Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Patriots vs. Rams

It's been three weeks since we had a standalone Thursday night game, but we now get the 6-6 Patriots traveling to face the 8-4 Rams, who are 5.0-point favorites in a game with a 45.0-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite their record, the Patriots are trending up, winning four of their last five games, including victories over the Ravens, Cardinals and Chargers. Meanwhile, the Rams won three of their last four, beating the Seahawks, Buccaneers and Cardinals while losing to the 49ers, who also beat the Patriots 33-6 earlier in the season.

The teams play a very different style, so roster constructions are likely to be very different depending on the game outcomes you're playing for, whether it's a close game, a Rams blowout or a Patriots win.

QUARTERBACKS

The quarterbacks offer the clearest differences between their respective offenses, as Cam Newton ($10,600 DK, $16,000 FD) leads all quarterbacks with 11 rushing touchdowns (only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry have more league-wide), and he's third at the position with 435 rushing yards. However, his 285 pass attempts are fewer than 25 other quarterbacks while 23 have more passing yards than his 2,053 and 34 have more than his five passing touchdowns, including Tua Tagovailoa, Nick Mullens and Mitchell Trubisky.

Meanwhile, Jared Goff ($11,000 DK, $15,500 FD) is sixth in passing attempts (450) and seventh in passing yards (3,372), but he's needed 39 rushing attempts to reach 56 yards and three touchdowns. Needless to say, the Rams like to move the ball through the air and the Patriots rely heavily on the ground game, and specifically Newton, who is second on the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards, though he really dominates the touches from in close, with 19 carries from inside the five-yard line, 15 more than the next highest Patriot.

It doesn't get much tougher from a matchup perspective for either quarterback, as the Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and the Patriots the fourth-fewest. The Rams have played a few running quarterbacks, and they just allowed three passing touchdowns to a banged up Kyler Murray, but it's still a very tough situation for Newton.

Then again, both quarterbacks could be popular, both as flex plays and captain/MVP because they almost always are on these single game contests. It seems plausible that Newton would be more popular in the multiplier spot because he's the dominant offensive weapon for the Patriots, while the Rams have a number of receivers who can work in that spot, which makes Goff a slight differential if you can be one as a quarterback.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

While the Patriots rank well against quarterbacks, they've allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, which boasts well for Cooper Kupp ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD) and Robert Woods ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD), who are the two top receiving options for the Rams. Both are heavily targeted, sitting 12th and 16th in targets in the NFL, respectively, but it's been Woods getting more recently, with double digits targets in three straight games (38 over that span versus Kupp's 27). Both could be popular against a Patriots defense that allowed seven touchdowns to wideouts in three straight games before holding their past two opponents to zero.

The obvious difficulty is that they are expensive, so playing both might be tough if you really want Goff too; then again, taking both gives you a reasonable path to fading Goff since he likes throwing to them so much. If you want to fade that line of thinking, No. 3 wide receiver Josh Reynolds ($5,600 DK, $9,500 FD) seems like the next place to look, particularly because he doesn't always need a ton of targets to produce. His 12.0 aDOT leads the team, and he's certainly capable of catching a long pass and turning it into an even bigger play. One cheaper option is Van Jefferson ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD), whose 10.7 aDOT is the second-highest on the team, which is pretty significant given that Woods is third at only 6.8 (Kupp is 6.4). The issue with Reynolds and Jefferson is that Goff really just doesn't throw deep that often, as his 7.5 YPA is 17th-highest in the league.

Fantasy players could instead focus on the tight ends, with Tyler Higbee ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) and Gerald Everett ($3,400 DK, $7,500 FD) decent options; in fact, they combined for 13 targets just last week. Both are pretty touchdown dependent to make much of an impact, and the negative is that they're now facing a Patriots defense that has allowed only one tight end touchdown this season, which came back in Week 3 against Las Vegas (and it wasn't even Darren Waller). Higbee actually blocks a little more than Everett, but they get around the same number of targets so if you need the little bit of salary that Everett provides then it's probably not a big deal to choose him over Higbee. Of course, fantasy players who make enough lineups will surely have both in their player pools, though most likely not in lineups together.

Seven non-running backs have had at least one target for the Rams this season, which is two fewer than the Patriots except Kupp (105), Woods (98) and Reynolds (61) all have more than Damiere Byrd ($800 DK, $10,000 FD), who leads New England with 59. One of the biggest issues with the Patriots' pass catchers is not only that Newton doesn't throw many passes, but he also spreads his targets around pretty evenly, whether to Byrd, Jakobi Meyers ($6,800 DK, $10,500 FD) or N'Keal Harry ($1,800 DK, $8,000 FD). Just to emphasize how sporadic their production has been, Meyers had 169, 59, 38, 52 and 15 receiving yards in his last five games, respectively, while Byrd had 65, zero, 132, 33 and 16 in that span. Harry was hurt for some of that time, but with 41, zero and 15 yards in his last three games, respectively, it's not like he's making himself an exciting fantasy target.

We can add tight end Ryan Izzo ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) to the list, though he's questionable because of hamstring, hand and neck issues. His absence would presumably allow Dalton Keene ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) and Jordan Thomas ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) to get more snaps, but they aren't likely to do anything helpful. At the very least, fantasy players seem more likely to take a chance on Gunner Olszewski ($1,000 DK, $7,000), who had two touchdowns last week, which is much more than Donte Moncrief ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) can say. Of course, Olszewski scored on a 70-yard punt return and a 38-yard touchdown on his only target late in a blowout, so there's probably not much there for Thursday. In fact, the target was just his third of the season and first since Week 9.

Captaining/MVPing any of the Patriots' pass catchers seems like something you'd only to in order to be contrarian, but it probably comes with much more downside than anything else, so while we could see some in the flex, their captain/MVP percentages will likely be very low.

RUNNING BACKS

Both teams have employed a running-back-by-committee approach at times this season, but they seem to be focusing more on single players of late, specifically Damien Harris ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) for the Patriots and Cam Akers ($8,000 DK, $12,000 FD) for the Rams. I could break down the situations, but I'll happily steal from Jerry Donabedian's Hidden Stat Line this week since he does a much better job than me of laying everything out:

Patriots

	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Damien Harris	49%	16	1	4.8%	6	.26	16-80-0 — 1-15-0
Sony Michel	33%	10	1	4.8%	3	.13	10-35-0 — 1-23-0
James White	28%	0	4	19.1%	6	.26	0-0-0 — 3-1-0

• Harris was the starter, picking up 15 yards on a screen pass on the first snap of the game. He finished the first drive with seven touches for 51 yards, setting up Cam Newton for a short rushing TD.
• Harris played 66% of snaps in the first half, taking 12 of the team's 14 RB carries. James White saw each of his four targets in the first half, while Sony Michel got only 16% of snaps and two carries.
• Michel got six of his 10 carries in the fourth quarter of the blowout, while Harris didn't play at all after the third.
• Harris played six of eight snaps inside the 10-yard line, but he and Michel got just one carry apiece in that area, while Cam Newton took four and scored a pair of TDs.
• Newton has taken 70% of New England's inside-the-five carries, the eighth-highest rate for any player in the league. Carson Wentz (43%) and Josh Allen (42%) are the only other QBs who have accounted for more than 40% of their team's inside-the-five carries.
• Newton's 16 carries inside the five are second-most among all players (Cook - 17) and twice as many as any other QB (Allen - 8).

Rams

	Snap Share	Carries	Targets	Target Share	Routes	Routes/DB	Stat Line
Cam Akers	62%	21	1	2.3%	22	.46	21-72-1 — 1-22-0
Darrell Henderson	21%	3	3	6.8%	10	.21	3-49-1 — 2-25-0
Malcolm Brown	16%	3	1	2.3%	7	.15	3–3-0 — 1-30-0

• Henderson was the starter, and he played seven of 16 snaps (44%) on the first two drives, getting two carries and two targets. Akers also played seven snaps on those two drives, and he then got more playing time after Henderson was bothered by a knee injury.
• Henderson didn't play at all in the second quarter, and took just three of 16 snaps in the third. Akers played 72% of snaps in that stretch, with 12-38-1 rushing and 1-22-0 receiving.
• Akers took 11 of 18 snaps (61%) and six of the team's seven RB carries in the fourth quarter, but Jared Goff scored on a QB sneak and Henderson hit pay dirt from 38 yards out with about 10 minutes remaining. Akers then took the final six carries as the Rams tried to kill clock at the end.
• Akers played each of the 10 snaps inside the 10-yard line, taking seven carries for 21 yards and a TD on those plays.
• Brown played five of 10 snaps on third-and-medium/long. Brown technically got four of those snaps, but two were carries at the end of the game when the Rams were running clock.

So while Harris and Akers seem like the places to turn, neither are slam dunk plays. Two big issues with Harris are that James White ($6,400 DK, $9,000 FD) gets most of the relevant work in the passing game and Newton pretty much steals everything near the goal line. He's still been successful at points, but he's going to have to break a few longer runs with his touches because his touchdown upside is lower than most lead running backs. He also doesn't seem likely to get 20+ rushes, especially as Sony Michel ($4,800 DK, $8,000 FD) another week removed from injury. Yes, Michel only got garbage time work last week, but there's a chance he gets more meaningful touches this week as they continue to work him back into the flow.

A focus on the Rams' backfield certainly makes sense from a leverage standpoint as everyone tries to figure out which pass catchers to focus on, and Akers is surely going to be the most popular because of his recent usage. He even figures to get some captain/MVP consideration ahead of the other guys because if Goff isn't connecting with his guys early then they could turn to Akers. Or, if the Rams get up and need to run the game out (without a single guy getting all the touchdowns that got them the lead) then Akers could see pretty solid volume. Harris is the likeliest Patriots running back to be considered for captain/MVP, but you'll have to hope his touches from the 21-yard line work out because any closer and Newton's likely to keep the ball.

KICKERS

Two good teams with a relatively low total should have both kickers in consideration, particularly for cash games, because the players priced around them have lower floors and seem unlikely to hit any kind of ceilings. Nick Folk ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) and Matt Gay ($3,800 DK, $8,000 FD) are basically priced around guys like Michel, Everett, Jefferson and Henry, the latter two of whom could out-score them with a single long play, though the others are highly unlikely to do so without scoring at least two touchdowns.

That's the clearest reason why they make more sense in cash games than GPPs, though don't be surprised if they are rostered in tournaments if only because they allow you to pay up for the elite skill players who hopefully get their teams close to the end zone but not actually in it.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

A close game with two good defenses has them priced similarly, with the Rams ($4,400 DK) slightly ahead of the Patriots ($4,200 DK) because they are favored. The Rams have struggled getting to the quarterback in recent weeks, registering only four sacks in the past two games, but they also forced five turnovers in the span, extending their multi-turnover game streak to six. Additionally, they scored defensive touchdowns in each of the past two games, so some people will surely be tempted to buy into the variance even though we've already gotten two highly variant outcomes.

One of the difficulties in playing a team that doesn't throw much is that they don't offer as many sack and interception opportunities because there are fewer drop backs, so we may have to temper our expectations for the Rams. That doesn't necessarily mean we target the Patriots, who scored a ridiculous 31.0 fantasy points last week by scoring two touchdowns and shutting out the Chargers, an outcome that's even more unlikely to happen again. If there aren't many turnovers in this game, the kickers will likely outscore the defenses, but we can't forget that the ceiling games for the defense are still much higher.