This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Chiefs and to a lesser extent the Jets both maintain Super Bowl ambitions after three weeks, yet both teams have taken a hit to the projections they had going into this year. The Chiefs seem to be settling in after beginning the year without stars Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, but their offense still has questions to answer at the wide receiver position in particular. The Jets defense is not known for being charitable to struggling offenses, so it's a stern test for the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Jets are trying to salvage their season but it was most likely robbed from them when Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year. The over/under is 41.5, with the Chiefs favored on the road by 8.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($12400 DK, $18000 FD) is usually the star of whatever showdown slate he's on, and this is no exception. It's not exactly a fun matchup – the Jets can rush the passer and execute high-quality coverage – but if the game is low-scoring it makes Mahomes that much more affordable given the consequent lack of alternatives. Not just that, but Mahomes is a bit more affordable than other times because the offense on the other side is so bereft of producers. Zach Wilson ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) is about as unappealing as a showdown slate quarterback can be.
RUNNING BACKS
With no Rodgers at quarterback it seems the fortunes of the Jets offense begin and end with Breece Hall ($7800 DK, $13000
The Chiefs and to a lesser extent the Jets both maintain Super Bowl ambitions after three weeks, yet both teams have taken a hit to the projections they had going into this year. The Chiefs seem to be settling in after beginning the year without stars Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, but their offense still has questions to answer at the wide receiver position in particular. The Jets defense is not known for being charitable to struggling offenses, so it's a stern test for the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Jets are trying to salvage their season but it was most likely robbed from them when Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year. The over/under is 41.5, with the Chiefs favored on the road by 8.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($12400 DK, $18000 FD) is usually the star of whatever showdown slate he's on, and this is no exception. It's not exactly a fun matchup – the Jets can rush the passer and execute high-quality coverage – but if the game is low-scoring it makes Mahomes that much more affordable given the consequent lack of alternatives. Not just that, but Mahomes is a bit more affordable than other times because the offense on the other side is so bereft of producers. Zach Wilson ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) is about as unappealing as a showdown slate quarterback can be.
RUNNING BACKS
With no Rodgers at quarterback it seems the fortunes of the Jets offense begin and end with Breece Hall ($7800 DK, $13000 FD). The passing game can't be counted on, and Dalvin Cook ($6200 DK, $10500 FD) isn't the player he used to be. The problem is that the Chiefs know this, and the Jets running game might not see an honest look all day with the Chiefs so unafraid of Wilson as a passer. Hall played 29 snaps against Dallas in Week 3, while Cook played 16 and Michael Carter ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) played 15. Almost all of Carter's snaps occur in passing situations, and he has only three carries and four catches through three weeks.
Isiah Pacheco ($8400 DK, $12000 FD) has 27 carries over the last two weeks, and three catches on five targets. He produced 132 yards and a touchdown rushing on that workload, but he might need a long run to maintain that efficiency against a Jets defense that smothers the run. Jerick McKinnon ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) is who the Chiefs prefer as a pass catcher, and he might need to step up a bit as a checkdown target if the Jets defense manages to stall Travis Kelce and the Chiefs wide receivers. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($3000 DK, $8500 FD) had 15 carries in Week 3, but that was due to the Bears getting blown out. CEH had just seven carries over the first two weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Travis Kelce ($11000 DK, $15000 FD) can't really be schemed against, and eventually he's going to get back into full form after working back from the knee injury that kept him out Week 1. If anything, the poor returns at wideout for the Chiefs and the strong coverage from Jets corners might force the Chiefs to look to Kelce that much more. Skyy Moore ($6400 DK, $9500 FD) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) are your likely snap leaders at receiver, though they split a lot of reps with Rashee Rice ($4800 DK, $7500 FD) and Justin Watson ($2400 DK, $8000 FD) rotating in regularly. Kadarius Toney ($5600 DK, $8500 FD) hasn't played much lately, but that might change here since Toney's healthier than he has been in a couple weeks. Noah Gray ($600 DK, $6000 FD) should play upwards of 30 snaps, even with Kelce healthy.
Garrett Wilson ($9600 DK, $13500 FD) is trapped in the Zach Wilson offense and it's a tragedy. Even so, Wilson is too loud of a talent to be truly stopped by the circumstances. How often he can continue to transcend is a different question, but Wilson will likely hold some significant presence in this game. That's less likely for any of the other Jets wideouts – Wilson can't support much of a passing game, and guys like Allen Lazard ($4000 DK, $7500 FD) and Randall Cobb ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) have been unable to claim much after Wilson. Tyler Conklin ($1600 DK, $7000 FD) is the leading pass catcher at tight end between himself and C.J. Uzomah ($200 DK, $6000 FD).
KICKERS
Harrison Butker ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) is close to reestablishing himself as one of the league's best kickers. Injury disrupted his 2022, but to this point in 2023 he's 5-of-5 on field goals. The one question remaining is whether Butker has his range fully back – he has yet to attempt a kick from 50 yards or further, whereas he attempted 16 over his prior 29 games. The Chiefs are expected to control the flow of this game, yet the Jets defense figures to play tough in the red zone. Butker could do some kicking in this one.
Greg Zuerlein ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) can't be counted out, especially since he remains a viable long-range threat, but it would be more than a slight victory for the Jets offense if they can get into scoring territory more than a couple times in this game.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
As much as it's difficult to count out the Jets ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) defense, they might be more easily faded in this matchup than most others. They might spend a lot of time on the field if their offense hangs them out to dry, and Mahomes isn't the quarterback to turn a defense's fortunes for the better. With that said, the Jets defense is one of the best in the NFL.
The Chiefs ($5200 DK, $11000 FD) are the heavily favored defense, leaving them with the better fantasy projection here despite the overall superiority of the Jets defense. The Chiefs just need to stop Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, and Wilson will almost certainly remain a liability at quarterback. Though not as good as the Jets, the Chiefs defense is strong in its own right and could make this a difficult game for the Jets.
