Prospects Analysis: Risers and Fallers

The spread of the coronavirus has caused the cancellation of the remainder of the NCAA hockey season in addition to many other professional leagues in Europe. The QMHJL has cancelled the remainder of its regular season, with the OHL and WHL likely not far behind. In short, the vast majority of the NHL's prospects have likely played their final game of the season and now is as good a time as any to cover which players' stocks have risen and which have fallen over the past six-plus months. 

RISERS
1- Nick Robertson (F-TOR): No prospect in the league saw their stock skyrocket this season as much as Robertson. The diminutive sniper currently leads the OHL with a whopping 55 goals in 46 games. He was also an effective player for the United States at the World Juniors. It has reached the point where it's difficult to fathom how Robertson -- one of the youngest players eligible for the 2019 draft -- managed to last until the 53rd overall selection. He would be in the conversation as a potential top-ten pick if a redraft was done today. Robertson's offensive skills are elite, as is his work ethic. He may find the transition to professional hockey a difficult one given his smaller frame, but he has about as much natural ability as any prospect in the game today. 

2- Nils Lundkvist (D-NYR): The Rangers are loaded with quality defensive prospects, but Lundkvist has separated himself from the pack. I, like most others in his draft year, viewed Lundkvist as a safe, reliable puck-mover with a limited ceiling. I thought he was a bit of a reach at No. 28 overall in 2018 but I also thought he stood an excellent chance of developing into a safe second-pairing defender, so I understood the pick. I clearly shortchanged him. Lundkvist is coming off a season in which he set a new Swedish Hockey League record for most points (31 in 45 games) by an under-20 defenseman. To put that into perspective, Victor Hedman and Rasmus Dahlin are just two of the players he surpassed to clinch that record. Lundkvist is also a better skater than I gave him credit for. He might not produce like Hedman at the NHL level, but what I originally thought was his ceilingn is probably now his floor. Expect him to sign with the Rangers this coming spring/summer and be in camp in the fall.

3- Connor McMichael (F-WAS): McMichael's 102 points in 52 games place him third in OHL scoring behind a pair of 2020 draft eligible players in Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti. A jack-of-all-trades type player, McMichael has 42 power-play points in addition to a pair of shorthanded goals. His hockey sense is exceptional, as is his effort level. His floor appears to be that of a very good third-liner who can move up and play top-six minutes when injuries strike. I'd bet on his smarts and skill all day long.

4- David Farrance (D-NSH): Farrance has been up and down over the course of his three seasons at Boston University, and that's putting it lightly. After an inconsistent first two years, Farrance finally put it all together in 2019-20. His 14 goals and 43 points (in just 34 games) led all NCAA defenders. By comparison, Farrance totaled just seven goals and 29 points in 68 games over the course of his first two years with the Terriers. He remains a risk because of his inconsistent play, but his ceiling is extremely high and Farrance has shown that he can handle major minutes. Originally a third-round selection (92nd overall) of Nashville in 2017, the Predators need to do whatever is necessary to get Farrance signed and ensure he doesn't return for a senior season. As a fourth-year collegiate player, Farrance would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2021.

5- Justus Annunen (G-COL): Viewed as a long-term project when he was selected No. 64 overall in the 2018 draft, Annunen has developed faster than anyone could have hoped. He posted a sparkling 1.77 GAA and .929 save percentage in 23 games for Karpat in Liiga, in addition to playing very well (2.57 GAA, .921 save percentage) in six games with Finland at the World Juniors. Annunen is big (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) and moves well. He could be ready to help the Avalanche after just one more season with Karpat.

6- Adam Beckman (F-MIN): Of the six players listed in the "risers" column, Beckman is by far the biggest surprise. Still just 18 years of age, Beckman was playing midget hockey in his native Saskatchewan as recently as two seasons ago. Now, he leads the WHL in scoring with 48 goals and 107 points in 63 games. Yes, he plays for a good Spokane team, but no one could have seen such a significant jump in production coming. He's in the top-100 conversation at the moment with the potential to rise considerably higher given his youth and background.

• HONORABLE MENTION
  - Jack Dugan (F-VGK): 2017 fifth-rounder (142nd overall) that led Hockey East in both assists (42) and points (52) for Providence. He's more than ready to turn pro.
  - Jonathan Dahlen (F-SJ): Dahlen returned home to his native Sweden following one uneventful AHL season split between Utica and San Jose. He responded with 36 goals and 77 points in 51 games for Timra en route to being named league MVP. The aging Sharks could use Dahlen in their lineup immediately. 
  - Kole Lind (F-VAN): Lind was bordering on a non-prospect for me following his first AHL season in which he posted just five goals and 17 points in 51 games. He upped those totals to 14 goals and 44 points in 60 games this past season. The rebound in production is nice to see from a player I figured would make a fairly seamless transition to pro hockey.

FALLERS
1- Vitali Kravtsov (F-NYR): Kravtsov's ceiling hasn't changed -- it's immensely high -- but his floor has clearly been lowered following a season in which he bounced around the globe. Kravtsov failed to crack the Rangers' roster out of training camp, played a couple AHL games, used his out clause to return to the KHL, then returned to Hartford after a handful of games in Russia. In Kravtsov's defense, he has played considerably better since returning. Hartford has had him playing both left and right wing in hopes of increasing his flexibility. Because he's limited defensively, he comes with far more risk than your typical top-ten selection. 

2- Rasmus Kupari (F-LA): Like Kravtsov, I thought Kupari was closer to NHL ready than he ended up being. Making the full time move to North America for the 2019-20 campaign, Kupari began the season in the AHL, posting six goals and eight points in 27 games. The 20-year-old Finn then tore his ACL at the World Juniors in December, underwent surgery, and he's been sidelined ever since. Kupari is technically questionable for the start of the 2020-21 season, but expect the Kings to be uber-cautious with one of their best prospects.

3- Aleksi Heponiemi (F-FLA): I'm officially worried about Heponiemi. His skill is undeniable but it was always going to be difficult for a player who is barely 150 pounds to generate offense at the professional level. By comparison, Johnny Gaudreau -- who is generally viewed as one of the best and smallest offensive players in the NHL -- is listed at 165 pounds. Heponiemi has posted three goals and 14 points in 49 games for AHL Springfield this season. I was shocked by his struggles considering how well he performed (46 points in 50 games) in Liiga a year ago. He's impossible to write off given his talent level but he needs to show major signs of improvement next season.

4- Jeremy Bracco (F-TOR): Bracco might not be on this list if he was with a different organization. Being limited to the right wing effectively eliminated any chance Bracco had of earning a call up with the Maple Leafs this season. He just recently returned to the Marlies following a month-long absence for "personal reasons." The Leafs and Bracco both appear to see the writing on the wall, which means the 2015 second-round pick will likely be wearing a different uniform sooner rather than later. His value is limited given his lack of size (he's listed at 5-foot-9, 185 pounds) and positional versatility, but Bracco has been an elite performer at the AHL level (113 points in 119 games) over the past two seasons and he's still pretty young (23 years of age). He should have a long career as an assist machine on the power-play at the very minimum.

5- Bode Wilde (D-NYI): An ankle injury kept Wilde on the sidelines until mid-November and he has yet to find his form since returning. The Islanders gave Wilde a 20-game trial with AHL Bridgeport where he struggled massively (zero goals, two assists) before being returned to OHL Saginaw. Wilde, as expected, has been much better in 11 games with Saginaw (11 points) but there were never any doubts about his ability to produce at the junior level. Wilde is an offensive-only puck-moving rear guard, so it'll be imperative for him to generate offense in order to have a successful pro career.

6- Isaac Ratcliffe (F-PHI): A 50-goal scorer in the OHL last season, Ratcliffe has struggled to replicate that success during his first AHL campaign. He's managed just six goals and 15 points in 53 games with Lehigh Valley. The 6-foot-6, 200-pound Ratcliffe is your classic power forward and they tend to take a long time to develop. Ratcliffe gets a mulligan, but again, he needs to show improvement moving forward.

• DISHONORABLE MENTION
  - Bowen Byram (D-COL): Byram's been fine (14 goals, 52 points in 50 games) but he hasn't been dominant (26 goals, 71 points in 67 games) like he was a season ago. He's still likely to begin next season with the Avalanche.
  - Kristian Vesalainen (F-WPG): Like Bracco, Vesalainen should be hoping for a trade at this point. The Jets don't seem to have any desire to use him despite the decent offensive season (12 goals, 30 points in 60 games) he just put up for AHL Manitoba as a 20-year-old.
  - Ian Scott (G-TOR): Scott's placement here is entirely due to the fact that he has missed the entire season due to hip surgery. He's still just 21 years of age, so time is on his side.