Weekly PGA Preview: American Express

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

The American Express

PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
La Quinta, CA

The PGA Tour heads east to California for another edition of The American Express.

Just two tournaments in and we've already had a fantastic finish, hopefully this is a sign of things to come. Though we didn't have any big names in the mix, we certainly had some excitement as Nick Taylor miraculously got into a playoff, then finished off an up-and-comer in Nico Echavarria for his fourth PGA Tour win. Taylor had a breakthrough year in 2023, and although he picked up another win in 2024, the way he closed that season left a lot to be desired. Taylor won the Phoenix Open in Februrary, but he failed to post another top-10 the rest of the season. His win this past week reminded us of, A. how good Taylor can be when he's on, and B. picking golfers each week is extremely difficult. As for what we can expect in the coming weeks, first things first, we should start to see the best golfers on the PGA Tour start to play more, but we're off to a bit of a slow start with Scottie Scheffler on the shelf for a few weeks and now Xander Schauffele out this week. No need to worry though, the signature events will draw all able bodies back into the fold soon. Let's just hope Scheffler and Schauffele are able soon.                                                              

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Nick Dunlap shot a final-round 70 on his way to one-stroke victory over Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 

FAVORITES

Justin Thomas (12-1) 

It's funny how the golf world can get past the fact that Thomas wasn't himself last year. I'm in the camp that believes Thomas will get back to his old self at some point this season, but I'm not sure he should be favored quite yet. With that said, he did finish T3 here a year ago, but he's only played this event three times in the past 10 years, which to me would indicate that he's not overly fond of this track. But who knows, maybe the old JT pops up this week.         

Sungjae Im (12-1)

Im should probably be the favorite this week for a couple reasons. The first is his track record here. While he's failed to produce the high-end finishes at this event, he's also never had a bad week here. In six starts here, Im has six top-25s, with four of those being top-12s as well. He's also shown some good form this season already, as he posted a third-place finish at The Sentry just two weeks ago. 

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

Like Thomas, Cantlay underperformed this past season, but unlike JT, the odds makers don't have as much faith in Cantlay this week, which is odd because Cantlay has clearly been better than JT for the past four seasons, but I digress. Cantlay hasn't fared well here over the past couple years, but prior to that, he had a solid track record at this event with three consecutive top-10s from 2019-2022, including a runner-up in 2021.   

THE NEXT TIER

Wyndham Clark (33-1)

The drop-off past the group at the top of the odds chart is pretty drastic this week, but there are still some good options. Clark started this past season on fire, but cooled off considerably down the stretch. With that said, he doesn't get the respect he deserves for the events that he's won over the past couple seasons, which is why his odds are generally higher than they should be. Clark doesn't have a great track record here, but he's played at times, which against a weaker field is good enough for me considering his upside.  

Max Greyserman (33-1)

Greyserman closed this past season with a flourish and I'm curious to see how he starts this season. Yes, he did play the Sentry already, but that event is unlike what we'll see over the next few months. Greyserman doesn't have much of a track record here, so this pick is based solely on potential, but he's lived up to that potential over the past six months, let's see if he can keep it going.

Davis Thompson (40-1) 

The odds on Thompson are a bit curious as he looks like a better option than Greyserman this week, yet Greyserman has shorter odds. I like both of these guys, but considering the odds, Thompson is clearly the better play. Thompson had a solid rookie season in 2023 and backed it up with a better sophomore season. He's definitely trending up and his track record here would suggest that he's got a real chance to win. Thompson finished runner-up here in 2023 and T21 this past year.                   

LONG SHOTS

Nico Echavarria (60-1)   

I mentioned a week ago that I was going to stick with Echavarria one more week, but what I meant to say was, I'll stick with him one more week unless he almost wins, which he almost did at Waialae. Echavarria is simply not slowing down. He picked up his second PGA Tour win last fall and has continued to play at a high level since. We'll ignore the track record, because Echavarria is rolling and I'm here for the long-shot odds.  

J.J. Spaun (60-1)             

There are some intriguing options in this same range, some pretty big names, but I'm going to side with Spaun, who has a track record of playing well in spurts, and after this past week's top-3 finish, he could be in the midst of a run. Spaun's track record in Palm Springs isn't great, but again, when he's on, he's pretty darn good. I don't think the course matters much...if he can roll his form over to this week.   

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Sungjae Im - Im has everything going for him at The American Express, which is going to make him pretty popular among the OAD players. Im is generally a reliable player, so I can't argue with this pick. He'll have some value down the road, but he's not a guy that you need to save for the majors and he's a borderline signature event guy.                                           

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Davis Thompson - We're not in signature event land yet, so we should see plenty of middle-tier guys among the OAD picks this week. Thompson is on his way up and he's going to be playing in plenty of signature events this year, but he feels like a better non-signature event play as of now.                             

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Nico Echavarria - The secret is out and OAD players are going to start looking at Nico, but I'm not sure many are ready to pull the trigger quite yet. I already used him at The Sentry, but that was a unique circumstance. If you go this route, I would expect that you'll gain some ground this week.  

Buyer Beware: Tom Kim - We're all waiting for Kim to live up to the hype and while he's had his moments, he hasn't quite panned out like we thought he would a few years ago. Then again, he's still only 21, so he's got plenty of time, but I'm not sure we should expect much from him this week since his form doesn't appear to be great at the moment.  

This Week: Davis Thompson - I've written plenty about Thompson already and honestly, I'm just hoping that not many other OAD players will be on him this week. He didn't fare as that well in Hawaii, but we've moved to California this week and that's a whole different ballgame. I'm expecting Thompson to pick up the pace this week and be in contention on Sunday. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Patrick Cantlay ($11,600)
Middle Range: Davis Thompson ($10,300)
Lower Range: Lee Hodges ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Adam Hadwin - The double-up failed miserably this past week, so let's try something new. I'm going with a guy that I haven't written a word about to this point, but Hadwin deserves a look because of his track record in this event. He' has nine starts here and he's yet to miss a cut. He's also posted five top-10s during that span. I couldn't find a spot for him above, but Hadwin works in all formats this week.

Previous Results