Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi based Rating System that I created, which has an average Rating of 49.0 per game. This represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it's also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.7). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 54.7 (TOR) to a worst of 45.5 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.2 (NSH) to a worst of 57.7 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is only a 51.9 (MON). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, November 27, 2018

The Main Slate on Tuesday has 10 games with only one team on a back-to-back (Ottawa), so most teams will be rested and facing a rested opponent; five teams are playing the front end of a back-to-back, so we may see some backup goalies in net Tuesday. Both sites have highlighted events tonight with the FanDuel Super Goal ($33) and DraftKings Tuesday Special ($20). The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line)

PHI1 vs. OTT: Claude Giroux-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,600 DK), Sean Couturier-1 ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK), Travis Konecny-0 ($5,400 FD, $5,500 DK) - Give me all the Philadelphia you can, PHI1, PHI2, PHI3, mixed-line combos, power-play combos, I want them ALL! As stated above, Ottawa is the only team on the tail end of a back-to-back Tuesday and they are the worst defense in the league by a country mile (57.7 DR plus league-worsts 4.35 goals against and 38.6 shots against per game). Philadelphia is not playing great hockey right now, losing five of six, but a home date against this Ottawa team on a back-to-back should be a big score coming for the team.

WPG2 vs. PIT: Patrik Laine-1 ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK), Kyle Connor-1 ($6,000 FD, $6,800 DK), Bryan Little-2 ($5,100 FD, $4,700 DK) - Paralysis by Analysis -- Laine was the top winger on my spreadsheet Saturday, but I talked myself into the Blues being better defensively in recent games…whoops. Not this time, Pittsburgh is still a mess defensively and have lost six in a row on the road. If Philadelphia didn't have the Ottawa matchup, WPG2 would be my top line of the night.

TB2 vs. ANH: Nikita Kucherov-1 ($8,600 FD, $7,300 DK), Brayden Point-1 ($7,400 FD, $7,200 DK), Tyler Johnson-2 ($5,900 FD, $6,100 DK) - It's difficult to make Kucherov look like an afterthought, but Point may be the hottest player in the league right now with eight goals and four assists over the past six games. I'm hard pressed to find someone on a better stretch. John Gibson is my favorite goalie in the league but he is being left out to dry every night by what is likely the second-worst defense in the league (35.6 shots against, second-worst in the league); it will take a Herculean effort to stop the Tampa Bay onslaught Tuesday night -- for everyone's sake I hope Anaheim just throws Ryan Miller under the bus and saves Gibson for the second half of the back-to-back against the Panthers.

BUF1 vs. SJ: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($7,200 FD, $6,900 DK), Sam Reinhart-1 ($4,800 FD, $5,000 DK) - Aaron Dell had been outplaying Martin Jones by a wide margin and it worked against him Saturday as San Jose decided to force him into a back-to-back and Vegas dropped a six-spot on the Dell and the Sharks. Jones is likely to be back in net on the front end of a back-to-back Tuesday and the Sabres should be happy about that. Eichel (one goal, eight assists in last six games) and Skinner (five goals, one assist in last six) have formed a deadly duo that just keeps on chugging along. BUF1 should go lower owned than the other lines suggested here, but do not be afraid to attack the Sharks, they are old, slow and have bad goaltending.

Also in play: DAL1 at EDM, EDM1 vs DAL, CAR1 at MON, WPG1 vs PIT, NSH1 vs COL, MIN1 vs ARI

VALUE LINE STACKS

PHI3 vs. OTT: James van Riemsdyk-1 ($5,800 FD, $5,400 DK), Wayne Simmonds-2 ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK), Jordan Weal-2 ($3,400 FD, $3,100 DK)
PHI2 vs. OTT: Jakub Voracek-1 ($6,700 FD, $5,200 DK), Nolan Patrick-2 ($5,000 FD, $4,400 DK), Dale Weise-0 ($3,500 FD, $2,900 DK) - See PHI1 above, home vs. Ottawa on a back-to-back, this isn't rocket surgery people. PHI3 is a better play than PHI2, but Voracek and Patrick can be used in power-play stacks.

VAN2 vs. LA: Brock Boeser-1 ($6,100 FD, $5,500 DK), Elias Pettersson-1 ($5,900 FD, $5,600 DK), Nikolay Goldobin-2 ($3,700 FD, $4,000 DK) - Vancouver broke an eight-game losing streak with a win Sunday in Los Angeles and will face those same Kings on Tuesday night in Vancouver. Petersson continued his assault on the Calder Trophy with another goal (12) and assist (8), and he will be getting back linemate Brock Boeser from injury, plus defenseman Alexander Edler will be back for his second game after an extended injury leave. The Kings are not a bad defensive team on paper, but are down to their third- and fourth-string goalies.

OTT2 at PHI: Mark Stone-1 ($6,500 FD, $6,100 DK), Brady Tkachuk-1 ($4,500 FD, $6,300 DK), Colin White-1 ($3,700 FD, $4,300 DK) - Ottawa's defense is horrible, but they have some fun offensive talent and OTT2 features two of the best young players in the league in 21-year-old Colin White (seven goals, seven assists in 23 games) and 19-year old Brady Tkachuk (seven goals, six assists in 13 games), who pair with veteran Mark Stone (11 goals, 15 assists in 24 games) to make up a formidable group which is still priced down in the value range on FanDuel. Philadelphia has major injury struggles in goal right now and will likely be rolling out Calvin Pickard (4.01 GAA, .863 SV%) again Tuesday.

Also in play: CAR3 at MON, EDM2 vs DAL, LA1/2 at VAN

Solo Forward Options

Eric Staal-1 MIN1 vs. ARI ($7,200 FD, $6,300 DK) - Staal can tend to go dark when the matchup is tough, but he brings it in easy defensive games, such as Tuesday night against Arizona (51.4 DR). In his last five games, he's put up four goals and an assist.

Matt Duchene-2 OTT1 at PHI ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK) - Duchene has been on fire of late with six goals and 12 assists in his last 10 games; the road game at Philadelphia should provide another good opportunity to add to those totals against fourth-string goaltender Anthony Stolarz.

Max Pacioretty-1 VGK2 at CHI ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK) / Alex Tuch-1 VGK2 at CHI ($5,300 FD, $5,700 DK) - Vegas is much better at home but Tuch and Pacioretty still offer some great value together on VGK2 in a game against the Blackhawks who have not been playing good defense lately and will likely use the Toews line against VGK1. You can use both, but for value use Tuch on FanDuel and Pacioretty on DraftKings.

Alex Chiasson-1 EDM2 vs. DAL ($3,400 FD, $4,400 DK) – When I wrote up Chiasson on Monday night, he was on EDM2 and only getting top power-play time with Connor McDavid, but he was promoted to EDM1 on Tuesday morning making him pretty much the elite value on the board Tuesday night in my opinion on both sites. With 10 goals and two assists in 17 games there is no reason Chiasson should be $3,400 on FanDuel.

Lucas Wallmark-2 CAR3 at MON ($3,200 FD, $4,200 DK) / Andrei Svechnikov-1 CAR3 at MON ($3,600 FD, $5,000 DK) - CAR3 has been easily the best value line in the league of late, the only thing that kept them off my write-up is the road game and the return of Shea Weber to the Montreal lineup, but as a spot value plays, Wallmark and Svechnikov appear to be two of the better options in the league Tuesday.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward.)

Shayne Gostisbehere-1 PHI vs. OTT ($5,600 FD, $5,900 DK) - Not much needs to be said here with two-and-a-half shots per game and a top power-play spot against the Ottawa defense on tap for Gostisbehere.

Victor Hedman-1 TB vs. ANH ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK) - Hedman got off to a slow start this season and then missed nearly three weeks due to injury, but he has started to turn it on and has a goal and four assists in his past five games. He is not easy to squeeze in with your TB2 stacks, but if you can do it, he should provide a nice low percentage choice Tuesday.

Rasmus Ristolainen-1 BUF vs. SJ ($4,400 FD, $4,600 DK) - This is a great value for a solid player who is starting to get hot (four assists in last four games); and he's great for pairing with the BUF1 stacks.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT at PHI ($5,300 FD, $6,500 DK) - Chabot has a great matchup against the Flyers; he's no longer an extreme value on FanDuel, but his price should be closer to what it is on DraftKings.

Alexander Edler-1 VAN vs. LA ($5,000 FD, $5,400 DK) - I usually don't like playing guys in their first game back from injury, but Edler got to shake some rust off Saturday, so I like the spot he is in Tuesday against a bad Kings team.

Colin Miller-1 VGK at CHI ($4,400 FD, $4,900 DK) – Two goals and four assists in his last five games and a spot on the top power play, the only thing lacking here is knowing which Corey Crawford is going to show up Tuesday night for Chicago. Miller is a must-add to any Vegas stack that is considered.

Gavin Bayreuther-1 DAL at EDM ($3,700 FD, $3,700 DK) - Not a likely world beater but for the price with a spot on the top power play in a good matchup there are few plays better for the price; he has a goal and an assist in the past five games.

Also in play: Dustin Byfuglien-1 WPG vs. PIT ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK), Ryan McDonagh-0 TB vs. ANH ($5,000 FD, $5,600 DK), Ivan Provorov-2 PHI vs. OTT ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK), Miro Heiskanen-2 DAL at EDM ($4,400 FD, $4,000 DK), Jacob Trouba-2 WPG vs. PIT ($4,700 FD, $4,300 DK), Josh Morrissey-2 WPG vs. PIT ($3,900 FD, $4,100 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Louis Domingue TB vs. ANH ($8,600 FD, $8,300 DK) - I thought Tampa Bay was going to be in trouble with Andrei Vasilevskiy went down with a foot injury, but Domingue has filled in admirably in seven games since Vas went down -- a 5-2 record with a 2.86 GAA and .916 SV% are numbers that almost any netminder in the league would be proud to sport. The matchup at home against the Ducks is a great spot for a win because the Ducks will have fits stopping Tampa's offense, plus Anaheim's offense is nothing to be too worried about.

Devan Dubnyk MIN vs. ARI ($9,100 FD, $8,500 DK) - My timing on Dubnyk this year has been, to be kind, poor. However, this is a great spot for him as he is historically has much better numbers at home (better GAA at home each of the last three seasons) against a Coyotes team who despite league average shot attempts, sports the third-worst goals per game in the league (2.36).

Carter Hutton BUF vs. SJ ($7,900 FD, $8,100 DK) - Hutton has won six starts in a row while amassing a 2.09 GAA and .933 SV% over that stretch. San Jose provides a big upside due to their high shot numbers (35.1 per game, third-most in the league), but they convert at a subpar 8.9% shooting rate. This is some danger here if the Sharks sneak a couple goals by Hutton and things start to spiral downward, but I'll bet on the hot team and hot goalie.

Curtis McElhinney CAR at MON ($7,500 FD, $7,600 DK) - Montreal has slowed in recent games losing four in a row overall and four of their last five at home, while only scoring more than three goals once in their last seven games. McElhinney on the other hand has been Carolina's best goalie this year (6-2, 2.25 GAA, .919 SV%) and has allowed a total of four goals in his past three starts.

Also in play: Carey Price MON vs. CAR ($8,300 FD, $7,900 DK) – Price should have a big save total, if Montreal pulls out the win he could be a GPP-winning play.

Jacob Markstrom VAN vs. LA ($7,600 FD, $7,500 DK) – He beat the Kings on Saturday, why not again at home?