This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It's wild-card weekend, one of the most fun NFL weekends of the season. There's plenty of ways to participate as a fan, whether it be postseason fantasy contests or pick 'em contests like Underdog offers. We'll jump into some higher and lower selections, and we'll look at several different factors such as pass rates and defensive matchups (tools linked below) to make our picks.
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Robert Woods - higher than 8.5 receiving yards
We won't kick things off with the most exciting price or the deepest of analysis, but Woods' projection is too low. Since Tank Dell (knee) suffered his unfortunate knee injury, Woods has 19, 21 and 39 yards while running over 55 percent of snaps in two of those three contests. Woods likely needs just one catch to reach this projection, a very attainable mark given his new usage.
Saquon Barkley – higher than 11.5 receiving yards
Now we'll jump into some more matchup-specific picks. The Packers are a mediocre matchup for opposing running backs on the ground, but where they struggle the most as a unit is allowing production to backs as pass catchers. During the regular season, the unit allowed 81 receptions — the third-highest mark in the league and 686 yards (second-most in the league). Barkley's own usage as a pass catcher has been inconsistent, which does create some risk. However, he topped this projection seven times on the season and should be able to capitalize on the good matchup.
Mark Andrews – higher than 46.5 receiving yards
Isaiah Likely – higher than 28.5 receiving yards
There are a few positive indicators for both Andrews and Likely for their matchup against the Steelers. First is that Pittsburgh allowed the most targets in the league to opposing tight ends during the regular season. Now, the Ravens will head into their wild-card round matchup without Zay Flowers (knee), making Andrews even more vital to the passing offense while also pushing Likely into a projected expanded role. Andrews in particular may not put up an explosive performance, but each of these pass catchers should command enough volume to top their projections.
T.J. Hockenson – higher than 41.5 receiving yards
The Rams offer a combination of deficiencies against tight ends that make Hockenson very appealing this week. Like the Pittsburgh defense, they allow a high rate of targets to opposing tight ends (142, third-most in the league). Unlike the Steelers, they also struggle to defend the position well, allowing both catch rates and a yard per target mark that rank within the 10 most favorable in the league for the opposition. The Rams will presumably allocate most of their resources to shutting down Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, opening up even more room for Hockenson to operate.
Lower
Jayden Reed – lower than 43.5 receiving yards
The Packers are a tricky team to predict on an individual basis because they spread the ball so evenly among their offensive skill-position players. In contrast to preseason expectations, Reed has been the least able to command targets (16.9 percent target per route run rate) of the Packers' main contributors. Simultaneously, he's almost certainly the team's most dangerous playmaker, meaning he'll draw plenty of attention from an Eagles' defense that has allowed 6.7 yards per target to opposing wide receivers for the season — the lowest mark in the league by nearly half of a yard.
Baker Mayfield – lower than 254.5 passing yards
The Commanders' entire defense struggled to begin the season, but they've turned into a run funnel in recent weeks. Across the last four weeks, the defense has allowed only 6.29 yards per attempt to quarterbacks and only 6.6 yards per attempt across the last eight weeks. Opposing teams have responded by recording a -6.0 percent pass rate over expected. As for the Bucs, it makes sense for them to use Bucky Irving heavily, as he has emerged as a key to the offense across the last several weeks of the regular season.
