds are way off on this one to me.
Kowalkiewicz takes on Denise Gomes, who is 3-2 in the UFC and shouldn't be a -520 favorite here. Gomes lost to Angela Hill, who's a similar fighter to Kowalkiewicz. The latter is a very active striker, as she lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute, while Gomes lands 4.48.
Neither are grapplers, so this will be a kickboxing fight, which is where Kowalkiewicz can excel. She also beats these unranked fighters trying to make a name, as that's how she had her four-fight winning streak and why she's 4-1 in her last fight.
To me, this is a fight that goes the distance. In what will be a kickboxing fight, I'll take the fighter who throws more volume as a +390 underdog, as this should be a much closer fight.
UFC Vegas 100 Bet: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+390)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Gillian Robertson (14-8) vs. Luana Pinheiro (11-3)
For my prop at UFC Vegas 100, I'm backing Gillian Robertson to win and win by finish.
Robertson has been much better since dropping down to strawweight and is coming off a dominant win over Michelle Waterson in a fight that could have been stopped multiple times.
Robertson has won 9 of her 11 UFC wins by stoppage, while Pinheiro has been finished in both of her UFC losses. She was submitted by Angela Hill last time out and was knocked out by Amanda Ribas.
Although Robertson will be able to use her grappling and likely submit Pinheiro, she still has the ability to get a ground-and-pound TKO, so we will play it safe and take her to win by stoppage here.
UFC Vegas 100 Best Bet: Gillian Robertson by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (-135)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (6-0) vs. Dusko Todorovic (12-4)
Reinier de Ridder (17-2) vs Gerald Meerschaert (37-17)
For my parlay, I'm taking a pair of middleweight fighters to get their hands raised in Mansur Abdul-Malik and Reinier de Ridder.
Abdul-Malik makes his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic, who has struggled. Abdul-Malik has won all of his fights by first-round stoppage, and Todorovic's chin is a concern. He's been finished in three of his four UFC losses. Abdul-Malik should be able to land something big and get an early stoppage here.
In the other leg, I'm taking de Ridder to win his UFC debut against the veteran in Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder is a former two-weight world champion in ONE Championship and is a great grappler.
This is a perfect fight for his debut, as Meerschaert will also want to grapple. De Ridder also has power, so he can hurt Meerschaert on the feet, but I expect de Ridder to take Meerschaert down and get a submission win here.
UFC Vegas 100 Bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik & Reinier de Ridder parlay (-145)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 100 card.
- Charlie Radtke (-162)
- Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+390)
- Gillian Robertson by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (-135)
- Mansur Abdul-Malik & Reinier de Ridder parlay (-145)
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