This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Yardage: 7,558
Par: 71
2023 champion: Wyndham Clark
Tournament Preview
We begin this week with two tremendous bits of news:
- Scottie Scheffler and his wife Meredith are about to have their first child!
- Somebody else will win a golf tournament this week!
Golf people have been joking for weeks that the only one who could stop Scheffler during his historic run that's included victories at THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters is his soon-to-be-born child. That turned out to be both humorous and true, as Scheffler decided to stay home for the impending birth and skip this week's Wells Fargo Championship, a no-cut Signature Event.
While Scheffler presumably will be ready to go for next week's second major, the PGA Championship, 69 other golfers will be on hand at Quail Hollow. It had been 70 until maybe the second best player in the field, Masters runner-up Ludvig Aberg, withdrew on Monday afternoon citing a knee injury.
So who benefits most from a Scheffler-less field? Maybe Wyndham Clark. He's not only the defending champion here, but he finished runner-up twice of late to Scheffler, at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. And he tied for third at another Scheffler victory at Harbour Town. Or maybe it's Rory McIlroy, a three-time winner at Quail Hollow who a couple of weeks ago may have found something missing from his game while winning the Zurich Classic team event alongside Shane Lowry. What about Max Homa, who is a two-time Wells Fargo winner (once at Quail Hollow) and tends to do his best work on long, hard golf courses?
And then there are Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, none of whom has won in seemingly forever, or even Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young, neither of whom has won on the PGA Tour in literally forever.
Those last two paragraphs are simply a longwinded way of illustrating just how wide open this tournament is because Scheffler is absent.
While all the other top guys are here, the much-desired churn that the PGA Tour had promised us continues. But could even the Tour have imagined a Signature Event with Kevin Tway and Ben Kohles? They got in via the Aon Swing 5 along with Billy Horschel, who won two weeks ago at Puntacana; Taylor Pendrith, who won last week's Byron Nelson; and Alex Noren.
The sponsor invites are getting to be very, um, chalky: Webb Simpson got his fourth invite into a big-money event and Gary Woodland and Adam Scott have also gotten multiple invites. Matt Kuchar, whose game has plummeted this year, was thrown quite the bone with the final sponsor's invite.
Interestingly, Quail Hollow has played host to the Wells Fargo just twice in the past four years. It was a pandemic casualty in 2020 and in 2022 the tournament was played at TPC Avenel to make way for the Presidents Cup later that fall.
At more than 7,500 yards for a par-71, Quail Hollow usually is the biggest brute on the schedule. So this week will serve as a pretty good tuneup for next week's PGA at Valhalla, which is also a par-71 but will play in excess of 7,600 yards. (The PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow next year.)
Quail Hollow is a 1961 George Cobb design with a 2016 Tom Fazio renovation. It normally ranks among the top-10 hardest courses on Tour, though last year it was only 15th. Of course, the highlight is the closing three-hole stretch known as The Green Mile: two par-4s of about 500 yards sandwiching a long par-3 over water. Just about everyone would sign up right now for four straight days of par-par-par. Last year, the 529-yard 16th and 494-yard 18th were the two hardest holes on the course, with the 190-yard 17th not far behind. Of the 164 double bogeys or worse in last year's tournament, 72 of them -- 44 percent -- came on those three holes.
Before the closing stretch, there's the 344-yard drivable 14th, which saw four eagles last year, and the 577-yard 15th, which produced seven, so the final five holes could deliver some wild swings on the leaderboard.
Half the holes are par-4s of at least 450 yards (okay, one of them is 449) -- and five of those are 480-plus. Three of the par-3s are 190 or more, with No. 6 topping out at a just-not-fair 249. The key to Quail Hollow success was always the par-5s -- birdie the heck out of them, strive for pars most everywhere else. But the par-72 is now a par-71 with only three par-5s. It's still critical to score on those holes, none of which reaches 600 yards. Even when there were four par-5s, sometimes the winning score was single digits. But last year the course was easier than usual and Clark won at 19-under, though he was four ahead of runner-up Schauffele and seven clear of everyone else. So maybe Clark and to an extent Schauffele were just that much better than everyone else in the 156-man field.
The bermudagrass greens with poa trivialis overseed are large, averaging 6,578 square feet, according to the official golf course superintendents sheet, with 61 bunkers and four water hazards encompassing seven holes. The superintendents sheet goes on to detail changes to the course since last year. Trees were strategically added to eight holes. All the greens have been resurfaced with Tif Eagle Bermudagrass and they softened the slopes on 12 greens.
As for the weather, there's a chance of rain Thursday and Friday but it doesn't appear enough as of Monday night to force a lineup adjustment. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 70s to the low 80s with moderate wind.
Key Stats to Winning at Quail Hollow
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Approach from 175-200 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2023 - Wyndham Clark
2022 - Max Homa (TPC Potomac)
2021 - Rory McIlroy
2020 - None
2019 - Max Homa
2018 - Jason Day
2017 - Brian Harman (Eagle Point GC)
2016 - James Hahn
2015 - Rory McIlroy
2014 - J.B. Holmes
Champion's Profile
The golfers threw us a bit of a curveball last year. Success at Quail Hollow has normally been predicated on distance, with the longest hitters sitting high on the leaderboard. But last year was more of a mixed bag. Clark ranked 20th in driving distance, and wasn't all that accurate either. Maybe it's a case of everyone hitting the ball farther these days that almost all of them hit it far enough. Time will tell whether 2023 was a one-year aberration.
Clark led the field in greens in regulation, SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. He also was third in SG: Putting. With that electric stat line, it's easier to understand how he got to 19-under and won by four strokes. Of the top five guys on the leaderboard, four of them were top-5 in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green as well as top-11 in Approach.
In 2021, McIlroy ranked third in the field in greens in regulation, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also was third in SG: Putting. Those are great, great numbers, but he won at only 10-under. The top-four guys on the leaderboard -- Abraham Ancer at 9-under and Viktor Hovland and Keith Mitchell tied for third at 8-under -- all were great at greens in regulation, Approach and Tee-to-Green. McIlroy was 6-under on the par-5s.
In 2019, Homa ranked first in the field by a wide margin in Strokes Gained: Putting and made more than 380 feet worth of putts. Homa was also at 9-under, but only 3-under on the par-5s, meaning he was 6-under on the other 60 holes, which is a great score. If you can pick up a few strokes on the par-4s over the course of the week, that's the difference between winning and contending.
Golfodds.com puts the over/under for the winning score at 269.5 -- 14.5 under par -- so they are not forecasting anywhere near a 19-under repeat.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000+
Rory McIlroy - $11,800 (d: +650)
McIlroy has not had the best season. His big plan to play more often leading to the Masters didn't pan out. But he had a blast two weeks ago playing -- and winning -- the Zurich Classic alongside good pal Lowry. He looked rejuvenated. And now he heads to one of his go-to tracks in Quail Hollow. Scheffler isn't here. Aberg isn't here. There's really no excuse for McIlroy not to contend.
Xander Schauffele - $11,500 (+900)
It's always dicey picking a player this costly when you know he won't win, because it's very hard to "recoup" your huge investment. No, we don't know for sure that Schauffele won't win; it's just that he hasn't won in almost two years. But he's in the mix almost every week and was runner-up here a year ago.
Wyndham Clark - $10,500 (+1600)
How many titles would Clark have right now if not for Scheffler? Of course, you simply can't take Scheffler out of the equation and put the runner-up into the winner's circle. But Clark was second twice to Scheffler in the past two months and was third in another tournament. Aside from his face-plant at the Masters, Clark has been arguably the second-best golfer on Tour this season.
$9,000-$9,900
Tommy Fleetwood - $9,500 (+2500)
Fleetwood has played very well at Quail Hollow, tying for fifth last year and 14th in 2021. So we're willing to overlook some rather horrible stats -- like, 174th on Tour in SG: Approach. Fleetwood remains an elite scrambler, which is absolutely necessary when you're approach play is so off. But he has show signs of turning things around, notably tying for third at the Masters.
Max Homa - $9,400 (+2200)
Homa won here in 2019 and tied for eighth here last year. He also won this event -- on a different track -- two years ago. He's always played his best on long, hard golf courses. This hasn't been his best season, but he did tie for eighth at a long and hard Bay Hill track, then contended at Augusta and notched his best major finish ever, a tie for third.
$8,000-$8,900
Hideki Matsuyama - $8,900 (+3500)
Thanks to Scheffler's absence, Matsuyama ranks No. 1 in our model in SG: Tee-to-Green -- and No. 1 overall now that Aberg has pulled out. Matsuyama has barely missed a beat since winning the Genesis --12th at Bay Hill and top-10s at THE PLAYERS and Valero before a T38 at the Masters. So far this season, Matsuyama has been overcoming terrible putting.
Justin Thomas - $8,500 (+2200)
It may not seem as if Thomas is playing well this season -- missed cuts at high-profile events at Riviera, THE PLAYERS and the Masters. But in his six other starts, he finished top-12 in five of them. He remains one of the premier iron players in the world -- ranked seventh on Tour in SG: Approach and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Like with Matsuyama, it's all about the putting, and the putting has been abominable. Thomas tied for 14th here last year and of course won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017.
$7,000-$7,900
Akshay Bhatia - $7,500 (+4000)
Bhatia scores very well in our model, notably because of strong iron play on approach, long par-4s, 175-200 approaches and overall tee-to-green play. It all adds up to ranking sixth on Tour in SG: Approach. Despite being only 21, Bhatia has played the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow twice already, tying for 43rd last year. He is ranked top-30 on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Stephan Jaeger - $7,500 (+4500)
Jaeger has continued to play well since fending off Scheffler and winning the Houston Open last month. He missed the cut at the Masters the next week but has two top-20s since, including at the previous Signature Event, the RBC Heritage. Jaeger just missed a top-25 here last year in a 156-man field. He's ranked 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 20th in par-4 scoring.
Harris English - $7,400 (+5000)
English remains one of the best-kept secrets and lowest-priced options in golf. He has finished in the top-25 seven times in his 11 starts this season, including Bay Hill, THE PLAYERS and the Masters -- all that while somehow ranking 129th in SG: Approach. Some guys just figure out how to get the job done no matter what. He's also 29th in SG: Putting, which helps a lot. English tied for third here last year.
$6,000-$6,900
Kurt Kitayama - 6,800 (+6000)
Kitayama hasn't had many high finishes this season. But in 10 of his 11 starts, some of them Signature Event or bigger, he also hasn't finished worse than in the 30s. If he could do that this week at this price, that would work out. In fact, our model places him in the 30s this week. Kitayama hits the ball pretty far and pretty straight off the tee, and he's ranked in the 30s (natch) in SG: Approach.
Austin Eckroat - $6,600 (+8000)
Since Eckroat won his first PGA Tour event at the Cognizant a few months back, he's continued to play well. That's rare for a young player winning his initial tournament. He made the cut at Bay Hill the week after, then at THE PLAYERS and he tied for 17th at another Signature Event, the RBC Heritage. His lone missed cut all year came at the Masters. Eckroat is ranked 16th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th on approaches from 175-200 yards. He's also 11h overall in our model, thanks mostly to his sterling iron play.
Matthieu Pavon - $6,500 (+10000)
Since Pavon was the surprise winner at Torrey Pines, it was only a matter of time till the clock struck 12, right? Well, there's still plenty of daylight where Pavon is concerned. He tied for 12th at the Masters and just became the second Frenchman ever in the top 20 of the world rankings (Victor Dubuisson). Pavon is the only golfer on the PGA Tour ranked top-20 in both SG: Approach and Putting. He's also top-30 in par-4 scoring and top-40 in bogey avoidance.
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