Frozen Fantasy: Don't be Predictable

Most fantasy owners are actually pretty predictable. We tend to follow the same patterns. We tend to pick the same guys -- or types of guys -- every year we play. And that makes us easy prey for smart owners who pay attention.

What's that definition of insanity?

Stop doing the same things over and over, while still expecting a different outcome. It ain't gonna happen. I realized this a few years back when every guy in one of my leagues started chirping when someone traded Shea Weber ... but not to me.

I had become easy prey -- just dangle a stud blueliner and I'd obsess about getting him and his big butt (and even bigger shot).

Time to change.

Last year, I went cheap and cheerful on the blue line instead of loading up on studs. Man, that was hard -- I admit I was sorely tempted to deal for a stud. But I loaded up on high-end forwards instead. And guess what? I won. The whole thing.

Talk about shifting my own perspective.

This year, I've decided to test another approach and blow up another team for high-end draft picks. And when I say blow up, I mean really blow up. I've traded two of my three keepers from last season for draft picks. One of those keepers was Patrick Kane.

Gulp.

I hadn't won with him in two seasons, so why not? My best finish was second two years ago. Last year? I dropped to 11th of 14 teams. This year? I'm 10th and slipping fast. It's time to go in a different direction.

Do you know your patterns?

Don't be afraid to take a different approach. Ever. It'll keep things fresh. Epic fail won't be a part of your vocabulary. Besides, you and I both know it's pretty darn boring when we follow our "patented" approach and end up near the bottom, looking a buddy's backside. Over and over again.

The chirping can be unbearable. Scratch that -- the chirping IS unbearable.

The longer you wait for a miracle, the more it hurts when it doesn't happen. And no, I'm not talking about the Leafs' inability to win a Cup. Or even games.

Losing hurts. It stings the pride. But it's actually a blessing in disguise. It forces you to look at your patterns, especially if you have a failure to launch year after year.

Now let's look at who caught my eye this week:

Steve Bernier, RW, New Jersey (0 percent Yahoo owned) - Big Bear has always shown peaks of potential, but deep, DEEP valleys of inconsistency have flanked them. Year after year. After year. So it's hard to believe in him and his six goals (seven points) in his last eight games. But still -- he responded when he was elevated to a scoring line alongside Adam Henrique and Scott Gomez. And he hasn't faltered. This stretch been his most consistent production in a long time. I'm taking advantage.

Patrick Eaves, RW, Dallas (4 percent Yahoo owned) - Two names -- Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Yep -- Patty-boy has the sweetest linemates in all of Texas, and that has delivered four points in five games. All four have come with the man advantage, and he's fired 14 pucks at opposing twinetenders. I could wax poetic about his talents, but who freaking cares -- he's a first-liner who's sitting on the wire in just about every league (except the ones I'm in). Off you go.

Carl Gunnarsson, D, St. Louis (0 percent Yahoo owned) - Gunnar snagged a power-play assist Friday night. That's not that special on the surface, but someone has to replace Kevin Shattenkirk. And Gunnar got that job Friday. He's never delivered more than 20 points in a season, but he did deliver at a 33-point pace during the lockout-shortened season. I'm desperate on the back end. I'm rolling the dice.

Alex Killorn, LW/C, Tampa Bay (7 percent Yahoo owned) - Killorn heads into Saturday's game against the stumbling Kings on a four-game, five-assist scoring streak. He has eight points (two goals, six assists) in his last seven games and 13 in 16 since Christmas. So, now that I have your attention. The guy has the talent for the first line, but the smarts to play any position on the ice ... maybe even net. He'll get ample opportunity to continue to ring up points, particularly while surrounded by some of the best young talent in the NHL. He's another player I picked up Friday. There's no point recommending him if I'm not willing to add him to my team.

Brandon Pirri, C, Florida (2 percent Yahoo owned) - Pirri was buried in Chicago, but has shown his offensive chops in the Sunshine State. He and Nick Bjugstad seem to have some solid chemistry and Pirri is absolutely burying the biscuit lately. Try six goals (and seven points) in his last seven games. No, that's not a typo. He can also handle the puck and has great vision, but it's all about finish. He's the best scorer no one knows. Wait, change that. He's the best scorer only you and I know. He's on my roster ... how about yours?

Rickard Rakell, C, Anaheim (2 percent Yahoo owned) - Rakell has good size and top-six skill, and plays a mature, defensive game. So, it's kind of natural to see him skate with Andrew Cogliano and Jakob Silfverberg. But that skill shuffled him up beside Corey Perry the last few games, and he immediately showed off his vision and soft hands. He won't be able to sustain his current pace of six points (two goals, four assists) in his last six games. But he's worth snagging if there's any chance he might stick on a line with Worm while Ryan Getzlaf heals his groin.

Jakob Silfverberg, LW/RW, Anaheim (12 percent Yahoo owned) - Like you, I've been waiting for this guy to show off his offensive abilities. After all, he was the centerpiece of the Bobby Ryan deal, and back then he was touted as having enough skill to take Ryan's spot on the top line. He hasn't really shown that -- he's been just too focused on perfecting his defensive game to deliver consistent offense. But he sniped twice Thursday night and now has five points (two goals, three assists) in his last five games. Is this his future? Yes, but in a few years. Right now, he's a short-term value add while the Quackers juggle lines. And who knows -- maybe they'll decide to give him more consistent scoring-line time. #gravy.

Matt Tennyson, D, San Jose (0 percent Yahoo owned) - Tennyson has offensive talent, but he's not the second-pairing defender some would have you believe. He's more of a five-six guy who might -- and I repeat, might -- get occasional time on the second power-play unit when someone ahead of him struggles or stumbles. But he's well protected in the San Jose system, and that has given him an opportunity to test his wheels. He has four points (one goal, three assists) and is plus-2 in his last five games. I thought that would get your attention.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay (11 percent Yahoo owned) - There's an interesting undercurrent to Vasilevskiy's ascension to the big club. The Bolts have been lights-out at home, but far less than impressive on the road. Enter Vasilevskiy, who is 3-1 on the road after a 5-3 win Thursday in Dallas. Those three wins make up a whopping 25 percent of the team's limited road victories this season. I know -- that surprised me, too, when I first dug it out. Bishop is still a stud, and he'll get the majority of the starts. But Vasilevskiy is auditioning for three things: the roles of backup for 2015-16, platoon in 2016-17 and starter 2017-18. The Bolts will soon embark on a massive road trip -- seven of the team's nine games between Feb. 10 and March 1 are out of town. Vasilevskiy might just get a few games in a row if he continues to be a road warrior. Yes, it's a hunch. But that's pretty much all we have at this point in the season.

Back to patterns.

Leagues change. Techniques fail. Yet you and I both know owners who keep doing the same thing year after year.

What was that definition of insanity again?

You can keep perfecting your best technique. Not me. I'm going to tear apart and analyze what worked and what didn't from every approach I try. I don't want to be predictable.

Besides, this year's winners will be lulled into a smug, but false sense of security from their perceived supremacy. They'll almost invariably approach their teams exactly the same way next year. But me (and you)? We'll be ready to screw with them large next year because we understand the subtleties of a number of techniques.

Stop the insanity. Change things up. Keep your opponents guessing. You might lose a lot of money -- and pride -- if you don't.

Until next week.