Prospects Analysis: 2016 NHL Draft Preview

In the end, all the suffering that Leafs fans endured this season was worth it. For the first time since 1985, Toronto will pick first in the NHL Entry Draft. Our annual ranking of the top-50 available prospects is below.

1. Auston Matthews (C, Zurich-Switzerland): Matthews decision to pass on collegiate and junior hockey to play professionally in Europe was a rousing success. He had zero incentive to spend this past year playing against overmatched kids. He posted 24 goals and 46 points in 36 games in the Swiss league and he got valuable international experience with Team USA at both the World Juniors and the World Championships. I don't expect Matthews to be as flashy as a guy like Connor McDavid, but he can impact a game in just as many ways. He has all the tools to be a franchise center at the NHL level and he should be ready to produce immediately . He uses his size well, his shot is elite and he has shown a real willingness to use his teammates when the opportunity presents itself, something that many young kids struggle with. I don't have Matthews ranked quite as high as McDavid and Jack Eichel last year (there is no shame in that), but I think he is a better prospect entering the draft than Nathan MacKinnon and Aaron Ekblad were when they were drafted first overall in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

2. Patrik Laine (RW, Tappara-Finland): Since I started covering NHL prospects for RotoWire more than a decade ago, I can count on one hand the amount of young players who have release and shot like Laine does. His ability to score off the rush and on the power play is unmatched in this draft, and virtually any other. Laine's other big strength is his ability to use his size (6-4, 210 pounds. to his advantage and his willingness to go to any area of the ice to score. Laine isn't a great skater, but scouts are of the belief that it won't hold him back at the NHL level. He thinks the game extremely well (a necessity for any productive player who isn't a great skater. and his playmaking ability, while not on the level of his finishing ability, is above average. He has the tools to be a perennial 40-goal scorer at the NHL level.

3. Matthew Tkachuk (LW, London-OHL): There are certain people out there who think that Tkachuk's brilliant season (107 points in 57 games. was the direct result of playing on the same line as two of the top prospects in the league (Mitch Marner, Christian Dvorak). While it certainly resulted in an increase in his point total (no one was able to stop the trio all season long), Tkachuk has shown time and time again that he possess all the individual skills to be a top-five pick in this draft. I have been most impressed by Tkachuk's ability to finish in tight around the net. He plays bigger than the 6-1, 195 pounds that he is listed at. The other underrated part of Tkachuk's game is ability to get under the skin of his opponents. He did it on a regular basis all season long and still managed to produce offensively on a regular basis. It's an attractive combination.

4. Jesse Puljujarvi (RW, Karpat-Finland): I expect Puljujarvi to go third overall, whether it be to the Columbus or whomever they trade their pick to. Puljujarvi led the World Juniors in scoring with 17 points in seven games, which is very impressive when you take into account how rough that tournament can be on younger players. My biggest, and only concern regarding Puljujarvi is that he isn't a natural finisher. On the plus side, he is a better playmaker than goal-scorer. His work ethic is off the charts and he is going to get more than his fair share of points simply because he is always hustling. Puljujarvi is talented enough to be a top-six winger, but I think he may be a bit stretched to produce as a first-line forward. I see his ultimate ceiling as a 60-65 point producing second-liner who can play in all situations.

5. Alexander Nylander (RW, Mississauga-OHL): Nylander's scouting report reads an awful lot like his older brother, William: An average-sized, right-handed shooting, playmaking forward who possesses great vision with the puck. William may have a bit more flash-and-dash to his game, but I think Alex is further along defensively at the same age. Whoever drafts Nylander will be doing so in hopes of finding themselves, at worst, a top-six playmaking winger. Nylander racked up 47 assists and 75 points in 57 games for Mississauga this past season. He had a good showing for Sweden at the World Juniors and he has always produced in international tournaments. I think William has a higher ceiling, but Alex is a safer pick.

6. Mikhail Sergachev (D, Windsor-OHL): Sergachev's size (6-2, 205 pounds), offensive abilities, and the fact that he is reasonably close to NHL duty makes him the top-ranked defenseman on my list. It's a scary combination of both floor, and ceiling. Even if Sergachev didn't improve one bit moving forward, he still would have a long career as an NHL regular. His first season in North America was a rousing success (57 points in 67 games). The potential is there for him to be a 30-minute per night defender who excels in all situations. I think he offers the best combination of skills of all those available.

7. Clayton Keller (C, USA U18 Team): It is scary that Keller had a lousy second half of the season and still finished with 107 points in 62 games. The only knock on Keller is that he is small. He is smaller than the 5-10, 170 pounds he is listed at. Still, he is shifty and rarely gets hit, something that is a requirement for smaller players if they hope to be successful at the NHL level. There is no reason to believe that Keller won't add weight to his slight frame and in turn, become more effective against bigger players. He has one of the highest ceilings in the draft behind Matthews and Laine. He should eventually turn into a top-flight first or second line playmaking center.

8. Pierre-Luc Dubois (LW, Cape Breton-QMJHL): Dubois had a great year for Cape Breton (42 goals, 99 points in 62 games), far better than I expected. At this time last year he appeared to be a mid-to-late first-rounder, but his combination of skill and work ethic has him flying up the rankings. Dubois plays hard. Sometimes, too hard. The vast majority of his points at the highest level will likely be the result of sheer hard work as opposed to anything fancy. It won't be pretty at times, but Dubois has done more than enough to prove that he is worthy of a top-ten pick.

9. Olli Juolevi (D, London-OHL): I don't believe that Juolevi has the upside of some of the other defenseman who will be taken in Round 1, but he is one of the safest picks amongst players who figure to be taken in the top-ten. Juolevi is a smooth skating, puck-moving defender who makes the game look easy. His vision is a big asset on the power play, but he doesn't have a great shot. He reminds me a bit of Keith Yandle, without the defensive brain farts. Expect him to provide a decade-plus of solid, if unspectacular, service to the team that selects him.

10. Michael McLeod (C, Mississauga-OHL): I expected more from McLeod this season production wise (he had just 61 points in 57 games), but he has all the tools to be a terrific offensive player at the NHL level. He is a well above-average skater, especially for a player his size (6-2, 190 pounds). The effort is always there McLeod and he has a rare knack to make something out of nothing on the ice. If a team is able to nab him in the range of picks 10-12, they may very well get a huge steal. McLeod has the physical gifts to tear the OHL apart next season.

11. Jakob Chychrun (D, Sarnia-OHL): Chychrun entered this season as a consensus top-five pick and the consensus best defenseman available. It's not that he has had a bad year by any means, but he didn't have the consistent, dominant year that many expected. Chychrun has all the tools to be a dominant NHL defenseman: he's big (6-2, 195 pounds), mobile, and has above-average puck skills. It has just taken him longer to put it all together than many predicted. I'm not sure that I would term him a high-risk selection, but if I was running a poor team with a depleted farm system, I might look elsewhere.

12. Tyson Jost (C, Penticton-BCHL): As is always the case when a high-end player is playing in a poor league, Jost's insane numbers this season (42 goals, 104 points in 48 games. must be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, Jost's game should translate well to the higher levels. He has only average size (6-0, 195 pounds), but he is a terrific skater who excels at stopping and starting. His ability to quickly dart around defenders is particularly impressive. There is no reason to believe that Jost won't become a productive offensive center at the NHL level, but you're taking a chance whenever you take a player who spent his draft year beating up on overmatched kids.

13. Jake Bean (D, Calgary-WHL): Every time I have watched Bean play, he reminds me of a slightly bigger, left-handed shooting version of Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis. Bean had a terrific season. He is an offensive defenseman, pure and simple. He makes smart plays with the puck and he is a strong skater. Bean might not be the type of player you would put on the ice to protect a one-goal lead with a minute left in regulation, but he should be able to help in numerous other areas.

14. Logan Brown (C, Windsor-OHL): The team drafting Brown will be drafting based upon future projection. 6-6 centers with good hands don't grow on trees. The biggest concern about Brown is that he doesn't consistently use his size to his advantage. I expect this problem to be rectified over time. Windsor is one of the top programs in all of junior hockey and Warren Rychel and the rest of the management team for the Spitfires should be able to help Brown pack on a solid 15-20 pounds of strength over the next two years. Assuming he is able to do so, he could be a dominant center at the NHL level.

15. Charlie McAvoy (D, Boston University-NCAA): McAvoy played a lot of hockey this year. He was a difference maker in his freshman season at Boston University (25 points in 37 games. and he got a lot of ice time for Team USA at the World Juniors. His game improved as the season went along. The offensive abilities have always been there, but McAvoy cut down on his turnovers later in the year. He plays a high-risk, high-reward style of play, but McAvoy has the hockey sense to limit the defensive miscues. If he cleans up his mistakes, he has the look of a second-pairing defender who can be an asset on the power play.

16. Kieffer Bellows (C, USA U18 Team): Like many players his age, Bellows struggles with effort and consistency at times. There are times when he looks like a top-five pick and others when he frustrates his coaches considerably. Bellows is one of the purest snipers in the entire draft. He had 50 goals in 62 games this season and he has a wicked release on his shot. I don't have much doubt regarding Bellows ability to produce offensively, but if he isn't scoring, he does nothing else to help his team win hockey games.

17. Logan Stanley (D, Windsor-OHL): Stanley's strong play over the past year has made him one of my favorite players in the draft. He has learned to use his massive size (6-6, 215 pounds. more effectively and while he will never be much of a point producer, he makes a good first pass and his hands are better than he gets credit for. In today's NHL where every team is looking for a hard working, shutdown type defender who can chip in a little bit offensively, Stanley should be in high demand on draft night.

18. Riley Tufte (LW, Fargo-USHL): Tufte split his season between playing high school hockey in Minnesota (where he not surprisingly dominated to the tune of 47 goals in 25 games to earn Minnesota's Mr. Hockey Award as the top high school player in the state. and for Fargo of the USHL. The results for Fargo (9 goals, 12 points in 25 game. were not as impressive, but the 18-year-old is still working on adding weight to his 6-5 frame. Tufte is a top-ten talent in this draft, but the team that selects him will need to exercise patience. He is several years away from putting it all together.

19. Max Jones (LW, London-OHL): You are likely to see Jones ranked higher elsewhere, but I am not totally sold on him, yet. I see a physical specimen who gives it his all every single shift, but I'm not entirely convinced Jones' ultimate role isn't that of an effective third-liner who can change the tempo of a game with his physical play while adding 15-20 goals a season. He has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but I haven't seen enough of it on a regular basis. At the very least, I would be shocked if he didn't carve out a long NHL career as an effective role player.

20. Julien Gauthier (RW, Val-d'Or-QMJHL): When you get to the mid-to-late stages of Round 1, you start to see more one-dimensional players selected. Gauthier is a massive (6-4, 225 pounds. goal-scoring power forward. His goal total this year was more than adequate (41), but he managed just 16 assists and he finished with 16 fewer points than last season. Gauthier's size, skating and finishing ability make him a lock to be a mid-first rounder, but his vision and playmaking ability is well below average.

21. Alex DeBrincat (RW, Erie-OHL): In the interest of full disclosure, I acknowledge that the range of outcomes for DeBrincat is massive. Playing alongside Dylan Strome in Erie the past two seasons, DeBrincat tallied 102 goals (51 each season. and 205 points, but he is very, very small. Smaller than the 5-7, 160 pounds that he is listed at. DeBrincat is shifty and elusive, especially with the puck on his stick, but for every smaller player such as Johnny Gaudreau who excels at the NHL level, you find a smaller, gifted offensive player like Rocco Grimaldi who struggles to find his way. I would not be surprised if DeBrincat becomes a perennial 30-goal scorer at the NHL level, nor would I be surprised if he maxed out as a career minor leaguer.

22. German Rubtsov (C, Russia U18-MHL): A strong kid who plays hard, Rubtsov seems like a lock to have a productive NHL career because of his ability to play up and down a lineup, assuming the team that drafts him can get him to come over to North America. Rubtsov is very responsible defensively for such a young European player, although it has been a bit difficult to get a read on him because he only played 28 games (26 points. all year in a subpar league (the MHL is the KHL's version of the AHL, although with far weaker competition). Based on talent and ability alone, Rubtsov is an easy first-round selection, but unless teams have a better understanding of when he plans to come overseas, it's difficult to project where he may be drafted.

23. Vitali Abramov (RW, Gatineau-QMJHL): A small and dynamic purely offensive winger, Abramov led the QMJHL in rookie scoring in his first season (38 goals, 93 points in 63 games. for Gatineau. His willingness to come over and play junior hockey in North America will earn him plenty of bonus points in the eyes of NHL organizations. He reminds me a lot of former Bruins forward Alexander Khokhlachev, who was the 40th overall pick in 2011 out of the OHL. I still believe in Khokhlachev's ability, although the Bruins never game him a realistic chance and he will return to the KHL next season.. If Abramov was two inches taller and twenty pounds heavier, he would be a top-ten pick. He has a potential to be a late first-round steal.

24. Cliff Pu (C, London-OHL): Whenever I watched Pu play this year, it made me think of the situation that Zachary Senyshyn was in at this time last year. That being, a guy with tons of physical gifts who played on one of the best teams in the CHL and as a result, got limited ice time. Pu's numbers this year were underwhelming (12 goals, 31 points in 63 games), but he is a prime candidate to blow up with more ice time and responsibility, which is going to come next season. Pu is a terrific skater with an above average all-around offensive game, and while some people may roll their eyes if he is selected in Round 1, I don't think he would be a reach at all from pick No. 20 or so onward.

25. Dante Fabbro (D, Penticton-BCHL): You will see others who are higher on Fabbro than I am. He had a good year for Penticton (67 points in 45 games. while being named the BCHL Defenseman of the Year, but I see am average skater, with average size who doesn't excel in any one area. He looks to me like the kind of defender that every team is hoping to acquire at the trade deadline every year. He projects as a solid, serviceable NHL defenseman, although one that lacks a ton of upside.

26. Luke Kunin (C, University of Wisconsin-NCAA): He began his freshman season at age-17, but Kunin ended up as the second-leading scorer (32 points in 34 games. on a terrible Wisconsin team. It was more than enough to make him a likely first-round pick. I don't see the high-end offensive upside here that some others do, but I acknowledge that Kunin can impact a game even when he's not putting up points. The effort is always there with Kunin so even if he doesn't develop as much offensively as the team that takes him hopes, he should be able to carve out a career as a third-line center.

27. Rasmus Asplund (C, Farjestad-Sweden): Asplund's performance for Farjestad (4 goals, 12 points in 46 games. wasn't overly inspiring, but he looked good for Sweden at the World Juniors and he is a gifted offensive player. Strength will never be one of Asplund's assets, but he has to add several pounds of muscle to his frame. He gets knocked off the puck too easily, although he works hard to get it back. He is a ways away, but the skill set is there.

28. Lucas Johansen (D, Kelowna-WHL): Johansen is nowhere near a finished product, but his production this season (49 points in 69 games. and his top-flight skating ability make him an awfully intriguing prospect. I look at Johansen (yes, he is Ryan's younger brother) and he reminds me of Rangers defenseman Brady Skjei, although Skjei was bigger and stronger at the same age. Johansen is the kind of player that NHL teams should be targeting these days. He is likely to be a second-round pick.

29. Libor Hajek (D, Saskatoon-WHL): Hajek is another defenseman who lacks much long-term upside but would make for a very solid selection for one of the better teams picking late in Round 1. He is big (6-2, 195 pounds), plays a physical style, and makes a good first pass. Hajek may never surpass 20 points in an NHL season, but players like him who can take a regular shift on an NHL blue line and never appear out of place are invaluable. Hajek would be a smart, safe selection for numerous teams.

30. Brett Howden (C, Moose Jaw-WHL): Teams draft at the end of Round 1 can generally afford to take a risk here and there, which is what Howden is at this point in his career. The effort is generally there with Howden, but the consistent production is not. Brett's ceiling is higher than his brother Quinton, who appeared destined to become a role player when the Panthers spent the 25th overall pick on him in 2010. Howden's numbers this season (24 goals, 64 points in 68 games. weren't all that great, but there are no noticeable weaknesses in his game. The skill set is there for Howden to turn into a useful NHL player, but I don't see a high-end talent here.

31. Chad Krys (D, USA U18 Team)
32. Victor Mete (D, London-OHL)
33. Markus Niemelainen (D, Saginaw-OHL)
34. Boris Katchouk (LW, Sault Ste. Marie-OHL)
35. Kale Clague (D, Brandon-WHL)
36. Taylor Raddysh (RW, Erie-OHL)
37. Tyler Parsons (G, London-OHL)
38. Pascal Laberge (C, Victoriaville-QMJHL)
39. Sean Day (D, Mississauga-OHL)
40. Samuel Girard (D, Shawinigan-QMJHL)
41. Janne Kuokkanen (C, Karpat U20 - Finland)
42. Sam Steel (C, Regina-WHL)
43. Nathan Bastian (C, Mississauga-OHL)
44. Tage Thompson (RW, University of Connecticut-NCAA)
45. Dennis Cholowski (D, Chilliwack-BCHL.
46. Jonathan Dahlen (C, Timra-Sweden)
47. Tim Gettinger (LW, Sault Ste. Marie-OHL)
48. Luke Green (D, Saint John-QMJHL)
49. Adam Mascherin (LW, Kitchener-OHL)
50. Yegor Korshkov (F, Yaroslavl-KHL)