This article is part of our Survivor series.
There were a bunch of close calls last week, though the favorites mostly won — except for the Broncos and Chiefs. According to our polling data, 26.3 percent of Survivors were on the Broncos, so their loss probably settled a lot of pools.
Few Survivors still had the Chiefs available. Those who saved the Chiefs for a home date against the Raiders found out why saving teams is often fool-hearty.
In any event, on to Week 17.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Jets | 19.0% | 305 | 75.3% | 4.69 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 16.7% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 2.73 |
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 14.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 4.52 |
| JAGUARS | Panthers | 10.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.81 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 9.2% | 600 | 85.7% | 1.31 |
| 49ers | COMMANDERS | 8.0% | 750 | 88.2% | 0.94 |
| Rams | GIANTS | 4.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.35 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 3.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.36 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 3.0% | 145 | 59.2% | 1.22 |
| BEARS | Falcons | 2.5% | 145 | 59.2% | 1.02 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 1.9% | 145 | 59.2% | 0.78 |
| CHIEFS | Bengals | 1.3% | 305 | 75.3% | 0.32 |
| VIKINGS | Packers | 1.0% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.45 |
| SEAHAWKS | Steelers | 0.8% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.30 |
| RAVENS | Dolphins | 0.6% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.23 |
| COWBOYS | Lions | 0.3% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As was the case the last couple
There were a bunch of close calls last week, though the favorites mostly won — except for the Broncos and Chiefs. According to our polling data, 26.3 percent of Survivors were on the Broncos, so their loss probably settled a lot of pools.
Few Survivors still had the Chiefs available. Those who saved the Chiefs for a home date against the Raiders found out why saving teams is often fool-hearty.
In any event, on to Week 17.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROWNS | Jets | 19.0% | 305 | 75.3% | 4.69 |
| EAGLES | Cardinals | 16.7% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 2.73 |
| BRONCOS | Chargers | 14.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 4.52 |
| JAGUARS | Panthers | 10.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.81 |
| BILLS | Patriots | 9.2% | 600 | 85.7% | 1.31 |
| 49ers | COMMANDERS | 8.0% | 750 | 88.2% | 0.94 |
| Rams | GIANTS | 4.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.35 |
| TEXANS | Titans | 3.7% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.36 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 3.0% | 145 | 59.2% | 1.22 |
| BEARS | Falcons | 2.5% | 145 | 59.2% | 1.02 |
| COLTS | Raiders | 1.9% | 145 | 59.2% | 0.78 |
| CHIEFS | Bengals | 1.3% | 305 | 75.3% | 0.32 |
| VIKINGS | Packers | 1.0% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.45 |
| SEAHAWKS | Steelers | 0.8% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.30 |
| RAVENS | Dolphins | 0.6% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.23 |
| COWBOYS | Lions | 0.3% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As was the case the last couple weeks, the polling data above is irrelevant. Check the teams your opponent has available and make a best guess as to who he might pick. Then go the other way. Also keep in mind that teams that clinch the playoffs/division/No. 1 seed this week might rest players next week.
If you're considering a team not listed below or face a difficult decision, leave a note in the comments and we'll work it out together.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy is expected to play after leaving Monday's game with a neck injury. But even if he sits, backup Sam Darnold can probably rally the 49ers' copious talent into a beatdown of the Commanders, who have lost six in a row and have a bit of a QB problem.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles snapped a three-game losing streak last week against the Giants, though they didn't look like world beaters doing it. But this week brings a Cardinals team that has already made vacation plans.
Denver Broncos
The Chargers almost knocked off the Bills last week, but didn't have much offense, settling for five Cameron Dicker field goals, four of which were from 40 yards or longer. The Broncos are as up and down as ever after losing to the Patriots — 1-5 to start the year, then 5-0, then 1-3. But they're still alive for a playoff spot and though they need a lot of help, the clinching scenarios are not that far-fetched. This is a must-win. Note: This was posted before the news of Russell Wilson's benching. I'd avoid the Broncos now.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are struggling and Trevor Lawrence is beat up, but they're still leading the AFC South (tied at 8-7 with the Colts and Texans). Fortunately, the visiting Panthers are on the schedule this week.
Houston Texans
The Texans are playing for the division and C.J. Stroud likely will return this week. The Titans have played teams close the last month or so, but they're eliminated from the playoffs and have little to play for.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are 10-5 and Joe Flacco is ballin'. But this week brings a Jets defense that is better than any Flacco has faced in his four games. On the other hand, the N.Y. defense nearly blew a 27-7 halftime lead to the Commanders last week. (The Jets needed a 54-yard Greg Zuerlein field goal to escape.) Cleveland's defense is good too, and it will probably be harder for the Jets to score than the Browns.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are playing pretty well these days — their lone loss in their last six came in overtime at Baltimore. The Giants, though, are good enough to hang with them for a bit, at least, and that's what makes this a bit risky. What if the Giants in hang in there and a funny bounce makes the difference at the end?
Kansas City Chiefs
Which team needs this game more? The Chiefs just aren't that good (or, not as good as expected), but a win would clinch the AFC West — and heal a lot of ills. The Bengals are still in the playoff hunt, which perhaps is enough to help them avoid back-to-back road clunkers. Alas, that still probably won't be enough to win.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
If you made it this far in Survivor without using the Bills, why would you risk everything in this type of divisional matchup? The Patriots have won two of three and, importantly, have found a bit of offense lately. There's no reason the Bills should kick this game at home, but it doesn't seem like the type of Survivor shoe-in you want.
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