This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Revisiting the Zero-RB Strategy
This strategy, first articulated by Shawn Siegele, is one where you use your first four or five picks on WR, TE and/or QB before addressing the RB position later in the draft and throughout the season via the waiver wire. The theory is backs get hurt more often than receivers, making them riskier early-round investments. Moreover, when backs get hurt, their backups acquire immediate value, and by rostering a lot of them - and also aggressively hunting for them on waivers - you'll eventually hit on one or two, to go along with your more durable stars at the other positions.
I think the basis for the strategy is sound, particularly in 3-WR/FLEX leagues with PPR, but 2014 wasn't the ideal season in which to use it. For starters, one of the issues with going early on RBs, besides the greater likelihood of devastating injuries, is it's typically harder to find reliably good WR on waivers. Put differently, because WR is more volatile on a week-to-week basis, it's harder to bank on their emergence based on one big game. Examples abound: Donte Moncrief, Kenny Stills, Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, Andre Holmes, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, James Jones, Doug Baldwin, Davante Adams, John Brown, etc. Even the league's best wideouts sometimes follow an 11-160-2 game with four catches for 35 yards.
But this year, it was relatively easy to find consistently good wideouts on waivers or your bench: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon LaFell, DeAndre Hopkins, Martavis Bryant, Steve Smith and Golden Tate, to name a few. Moreover, even if you went heavy at other positons for a few rounds, players like T.Y. Hilton, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson were often available in Round 5.
There also wasn't a huge influx of productive backs outside the first four rounds. In fact, among the top-10 backs in rushing yardage, only Justin Forsett would have lasted beyond the fourth round. And among the next 10, only Tre Mason (whose useful fantasy contributions have been limited to a handful of games) and possibly Chris Ivory would likely have been unrostered. The best you could do beyond Forsett and Mason would have been Ahmad Bradshaw for nine games (he got hurt in his 10th), Denard Robinson for a few and C.J. Anderson, who's been a monster down the stretch. Ronnie Hillman, Branden Oliver and Knile Davis had a couple good games too, but not many where you knew to start them ahead of time.
While running backs are still the higher-risk position and therefore their replacements should offer more value, the new by-committee approach taken by so many teams has made handicapping them more difficult. While a few people had Jonas Gray active for his 200-yard, four-TD game, I'd bet more had him active the following week where he did not receive even a single touch. When backup RBs are more likely to assume the starter's role in full, the zero-RB strategy has a better chance of success.
The other complicating factor is the top workhorse RBs - DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy - have vastly outperformed their peers. As a result, you're likely in better shape with a RB-heavy team of Murray/Bell and three mid-round/waiver WR, than Jordy Nelson/Julio Jones and two mid-round RBs.
While there are still more outright busts among top RB - Adrian Peterson (for bizarre and unforeseeable reasons), Montee Ball, and I'd even argue LeSean Mccoy (despite 1,068 rushing yards in 13 games), it's not like Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson delivered first-round value, either.
Finally, because receivers have more week-to-week volatility, especially in non-PPR, a Demaryius Thomas no-show in the playoffs is more likely than a similar one from McCoy (who by that time already wasn't a first-round player anymore anyway.)
The bottom line, the zero-RB strategy is more sound under certain conditions, namely: (1) 3-WR; (2) A WR-eligible-flex spot; (3) PPR; (4) Drawing a mid-to-late pick in the first round; (5) An environment where teams that lose RBs replace them in full with backups rather than timeshares; and (6) Where there are fewer reliable receivers emerging in the middle and later rounds.
All six conditions need not be present, but the more of them, the better. Should enough obtain, I'd argue the zero-RB strategy gives you a better chance to make the playoffs than the traditional best-player-available one. But even so, you might be trading in some upside. In traditional formats with a crap-shoot playoff tournament, that's probably a worthwhile swap - just get in, and anything can happen. But in national contests or leagues that value total points, the extent to which those conditions must be met is greater.
When Quarterbacks Go Out To Lunch
Watching Jay Cutler Thursday night and Colin Kaepernick Sunday, I got the feeling both players had checked out. Kaepernick in particular looked lost, taking three delay of game penalties in addition to five sacks and two interceptions against a team with only 15 sacks on the year (30th) and seven picks (T-27th).
Losing track of the play clock that often was especially damning - it's a lack of attention to what's transpiring around him. When you consider how physically talented Kaepernick is, it's almost inconceivable he could be destroyed by such a toothless defense. But playing quarterback in the NFL is like driving the wrong way on the highway - it demands the utmost alertness, whether you're in a Ferrari or a beater.
The other glaring example of this is Robert Griffin who was so great during his rookie year, but now stands around like a victim in a horror movie waiting to get slashed to pieces.
Maybe the great quarterbacks are not necessarily rare talents so much as rare characters. And I don't mean character as in decent, humane, honest or even smart, but more like driven, confident, thick-skinned and cold-blooded.
Of course, there's the possibility some coach or system can resurrect Griffin or Kaepernick - help him re-discover his sense of enjoyment no matter what the external circumstances, especially after an offseason where expectations have been ratcheted down. But once these guys have been exposed as being too sensitive, I'd bet against it.
Week 14 Observations
• Even though I had the Packers minus-12 Monday night, I enjoyed the rare shootout where both teams had key fantasy players go off.
• Eddie Lacy had a big game, but it could have been so much bigger but for the contributions by James Starks.
• Had Julio Jones not gotten hurt, he would have pushed 300 yards. It would be a terrible shame if he had to sit against Pittsburgh because he otherwise would have a great shot at 600 yards over three games.
• While the Packers only won by six, it was an exciting back-and-forth if you bet the game. Green Bay was up 31-7 at the half, 40-30 with a few minutes left before Mason Crosby attempted (and made) an ill-advised 50-plus FG (the Packers should have punted or gone for it) to put them back up 13, before the Falcons marched the length of the field without the injured Jones to cut it to six, before the Packers nearly took it back when Starks broke free while running out the clock only to be tackled inside the 10. Even if you lost you felt like you got your money's worth.
• The most surprising part of the Raiders-Niners was Oakland's ability to sustain drives against what had been a stout Niner defense, mostly because Derek Carr was spreading the ball around nicely and the Niners could not generate any pass rush in the second half.
• LeGarrette Blount is like a bigger Marshawn Lynch. The Steelers don't miss him yet because Le'Veon Bell is so great, but New England got a significant windfall.
• I was wrong about Julian Edelman. He's obviously still a big part of the offense even with Rob Gronkowski 100 percent and the team finding an outside threat in Brandon LaFell. The Patriots might well win the Super Bowl now that their defense is good again, but I can't help but think they'd be almost unbeatable had Aaron Dobson developed into a field stretcher or had they signed a DeSean Jackson type.
• I assumed AZ-KC would be unwatchable and largely stayed away. I know people were up in arms about the Travis Kelce fumble, but I missed it, and as I had KC-plus one, I don't even want to know.
• Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady will probably win MVP this year, but given Russell Wilson's meager receiving options and how dependent that offense is on his unique skills, he should be in the mix, despite cosmetically less impressive numbers. (They're actually not that much less impressive when you add 91 rush attempts and at a net of 7.5 yards per rush.)
• Talk about shameless stat-padding, why else was Drew Brees still playing in a 41-3 game late in the fourth quarter?
• I guess it's time to bury the whole home/road split narrative about the Saints.
• Ben Roethlisberger should have 35 TDs by season's end and push 5,000 yards. The production has come unevenly, but in leagues where total points matter, that's not a problem. Bell should break 2,000 yards from scrimmage in Week 15 and has a chance - along with DeMarco Murray - to post one of the all-time marks in that category too.
• Geno Smith threw a pick six on his first pass, but otherwise played a good game, getting 8.8 YPA, running for 33 yards and making good decisions. I doubt he's the future for the Jets, but he wasn't the problem today. Teddy Bridgewater also had a good game, but his 11.4 YPA was severely padded by Wright's short catch and 87-yard run in overtime.
• Maybe I was wrong about the Bucs turning a corner defensively.
• The Dolphins are kind of like the Chiefs – they don't generate enough big plays in the passing game. And unlike Kansas City they don't have Jamaal Charles.
• You have to hand it to Eli Manning. No one else throws a pick-six up 30-0. On a screen pass, no less. I wonder how many people who used the Giants defense lost the shutout on account of that and swung a win to a loss in the process.
• I wouldn't get too excited about Andre Williams' huge game. He beat up on a weak run defense, doesn't have a ton of wiggle or pass-catching skills and the team's offensive line isn't especially good. But Odell Beckham is a safe bet to get a big workload the last three weeks.
• Mike Pettine's decision to play it "safe" and stick with Brian Hoyer was actually a huge gamble, and it failed. Given how well the Browns defense played (and how many mistakes Andrew Luck made), even a league average QB would have led the Browns to an easy win. Hoyer missed wide open receivers, threw two picks and generated almost no offense despite the Colts missing their best cover corner. While Johnny Manziel will start against the Bengals this week, it's almost in Pettine's interest that he plays poorly.
• John Lynch, who was in the booth for the IND-CLE game, took it upon himself to defend Hoyer all game, chastising the fans for booing yet another three-and-out ("Some boo birds after the punt. Guys, you're winning the game!") and blaming Josh Gordon for not catching a poorly thrown Hoyer pass late where Gordon laid out to get it, barely got his hands on it and got nicked up in the process, saying something to the effect of: "He's got to catch that ball. When you get suspended you hurt your team in other ways." Even Joe Buck and Jim Nantz don't have that degree of mindless buy-in to the outcome-based, establishment-approved narrative.
