This article is part of our NHL Waiver Wire series.
Predicting NHL teams is difficult. One day, they're preseason Cup contenders and hopes are high. A couple months later, it's a long losing streak and everyone's going to lose their jobs.
Doing the same for players isn't necessarily easy, though history and trends help for short-term outlooks. Unforeseen circumstances such as injuries or personnel change may ultimately change projections, but it's often best to trust the numbers.
If you're looking for up-to-date hockey resources, go to RotoWire for news and in-depth material.
See below for those who appear to be heading in the right direction.
(Rostered rates/stats as of Dec. 9.)
Forwards
Cole Caufield, MON (Yahoo: 28%): It wasn't necessarily shocking when Caufield was sent down for two weeks in November based on the lack of points and middling minutes, yet it's still something to see that happen to an elite prospect who's already produced in the playoffs. He hasn't set the world on fire or received more ice time since the promotion, but four assists in five games is promising. And you know Caufield's 2.7 shooting percentage is eventually going to improve, so it's probably wise to add him before a potential breakout.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI (Yahoo: 26%): Pageau has generally been an excellent fantasy provider since 2015, though his stats have dipped this season — along with many other teammates — thanks to a lengthy losing streak that was only broken Tuesday. The Isles seem to be scoring again and that's coincided with Pageau notching
Predicting NHL teams is difficult. One day, they're preseason Cup contenders and hopes are high. A couple months later, it's a long losing streak and everyone's going to lose their jobs.
Doing the same for players isn't necessarily easy, though history and trends help for short-term outlooks. Unforeseen circumstances such as injuries or personnel change may ultimately change projections, but it's often best to trust the numbers.
If you're looking for up-to-date hockey resources, go to RotoWire for news and in-depth material.
See below for those who appear to be heading in the right direction.
(Rostered rates/stats as of Dec. 9.)
Forwards
Cole Caufield, MON (Yahoo: 28%): It wasn't necessarily shocking when Caufield was sent down for two weeks in November based on the lack of points and middling minutes, yet it's still something to see that happen to an elite prospect who's already produced in the playoffs. He hasn't set the world on fire or received more ice time since the promotion, but four assists in five games is promising. And you know Caufield's 2.7 shooting percentage is eventually going to improve, so it's probably wise to add him before a potential breakout.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, NYI (Yahoo: 26%): Pageau has generally been an excellent fantasy provider since 2015, though his stats have dipped this season — along with many other teammates — thanks to a lengthy losing streak that was only broken Tuesday. The Isles seem to be scoring again and that's coincided with Pageau notching points in three consecutive games. Even should he fail to consistently find the scoresheet, he's still reliable for shots (30), hits (47) and nightly double-digit faceoff wins along with a place on both special-teams units.
Ivan Barbashev, STL (Yahoo: 16%): Entering this season, Barbashev had carved out a career as a lower-lineup forward whose previous point peak was 26. That mark will most likely be obliterated as he's already up to eight goals and nine assists. Barbashev has been on fire and his latest performance of two helpers and six hits on Tuesday highlights his versatility. Roles on the Blues' second power play and lead penalty kill should only strengthen his cause.
Eeli Tolvanen, NSH (Yahoo: 8%): Tolvanen got noticed in the USHL, briefly starred in the KHL, and dominated in the AHL, but it wasn't until last year where he was offered an extended NHL opportunity and responded with 22 points in 40 games. His first 14 appearances this season only resulted in a goal and an assist, but he's since picked up the pace with a pair of power-play helpers and tallies in consecutive outings. Tolvanen has looked solid since moving up the lineup and should continue to improve if he can stay there.
Corey Perry, TB (Yahoo: 5%): The 2010-11 MVP turned back the clock during Montreal's historic run to the Cup Finals, though that didn't immediately translate after arriving in Tampa. But if you're looking for offense, few have been hotter than Perry the last two-plus weeks. Heading into Thursday, he's racked up six goals — with two PPGs — three assists, 25 shots and a plus-7 in the last nine games. Even with Perry within the bottom-half of the depth chart at five-on-five, he's earning enough overall minutes and chances.
Pius Suter, DET (Yahoo: 4%): It may have taken Suter a number of years to leave Switzerland, but it looks like he made the right choice. Following a fine debut with the Blackhawks occasionally operating as Patrick Kane's caddy, he's back in a top-six spot with Detroit and centering the first power play. Suter is flying high on a six-game scoring streak supplemented by 11 shots and 32 faceoff wins. There's little competition to overtake him as the No. 2 pivot, so it's safe to say he'll stick around.
Ondrej Kase, TOR (Yahoo: 2%): Not many know this, but I used to be the unofficial president of the Ondrej Kase fan club. Season after season, I would get my hopes up that he'd finally stay healthy, only to be disappointed each time. Kase missed three games with an upper-body issue and still skates on Toronto's third trio, so you're probably questioning his inclusion here. With Mitch Marner sidelined, the former Duck has been promoted to the top man-advantage for the last two. You know, the same unit boasting Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly. Kase may not remain there for the duration of Marner's absence, but there's enough upside in that possibility to get him on your roster.
Alexander Barabanov, SJ (Yahoo: 2%): Little was known about Barabanov before coming to North America, and not much has changed. After being traded by the Leafs earlier this year, the Russian winger has arguably posted the quietest 20 points in 30 NHL games you've never heard about. Barabanov sat for the first four outings and was then immediately thrown into a major role. He won't get you much in supplementary stats, but a growing partnership with Tomas Hertl can't hurt his offensive opportunities.
Defensemen
Jaccob Slavin, CAR (Yahoo: 41%): Slavin has been a minutes monster since debuting with the Canes in 2015 and once recorded four consecutive seasons with at least 30 points. His power-play time has taken a hit over the years, but he's recently received a boost with Tony DeAngelo and Brett Pesce in COVID protocol and has turned that into two PPAs from three outings. With both blueliners scheduled to miss the next three, Slavin has a chance to pad his stats in addition to his existing proficiency with shots and blocks.
Jonas Brodin, MIN (Yahoo: 25%): Like Slavin, Brodin is taking advantage of someone else's absence to become the new top PP QB. Alex Goligoski handled those duties after Jared Spurgeon went down Nov. 20, though Brodin was subsequently installed and has picked a pair of PPAs in the last week. In fact, since Spurgeon got hurt, the Swede has racked up a goal, six assists, 16 shots, 18 blocks and a plus-6 while averaging 25:41.
Keith Yandle, PHI (Yahoo: 18%): At 35, Yandle won't log 20-plus minutes or be counted upon as the main D-man. What he can still do in fantasy is produce on the power play and that's often enough to fill a place in the lineup. In the two games leading up to Wednesday, Yandle had notched a PPA in each. With four of those on the season, a current spot on Philly's first man-advantage, and an ironman streak that is sure to surpass the record of 964 consecutive games despite a club-worst minus-15, Yandle is serviceable in most standard leagues.
Erik Gustafsson, CHI (Yahoo: 0%): Gustafsson makes this section 4-for-4 when it comes to lead power-play defenders, at least when this was written. But don't get too excited since he hasn't done much with the opportunity considering the top unit contains four decent forwards, one of them being Patrick Kane. Seth Jones will undoubtedly be preferred in the long-term, though Gustafsson is the man for now. And when Jones reclaims the prized position, you can cut Gustafsson loose.
Goaltenders
Anton Forsberg, OTT (Yahoo: 3%): There's not a lot to like about the Sens' goaltending, though Forsberg has impressed with three straight wins — including a showstopping 47-save effort in Carolina. Matt Murray is out of the picture in the AHL and Filip Gustavsson has looked atrocious in his last four starts with a 5.08 GAA and .854 save percentage. That leaves Forsberg as Ottawa's default leader in net, which should be worth something in deeper formats and/or ones that count saves.
Daniil Tarasov, CLS (Yahoo: 1%): Elvis Merzlikins is the top dog in Columbus and that probably won't change soon. And no need to worry about Joonas Korpisalo, who's been subpar when available. Enter the 22-year-old Tarasov, who's been touted even before going 86th overall in the 2017 draft. He did well enough over two KHL seasons for the Blue Jackets to bring him overseas. Tarasov's minor-league numbers weren't much to look at, though he's admirably handled the big boys during his brief tenure. Maybe not an add-now candidate, but someone to keep an eye on for the future.
(Players to consider from past columns: Nazem Kadri, Joel Eriksson Ek, Brandon Saad, Jared McCann, Andrew Mangiapane, Ryan Hartman, Lucas Raymond, Nico Hischier, Ryan Johansen, Trevor Zegras, Nino Niederreiter, Viktor Arvidsson, Andreas Johnsson, Evan Rodrigues, Boone Jenner, Troy Terry, Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Jesper Bratt, Anthony Cirelli, Cole Sillinger, Dawson Mercer, Sonny Milano, Rasmus Andersson, Jamie Drysdale, Brandon Montour, Shayne Gostisbehere, Scott Perunovich, Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Vince Dunn, Mikko Koskinen, Alex Nedeljkovic, Jake Oettinger, James Reimer, Adin Hill)
