Morning Skate: Trade Em Up

From: Dan Pennucci
To: Janet Eagleson
Sent: Friday, Feb. 6
Subject: Trade Em Up

Trade deadlines in most fantasy leagues and the NHL itself are still several weeks away, but it will creep up on us quite fast. It's that time to examine your roster to determine if you go for the glory this season or rebuild and stockpile some picks in the hope of McEichel-ing (my new favorite gerund). We had an interesting chat on this topic the other night in the wake of several moves I made in our THL Daily Keeper League featuring many of our RotoWire brethren, notably my trading of a first round pick to you for your beloved Patrick Kane. I'd also sent a second round pick to another owner for Rick Nash and shored up my defensive depth with a late round pick to Tim Schuler for Nick Leddy (who will be leaned upon even more with Thursday's potential injury to Johnny Boychuk). (Ed. note - Boychuk has not missed a game since the play in Philadelphia)

For our readers, the THL is a daily keeper league with no limits on how long players can be kept on your roster. We eschew the traditional three-year keeper limit (usually draft year plus 2) and hold over three players each season. THL games occur on nights when the NHL has seven or more tilts on its slate (usually Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays) and scoring is simple: 1 point for a goal and an assist, 1 more for a PPG and GWG while the win is the only thing that matters for goalies, getting 2 for a win, another three for a shutout and 1 for an OT/shootout loss.

My team was four points out of the last playoff spot heading into Thursday and I was suffering with the injury to Kyle Okposo and I wanted to boost my scoring. Weighing the benefits of trading away my first two picks next year was something I thought about greatly despite the appearances of a quick trigger finger. I wanted to make a run to get into the postseason and at least put my team in a position to get there rather than running out Gustav Nyquist, Zach Parise and Mike Ribeiro every night and hoping, I can use Rick Nash and Patrick Kane now (despite Kane being off on many remaining THL game-nights). I'd been in the league three years and am finally figuring out the dynamics and wanted to be more competitive even if it meant mortgaging next year's early draft picks.

Kane will be a keeper for years to come and that's ultimately what swayed me as my roster had lacked that elite forward my first several seasons in the league. Nash and the Rangers are active on most THL nights and, despite my disliking of the Rangers, I wanted to add a more threatening presence. Will these moves payoff? Who knows? But I know that if I saw Kane and Nash producing on THL game nights and I didn't make a move, I'd be kicking myself.

Also, the players available in rounds 1 and 2 of the draft most years are still solid, but not necessarily building blocks. Usually they're second tier forwards and second-tier goalies, as I grabbed Parise and Okposo in rounds 1 and 2 this season. Players will emerge later in the draft and I wanted to make a run at finishing in the money this year.

This brings me to the point we were discussing on Thursday: I don't like trading picks away simply because of the long-term effects it could have on missing out. #FOMO. That said, you have to be dynamic and not married to a particular strategy when it comes to managing your team late in the season, especially in keeper leagues. I feel justified slightly that Nash and Kane are attractive keeper prospects, but it's still a risky move trading picks. I'm by no means guaranteed a playoff spot, but I was close enough I felt it could be had with some daring moves.

How hard is it for you to change your strategy with how you manage your team, embracing something that you never have before and seeing if it will pay off? In a league I've been in with RotoWire colleague Jan Levine for years, I've been fortunate to finish in the money five seasons running, but my team bottomed out this year. I recognized this early and traded away players to build for next season, acquiring three more picks in the first 10 rounds including an additional second-rounder.

For our readers who may be in a similar boat when it comes to measuring the buyer vs. seller argument, what do you look for in your roster and the league itself to determine whether to throw in the towel or make a run?

From: Janet Eagleson
To: Dan Pennucci
Sent: Saturday, Feb. 7
Subject: Change Em Up

You're welcome for Kane. And to think that you actually believed I was playing mind games with you while we bantered. As I mentioned in this week's Frozen Fantasy, I'm big on switching strategies. We all become far too predictable if we don't switch things up, but it's awfully hard to ask a leopard to change its spots.

I started (aggressively, I might add) to challenge my own thinking before the 2013-14 season. I used to load up my blue line with expensive studs early in auction and at draft. Last year, I decided to completely switch that up in a big auction league. I don't think I paid more than $5 for any defender and relied on dollar guys. It was a complete reversal of my usual strategy. And then right before the deadline, I traded Nikita Kucherov and Tomas Tatar for a load of high-end forwards on expiring contracts. And I won. Everything.

I'd do it all again.

I try to experiment with my approach in at least one league every year. This year, I've actually done in two. The first was to trade Ben Bishop -- you know goalies tend to become highly valued in most leagues -- in a package that netted Sid the Kid. I went from 10th or 11th in a 12-team league to as high as fifth and most recently, sixth. My trading partner didn't want to move Crosby, but he went from position three-four to having a stranglehold on the top spot. Win-win.

I had always said no to trading valuable twine-tenders, but it has helped both of us and in big ways. And now for Patrick Kane. The Hawks are my team. I was born into a Leafs family and I'll always have a small place in my heart for them. But Jonathan Toews and company make me leap up from the couch. And yes, Kane is a special keeper. But I haven't won with him. I could keep him, but I've done that unsuccessfully. So out he goes. Along with Jonathan Bernier, just not to you.

I had both as keepers coming into the year, but Bernier just wasn't good enough in that role. He was an upgrade over my desperate keep of Niklas Backstrom the year before, but I now have Ryan Miller. His value next year will be even better. And for everything Kane has brought me, he has also brought me too few active games in this format. I also have Jakob Voracek and while his team sucks, he has consistently played a lot of games each and every year. And he's very, very good.

I've also made moves in the league I won last year. I knew I'd be mid-pack, so I've packaged up guys for minor leaguers and young, cheap guys with perceived value. The key here is perceived. My minor roster in that league is now as follows: John Gibson, Derrick Pouliot, Darnell Nurse, Oskar Dansk, Brandon Gormley, Nick Ritchie, Vladislav Namestnikov and Oliver Bjorkstrand. And I fully expect that each and every single one of them will serve as trade bait when I take a massive run for the title next year.

My point? I used to believe too much in young prospects. I never wanted to let them go. Now? They are simply assets and I have no specific attachment to them. I actually draft prospects with an eye to their trade value, not their value to my own roster. Ritchie is the kind of big, young stud that people covet. Nurse will play with a bunch of studly scorers in the Oil Patch. Gibson is one of those goalies almost everyone covets. Pouliot. Gormley. The list goes on. They're guys other owners want. And I'll oblige ... when the time is right.

My decision to move guys and play for next year is usually informed by two things: what kind of assets I have to trade up and go for it, and where I sit in the standings. In both of the situations I've described, I was mid-pack or perhaps lower without enough tangible assets to make a big enough dent. So it's reload time. I mentioned to you that I generally operate on a three-year cycle in keeper formats. Guys better show me the money in that time or I show them the door. I've found that any longer a window of time and it's too easy to get married to the wrong guy. I've heard divorce can be expensive. Why overcommit? LOL

Now to some of the other things we touched on between pokes and prods about trades. Do the Leafs really suck as much as they seem? The Devils looked like superstars against them the other night. What happens to the Isles if Johnny Boychuk is out for long? Which winger ends up in Pittsburgh? I said Joffrey Lupul would be a fit -- yes, no or someone else? And lastly, are the Kings a destination for Cody Franson? I didn't think Slava Voynov was the kingpin on the blue line, but they've sucked without him. Or has their tappy-lapping, lack of regular season effort finally jumped the shark?

From: Dan Pennucci
To: Janet Eagleson
Sent: Sunday, February 8
Subject: Leaf Luck?

I can definitely get on board with it being hard to switch strategies, especially when you get attached to guys. In Jan Levine's league, I've drafted (and won with) Logan Couture in the past four seasons, to the point where the rest of the league was shocked when I traded him for a pick back in January. The defensemen thing has been cyclical I've noticed. After the elite players were gone this year, there was such a fall off to the next tier. You're not guaranteed a player challenging a point-per-game or even 60 points. I think about my taking of Erik Karlsson over Jamie Benn in the Yahoo! Friends and Family league when I see Benn have a great night.

(Speaking of Dallas, that was a great overtime goal from the player who used to be Ales Hemsky against the Rangers on Sunday. No one was happier than Kari Lehtonen, who essentially caused the game to go to overtime with his best Patrick Roy impression).

Do the Leafs suck? Well, they beat the Oilers on Saturday, one day after looking woeful against the Devils. New Jersey did enough to beat the Leafs on Friday, which has been seemingly easy since the calendar changed to 2015. New Jersey was then exposed even further as a mediocre team on Saturday with a 6-2 drubbing by Montreal, as the Devils' strategy of putting Montreal on the power play didn't work well. The Leafs are a mess and they can't blame Randy Carlyle right now. Someone's leaving TO and I'm sure there will be another scapegoat emerging in their attempts to McEichel. (I feel genuinely concerned for Connor McDavid if he lands in Toronto). (Ed. note: New Jersey then lost to Edmonton Monday. Edmonton). (Also apparently everyone is leaving Toronto. Everyone.)

The possibility of Cody Franson leaving seems to be gaining steam and you have to believe the rumors to LA will increase with the Kings' injury to Alex Martinez after being hit by Cedric Paquette. I can't see Voynov being the issue on the LA defense as Jake Muzzin has responded well with the increased ice time, but that team's problem seems to be deeper than a missing defender or two: inconsistent scoring, a human Jonathan Quick and spotty defense. The jokes have been made the last few years about LA coasting through the regular season then flipping a switch, almost to the point where they just collectively said "sure, we'll start trying" when they were trailing 3-0 to San Jose in last year's first round. Maybe it has, but I'm wondering who takes that last spot out west since it seems the Kings don't want it. Winnipeg got a big win today over Colorado while Calgary, Minnesota, and Dallas are still hanging around like Mike McD against Teddy KBG.

Pittsburgh seems to need some kind of help on the wing, especially after that loss Saturday to Vancouver, wow 5-0. Do we get a Jaromir Jagr return to the Pens? Lupul, as you suggested?

I still like the Isles for a playoff spot just because I think Florida's about a year away, rough loss for them today against Nashville. Travis Hamonic will be leaned on even more as will Nick Leddy. Also, what's the over/under on how many games Lubomir Visnovsky gets in before he falls victim to another nagging injury?

-Do we worry about the Rangers following the freakish injury to Henrik Lundqvist?
-Is the Eastern Conference playoff race over save for who plays whom?
-Who's been flying under the radar of late that you see potentially having a big finish?
-We've heard a ton about McDavid and Eichel coming into this season's draft, anyone else owners in dynasty leagues can start eyeing up as an impact player?

From: Janet Eagleson
To: Dan Pennucci
Sent: Tuesday, Februry 10
Subject: Beyond McEichel

Visnovsky? He's already been a healthy scratch -- who needs an injury? LOL

The Rangers need to be worried. Very worried, in fact. A vascular injury to the throat is serious. It's like the layers of the walls of the carotid artery are separated, which can result in blood clots and (gulp) stroke. He'll need to be on blood thinners while it heals and he won't be able to do much cardio. So if he returns like he says he will, his fitness will be challenged through a long playoff run. I think it's a lot more than three weeks. More like three months. Cam Talbot will be tested. And so will Rangers' brass. They might be fine if they go .500 with Talbot in the blue paint, but they'll need a solid backup.

The East? My short answer is yes, it's already set. But the Lundqvist injury is a game changer, even if they've got their chin up right now. If the Panthers sharpen their claws a little ...

Minnesota has been absolutely on fire of late and I think they're going to push for the eighth spot in the West. They didn't invest that much money in Zach Parise and Ryan Suter to be on the golf course on April 12. Wait -- the lakes in Minny won't be thawed by then; they'd have to head south. I'm not sure they make it, but they aren't going down without a fight.

The 2015 draft is a sweet one. Dylan Strome is a big playmaker who slows the game down and finds guys with his seeing-eye passes. He's not as good as a Joe Thornton, but he can control the game like that. He's mature and unselfish like Jumbo Joe. And he protects the puck well along the wall. Those are things that make very good NHL players. Very, very good. Mitch Marner of the London Knights is a step ahead of Strome offensively, though. Marner's game has exploded -- he has elite offensive skills, an amazing separation gear and remarkable creativity. Both will be great NHLers, but Marner will deliver more, sooner, at least in terms of offense. And that's what every fantasy owner wants. Lawson Crouse will be on every Canadian keeper owner's mind because of his dominance as an underager at the 2015 World Juniors. I loved what I saw of him there -- he's already playing a pro game and protects the puck in the cycle like no-one else in this draft class. But he's the kind of guy who'll take a few years to develop and he'll cut his teeth on the third line. He's great, but his short-term (first three seasons) limit his immediate fantasy value.

I will leave you with the last word. Keep it short and sweet -- 140 characters or less:

Morgan Reilly or Jake Gardiner and why?
John Klingberg or Damon Severson and why?
John Gibson or Andrei Vasilevskiy and why?

Lastly, is Taylor Hall destined for a "if only" career like Peter Forsberg's? Their injury arcs are remarkably similar.

From: Dan Pennucci
To: Janet Eagleson
Sent: Thursday, February 12
Subject: Winning

Your quick hits:

Rielly over Gardiner-I love Morgan Rielly's upside but Hockey Central had it right on Wednesday when they said he needs to play better in his own end.

Klingberg now, Severson later- Klingberg would be challenging over 50 points had he played all season. Severson is a baby Shea Weber, Devils D is surprisingly young and solid. Fantasy: Klingberg. Real: Severson

Gibson over Vasilevskiy: he has the shortest route to being a full-time starter on a legitimately good team. Ben Bishop isn't leaving Tampa soon and Frederik Andersen isn't the long-term answer in The OC.

Hall is close to a point-per-game player but utterly talented. Forsberg was on better teams early in his career (hello Joe Sakic) and we never saw his true potential. Hall will find success after leaving Edmonton. He won't be as big as a "what-if" as Forsberg.

Last Word

The Evander Kane to Buffalo trade has dominated the NHL media since it went down on Wednesday. The Jets send away tracksuit-wearing winger Kane and his healing shoulder to Buffalo with Zach Bogosian (an upstate New York native) and an unsigned goalie prospect for Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford (UFA after this season) two prospects and a first rounder. Kane had a falling out with teammates last Tuesday in Vancouver and went under the knife this past weekend to heal his ailing shoulder, but his tenure with the Jets has been anything but smooth (as noted by Sportsnet). Kane's never been short on talent, just judgment it seems.

He gives Buffalo a young winger to go with what could be Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel (at the worst, Sam Reinhart) and a young defensemen in Bogosian while the Jets add a former Calder Trophy winner and a veteran forward who can play top six minutes.

So, who won?

I hate this construct.

It's been thrown around ceaselessly since Wednesday. You can't assign winners or losers to a trade until a few years down the road, like the whole Tom Kurvers to Toronto for the pick that turned into Scott Niedermayer. The media needs to fill airtime so throwing around hypotheticals that can be argued from any side on the menu. For all we know, the pick the Jets get from Buffalo could be a steal. Maybe Brendan Lemieux emerges as a huge impact player or Bogosian fulfills his potential as the player who was drafted in between Drew Doughty and Alex Pietrangelo in 2008.

The Panthers must have heard you on Tuesday with the whooping they laid on Anaheim. I'm watching that team more and more of late and love seeing Nick Bjugstad operate. Aaron Ekblad is going to be a special player. Nice to see the Kitties hit on that pick. Bobby Lou gives them a great netminder and I'd love them to challenge for the last spot in the East, given Boston's up-and-down play.