The Stats Room: Who's Most Important to New QB/WR Pairs?

Brandon Marshall struggled to catch passes the last two seasons, catching only 46 percent in 2016 and 54 percent last season. He now plays for the Seahawks where Russell Wilson had completion rates at 64 and 61 percent the same two seasons. So, what should owners estimate as the pair's completion percentage this season?

The answer is obviously in the middle somewhere, but should the quarterback or wide receiver have more influence? By using some basic projections, the split works out to 50/50 with the wide receiver having a slight edge.

First, I'm amazed there isn't a go-to knowledge source for the balance point. With so many new pairings each season, a simple rule of thumb should exist. It seems like fantasy owners would just prefer to pick the narrative that fits their agenda. I'm here to put a few numbers behind the narratives.

My conclusion is a little surprising as most articles and talking heads I consume always point to the quarterback's stats. Recently, I ran a Twitter poll and resoundingly, the quarterback side got more weight.

If a quarterback has a 3-year 62% Comp% and the team adds a WR with a 3-year comp% of 72%. What would you expect the pair's comp% to be in the upcoming season?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 15, 2018

For these pairs, I examined how much to weigh each one's completion rate. The first item to remember is the basic projections are heavily regressed. Most projected catch rates are 57 to 65 percent. A simple shortcut is to just assume a league average 62 percent completion rate as most players regress back to this value. Of the new pairs I examined later in this article, the rates varied from 59 to 63 percent.

I found all the matched seasons since 2010 to see if the wide receiver or the quarterback percentage weighed more.

Of the 277 samples, the wide receiver projected completion percentage should be weighted at 58 percent and the quarterback at 42 percent. If a 60 percent quarterback targets a 70 percent wide receiver 100 times, the completion rate should be 66 percent. Splitting the difference exactly in half would be 65 percent, or just one catch. If an owner wants to use a 50/50 shortcut to save time, I would not blame him.

With this knowledge, here is a look at some high-profile receivers and the pair projected catch rates for 2018. If any owner wants to investigate receivers not included here, he can look them up in my historic basic projections.

Now, here is an example of how the weighting should be applied.

Seahawks

Brandon Marshall
2017: 54.5 percent
2018 Proj: 51.8 percent

Russell Wilson
2017: 61.3 percent
2018 Proj: 65.9 percent

These two are the perfect example of why not just the previous season's stats should be used. Combining multiple seasons creates a more accurate projection. Wilson's high completion rates of 2015 (68 percent) and 2016 (65 percent), along with some regression, pushes his 2018 projection up over his 2017 numbers.

Marshall only saw 33 targets last season, and therefore his 55 percent catch rate is inflated. His 128 targets and a 46 percent catch rate in 2016 will have more of a weight.

While in a vacuum, it looks like Marshall may struggle, Wilson will have a positive influence on Marshall's catch rate. By just going with the 50/50 method, Marshall's catch rate is more respectable at 58.9 percent. If the more accurate 58/42 is used, the value drops to 57.6 percent.

There are many other factors that can possibly influence the pairs projected catch rate, especially in a small sample. By using just simple projections, a base catch rate can be projected which can be tinkered with.

A new wide receiver and quarterback paring can cause some confusion on who will more influence their combined completion percentage. By using each one's basic projection, the split is almost 50/50 with the wide receiver having a bit more weight at 58 percent. And knowing is half the battle.

Here are some new QB/WR pairings and what we can expect for 2018.

Rams

Brandin Cooks
2017: 57.0 percent
2018 Proj: 63.5 percent

Jared Goff
2017: 62.1 percent
2018 Proj: 61.2 percent

Final Catch Rate (WR/QB)
50/50: 63.4 percent
58/42: 62.5 percent

Cowboys

Allen Hurns
2017: 69.6 percent
2018 Proj: 62.9 percent

Dak Prescott
2017: 62.9 percent
2018 Proj: 64.1 percent

Final Catch Rate
50/50: 63.5 percent
58/42: 63.4 percent

Jets

Terrelle Pryor
2017: 54.1 percent
2018 Proj: 56.0 percent

Josh McCown
2017: 67.3 percent
2018 Proj: 63.9 percent

Final Catch Rate
50/50: 60 percent
58/42: 59.3 percent

Eagles

Mike Wallace
2017: 56.5 percent
2018 Proj: 57.6 percent

Carson Wentz
2017: 60.2 percent
2018 Proj: 62.3 percent

Final Catch Rate
50/50: 60 percent
58/42: 59.6 percent

Ravens

Michael Crabtree
2017: 57.4 percent
2018 Proj: 58.3 percent

Joe Flacco
2017: 64.1 percent
2018 Proj: 65.5 percent

Final Catch Rate
50/50: 61.9 percent
58/42: 61.3 percent

Raiders

Jordy Nelson
2017: 60.2 percent
2018 Proj: 60.4 percent

Derek Carr
2017: 62.7 percent
2018 Proj: 63.7 percent

Final Catch Rate
50/50: 62.1 percent
58/42: 61.8 percent