This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC remains at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, with a women's strawweight bout between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos headlining the card.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Neil Magny (26-9) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (17-2)
The co-main event of the card sees a solid welterweight scrap between Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez. These two were supposed to fight on October 15, but Rodriguez had an infection that forced it to be delayed.
Although Magny looked terrible in his last fight, that was against a potential future title contender in Shavkat Rakhmonov, who is the real deal. Rodriguez, meanwhile, edged out Li Jingliang in a fight many thought Jingliang should've won.
Rodriguez is a great boxer who throws a ton of volume, yet Magny has the ability to slow fights down and grind wins out. I expect him to clinch Rodriguez and force D-Rod to fight his fight, which is where Magny can have success. This is a close fight as the odds suggest, but Magny is the better fighter. As we saw in Rodriguez's last fight, he's not on the level of a top-10 welterweight, and Magny is.
UFC Vegas 64 Best Bet: Neil Magny (-115)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Jinh Yu Frey (11-7) vs. Polyana Viana (12-5)
There aren't many underdogs who I like on this card, but one I am backing is Jinh Yu Frey, who's facing Polyana Viana.
When this fight was made, I expected this to be a pick'em bout, as both have struggled to be consistent in the UFC. Viana started out 1-3 before winning two straight but did drop her last fight. Frey, meanwhile, is just 2-3 in the UFC.
When Viana loses, it's mostly due to her getting caught on the ground, and she has a 50 percent takedown defense. Frey, meanwhile, doesn't attempt a lot of takedowns, but I do expect that will change here. On the feet, both Frey and Viana leave a lot to be desired, as both are there to be hit, which is why this is such a close fight.
Neither fighter has shown their best in the UFC, so there's no reason for Viana to be the favorite, but I'll take Frey as an underdog here.
UFC Vegas 64 Best Bet: Jinh Yu Frey (+120)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Miranda Maverick (10-4) vs. Shanna Young (8-4)
Miranda Maverick and Shanna Young are rematching from their 2019 bout in Invicta's tournament in which Maverick won by first-round submission. To no surprise, Maverick is a massive favorite, and although there aren't a ton of props available, I like this fight to not go the distance.
Maverick has already proven she is so much better than Young on the ground, and I expect her to take Young down early and use her ground-and-pound to get the TKO win or get a submission. In the UFC, Maverick is averaging 2.10 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Young has a takedown defense of 60 percent.
Eventually, Maverick will get this fight to the ground and get the stoppage. The only way Young wins this fight is to catch Maverick, so I'll take the fight to not go the distance at -110.
UFC Vegas 64 Best Bet: Maverick-Young Doesn't Go The Distance (-110)
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Strawweight
Mario Bautista (10-2) vs. Benito Lopez (10-1)
Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) vs. Amanda Lemos (12-2-1)
For my parlay, I'm taking Mario Bautista and Marina Rodriguez to get the win on Saturday night.
Bautista is a borderline top-15 bantamweight and takes on Benito Lopez, who hasn't fought since 2019. In the UFC, Lopez is 2-1 but his layoff is a concern, as he was dealing with injuries. Bautista, meanwhile, has been active and looking phenomenal. Bautista is coming off a submission win over Brian Kelleher, and although in the first round I do expect Lopez to come out guns blazing, after that, Bautista should be able to take over. He'll either cruise to a decision win or get a submission victory, as he should have the ground advantage here.
In the main event, I like Rodriguez to get the win. Lemos has shown she is dangerous early, but if you can extend her ,that is when people have success. I thought she lost her fight against Angela Hill, as Hill had success in the second and third rounds.
Rodriguez is a very technical striker that will likely drop the first round, but she has proven she has the cardio to go five rounds, while Lemos hasn't shown it. Lemos also has a striking defense of 48 percent, which is a concern against Rodriguez. I expect Rodriguez to piece up Lemos in the later rounds and either get a TKO win or a clear-cut decision to cash the parlay.
UFC Vegas 64 Best Bet: Bautista & Rodriguez parlay (-101)
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 64 event:
- Neil Magny (-115)
- Jinh Yu Frey (+120)
- Miranda Maverick-Shanna Young Doesn't Go The Distance (-110)
- Mario Bautista & Marina Rodriguez parlay (-101)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
