This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries, and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.
Overview
The fantasy finale in season-long leagues offers a unique slate given that Christmas Day falls on a Sunday this year. We've got 11 games on Saturday, two on Sunday and the Lions squaring off against the Cowboys in Dallas for Monday Night Football. One could take a quick glance at the schedule and figure out exactly which three games have implied totals of over 50 points: Falcons-Panthers, Colts-Raiders and Buccaneers-Saints. The Bucs-Saints game two weeks ago was a huge disappointment (Saints won 16-11), but we'll likely see more of a shootout in the Coors Field of the NFL. The Raiders have clinched a playoff spot but they'll need to keep their momentum going, so I wouldn't expect them to lay down for this one. Cam Newton had his first 300-yard passing game since Week 6 against the Redskins on Monday, and has a date with a high-flying Falcons team that has allowed the third-most passing yards this season (the Panthers have allowed the most). Some may look to Blake Bortles as a sneaky GPP play this week given that his best game of the season (29.68 FP) came against these same Titans eight weeks ago. Though I can't fault you for giving him one last shot, there are far too many solid options at QB this week, and it may be wiser to take risks elsewhere.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Jameis Winston (TB, $32)
We could say that Winston is the Jeckyl and Hyde of NFL signal-callers, but volatility has been up league-wide, and there are just way too many candidates who fit that bill. Winston had a nice stretch of consistency but has faltered lately, and is very unpredictable from play to play within games. The Saints are the 28th-ranked defense against the pass by DVOA, and the 52.5 point implied total here is the highest of Week 16 along with ATL-CAR. The Bucs' QB has spread the ball around more in recent weeks, but needs to get his big boy Mike Evans going again. Evans has been a huge bust three weeks in a row, failing to hit double-digit fantasy points. He'll be a squeaky wheel contrarian play, and I'm definitely interested. Ben Roethlisberger is a safer play at $1 more, and sure we'd like to pay up for Tom Brady ($41), Drew Brees ($37) or Cam Newton ($35) if we can. But a Winston-Evans stack could hit big this week at much lower than usual ownership.
Isaiah Crowell (CLE, $19)
Here's a play that isn't for the faint of heart. In fact, I don't recommend it if you don't believe the Browns can hang with the Chargers on Saturday. Crowell rarely gets double-digit carries (just twice in the last six games) when the Browns are behind, even though Hue Jackson has mentioned he would like to get his lead back more work. The Chargers choked against the Raiders last week though, and may not show up for this one either. They are traveling cross-country for an early game and will be a warm-weather team playing in the cold. This may be the Browns' last chance to notch a win this season. Crowell's 4.6 YPC is respectable, he has three outings of 100-plus rushing yards this season, and has added a smidge to his value with 33 receptions. He won't be a focal point of any of my primary teams this week, but I have a sneaky feeling about him and the Browns this week. He will find his way on a couple of my GPPs at what will likely be a very low ownership rate.
Chris Hogan (NE, $16)
It may feel like we're going too far down the contrarian rabbit hole this week, but all pieces of the Patriots' passing game are in play this weekend. Malcolm Mitchell ($24) appears to be Brady's new favorite target, but his price has risen considerably and is now in the range of some fairly reliable receivers. In fact, Mitchell is $4 more than Julian Edelman this week, which makes sense since Mitchell has four touchdown receptions over his last five games while Edelman has just two on the season. Hogan is the value play here. Both he and Mitchell were shut down by the stout Broncos' secondary, though this can't be surprising in the least. This week lines up to be much more fruitful for Pats' receivers against the Jets' dead-last unit by DVOA. Prior to the Broncos game, Hogan had scored in consecutive weeks and caught five balls for 129 yards against the Ravens in Week 14. He is the team's deep threat weapon and could have plenty of opportunities to cash in against that miserable Jets secondary in Week 16.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Russell Wilson (SEA, $31)
RB: Mark Ingram (NO, $20), Chris Ivory (JAX, $13)
WR: Julio Jones (ATL, $35), Alshon Jeffery (CHI, $19), Travis Benjamin (SD, $15)
TE: Jimmy Graham (SEA, $18), Jared Cook (GB, $11)
DST: Los Angeles Rams ($14)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger ($33)
This game is an important one, as the Ravens could catch the Steelers in the AFC North with a victory. It's a situation Big Ben has encountered before and it is tough imagine him faltering when the team needs him most. Roethlisberger has extreme home splits, starting with his 17:3 TD:INT compared to 9:8 on the road. His yards per attempt is nearly two full yards higher at home (8.48 to 6.73) and his home completion percentage (70.5 percent) crushes his road one (59.4 percent). The Ravens will also likely be without their best cornerback, Jimmy Smith, which bodes incredibly well for Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown this week. The Ravens boast the league's best run defense so we should expect 20-plus targets funneled to Brown and pass-catching beast Le'Veon Bell. Roethlisberger is my favorite dollar-for-dollar QB of Week 16.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy (BUF, $33)
With Bell and David Johnson (@SEA) in tough matchups this week, it's quite a treat to see McCoy priced reasonably. Sure, Bell and Johnson are matchup proof, but those are tough prices to pay, especially if we're looking to pair Roethlisberger with Brown or Winston with Evans. McCoy has paid off his salary in spades over the last four weeks, averaging 25.3 fantasy points. He ran wild against the Browns in a plush matchup last week (169 yards from scrimmage, two touchdowns) and has topped 100 yards rushing in three of his last four. The pricing algorithm may have reduced his price slightly because of his effort earlier this season against the Dolphins (11 yards on eight carries, his worst game of the season), but the Bills were down early in that one and McCoy left in the third quarter after aggravating a hamstring injury. The Dolphins rank 22nd against the run this season and their 4.8 YPC against opposing runners is the league's second-worst mark. That just happens to be McCoy's strength, as he leads the league with 5.5 yards per carry (among those with 100 or more carries).
Todd Gurley (LA, $22)
A monster outing against the Niners could redeem Gurley in the eyes of his draft league owners given that it's the Super Bowl for most fantasy leagues this week. Of course, it's more likely your team isn't in the championship game if you drafted him as your first round pick. Nevertheless, the spot doesn't get any better. We've covered running backs facing the Niners almost every week of the season here, and the numbers keep getting worse. San Francisco has allowed the most rushing touchdowns (22), rank dead last in YPC against (5.0) and have allowed nearly 300 more rushing yards than the next-worst team (the Browns). Rookie QB Jared Goff was a full participant in practice Tuesday and should get the start again this week. The Rams should be able to control game flow with their defense in front of their home crowd, allowing them to rely heavily on Gurley offensively. Though his offensive line has been much maligned, let's not forget that the second-year RB is a very talented runner stuck in a subpar situation. He'll be a chalky cash game play because of the matchup and bargain price.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown (PIT, $40)
After a month of the premier running backs helping you cash in double-ups and compete in GPPs, it's time to jump back onto the bandwagon of the league's best wideout. David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell have been solid weekly plays but their upside could be capped, and this slate also features a reasonably priced LeSean McCoy and plenty of value at under $30 at the position. Brown had a tough time against the Bengals last week as they managed to hold him to just three receptions – his lowest total since Week 6 of last season. He's in a good spot to go nuclear though, against a Ravens squad who may be without top CB Jimmy Smith this week. Instead, Brown should see a lot of whipping boy Shareece Wright, one of our favorite cornerbacks to target in DFS. We never really need a reason to roster Brown, but at home in a must-win situation feels like a good spot to justify his pricey tag.
Michael Crabtree (OAK, $22)
In case it isn't clear, Crabtree is the Raiders' best receiver. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Amari Cooper apologist and think he's immensely talented and has a bright future, but his lack of consistency and red zone looks makes Crabtree the preferred weekly choice for daily fantasy. Cooper has surpassed 60 yards receiving just once in the last eight weeks and has half the touchdowns Crabtree does this season (eight to four). Though Colts' corner Vontae Davis hasn't been terrific this season, he's still their best defender and will likely line up often opposite Cooper on Saturday. The Raiders have the second-highest implied team total of the week (28.25) after the Patriots, and we can expect Crabtree to be the team's most consistent point-scoring threat once again.
Dez Bryant (DAL, $22)
Bryant has been one of the league's most dynamic wideouts over the past few seasons, but has dealt with his share of injuries and has disappeared from box scores occasionally. Because of his weekly volatility, Dez is usually more suited for GPPs, but his $22 tag this week sticks out like a sore thumb. The Lions-Cowboys game is the Monday night hammer, and folks looking to attack that game will likely opt to pay up for rookie stud Ezekiel Elliott if at all possible, though that is easier said than done if they're spending up on the more expensive pieces in the Saints, Patriots or Raiders offenses. Bryant will spend time being covered by Darius Slay. Slay is one of the league's best cornerbacks, but the Cowboys will certainly game plan so that Bryant can avoid him on as many snaps as possible. We're always taking a risk when we roster Bryant, but $22 is just too good of a price to pass up.
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate (TB, $18)
If someone told you last summer that Brate would lead all tight ends in touchdowns in 2016, you'd probably be preparing to get them fit for a straitjacket. Well, that's the case as we head into the final two weeks of the season. He's actually tied with Chargers' rookie Hunter Henry as each have found the end zone seven times this season. Brate ranks just seventh among tight ends in receiving yards (648) and 10th in receptions (56), but it's been a fantastic season for him nonetheless. Most importantly, he is seeing plenty of targets – at least five in seven of his last eight games. Winston will be looking for him down the field and in the red zone in one of the highest projected point totals (52.5) of Week 16.
Defense/Special Teams
New England Patriots ($18)
The Patriots are at home in December as 16.5-point favorites facing a rookie quarterback. Need I say more? They are $3 cheaper than the most expensive options (Chiefs at $21) and are a better value this week, especially since we need to save salary anywhere we can. The Titans could be in play as well, though their secondary has been shredded over the last few weeks and they're on the road. The Bills are a sneaky option this week, at home against Matt Moore. And if you're looking for the best points-per-dollar option in Week 16, it may well be the Rams, at home against Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Drew Brees (NO, $37), Cam Newton (CAR, $35)
RB: Jordan Howard (CHI, $31), Jonathan Stewart (CAR, $22)
WR: Michael Thomas, (NO, $25), Jarvis Landry (MIA, $20), Julian Edelman (NE, $20)
TE: Delanie Walker (TEN, $19)
DST: Tennessee Titans ($15)
