Flyers vs Lightning Odds, Expert Picks, and Predictions for January 23rd

Flyers vs Lightning Odds, Expert Picks, and Predictions for January 23rd

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks and Props for Lightning at Flyers  

The Tampa Bay Lightning (24-18-5) wrap up a three-game road trip against the Philadelphia Flyers (25-16-6) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pa. on Tuesday night. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET., and the game can be viewed on ESPN+.

The Lightning suffered a 2-1 setback against the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday, snapping a five-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Flyers have dropped two in a row after a five-game winning streak of their own.

Philadelphia outscored the opposition 18-8 during the impressive five-game winning streak, but it lost back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday against the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators while being outscored 12-7.

Tampa Bay's lone goal against the Red Wings was the team's lowest offensive output since Dec. 30, as the Lightning had been good for 35 goals across the prior nine outings. It looks to bounce back against a Philadelphia team it has handled in recent years, going 8-2-0 in the past 10 meetings overall. The Lightning have won seven consecutive skates at Wells Fargo Center, too, as the Flyers have to go back to Jan. 7, 2017 for the most recent home victory against the Lightning.

The Lightning are projected to go with Andrei Vasilevskiy (13-10-0, 2.83 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO). He had won four of the past five outings before Sunday's setback in Detroit, although he allowed just two goals, while the offense provided little in the way of support.

The Flyers have confirmed Samuel Ersson (12-6-3, 2.36 GAA, .909 SV%, 3 SO) for the crease. He coughed up four goals on 33 shots against the Senators last time out, but he is still an impressive 3-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA, .928 SV% and one shutout in five starts and six appearances in January. Despite that hiccup against the Sens, Ersson still has allowed three or fewer goals in 17 of his past 18 starts and 20 appearances. The last time he had allowed four or more goals in a start came way back on Oct. 28 against the Anaheim Ducks, so he was due for one bad outing.

The lean here, as far as a straight-up bet, is to play the Lightning. Tampa Bay has dominated this series, and until Philadelphia can show it can beat the Lightning on a regular basis, you have to back the visitors.

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NHL Money Line Bets for Lightning at Flyers

  • Lightning -105 (at Caesars)

Looking to the total, when the Lightning and Flyers get together, plenty of goals are sure to follow.

In the past eight meetings in Philadelphia, the total has ended up going high in six of those battles. In addition, the Over has connected in three in a row for the Fly Guys, while going 4-1-1 in the past six games overall. In that span, Philly is averaging 3.7 goals per game (GPG), while allowing 3.0 GPG.

For Tampa Bay, the single goal against the Red Wings was an anomaly. The Lightning had produced at least three goals in the previous seven games, while posting 36 goals, or 3.6 GPG, in the past 10 games overall. On the flip side, the Lightning has allowed just seven goals in the past four games, or 1.8 GPG, but it has allowed 35 goals in the previous 12 contests, or 2.9 GPG.

Based on the trends in this series, and particularly at Wells Fargo Center, the play is on the Over, especially if you can get it at a flat six.

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NHL Totals Bets for Lightning at Flyers

  • Over 6 (-120 at BetMGM)

NHL Player Props for Lightning at Flyers

Looking to the player props, we'll go with one stats bet, and one Anytime Goal Scorer for this particular game, but shop around on the books for the best value. Sometimes the prices can vary greatly, so make sure you get the best odds.

Be sure to bookmark our NHL player props page to find the best odds on your favorite wagers each day of the season. RotoWire just launched a new props section so make sure to check out our Best NHL props tool to help you make your best betting decisions.

Looking to the visitors, perhaps nobody has been hotter than Nikita Kucherov. He has a ridiculous 22 goals and 65 points across the past 36 games, with 28 of those points coming on the man advantage. We'll actually look at two things for Kucherov. First off, it's hard to believe, but his Anytime Goal Scorer price is still plus-money, so take advantage.  And he is even-money just to get a single power-play point.

For the home team, we're looking to the defensive end. Nick Seeler seems to take great enjoyment out of sacrificing his body. He has managed to block 17 shots across the past four games, highlighted by an amazing eight blocks against the St. Louis Blues on Jan. 15. He has three or more blocked shots in three of the past four games, and four of the past six. He simply needs to get to three to cash at plus-money.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Daniel Dobish
Hockey writer, unskilled fourth liner, fantasy and gambling industry veteran, handicapper, FSWA's 2011 fantasy hockey writer of the year nominee and four-time FSWA award winner. Twitter: @danieledobish
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