Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The season has been unexpected rocky for both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons despite their otherwise strong combined record of 3-1 through two weeks. The Chiefs are without two of their best offensive playmakers now with Isiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown both subtracted from what should have been an improved offense, and Kirk Cousins continues to look off for the Falcons, presumably due to his ongoing recovery from last year's Achilles' tendon tear. Both teams have demonstrated their grit, with Kansas City gripping onto a hard-fought 26-25 win against Cincinnati in Week 2 and the Falcons shocking the favored Eagles with a down-to-the-wire victory 22-21 on Monday. Although the Chiefs are favored by 3.0 points, it seems like the twice-defending champs need to take the home-team Falcons seriously. The over/under is 46.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes ($10000 DK, $17000 FD) is usually a difficult fade on a single-game slate, and this matchup is no exception. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, and likely a top-three quarterback in NFL history, so with that category of player it must always be understood that a complete game takeover is possible no matter the preceding circumstances. With that said, it seems like Mahomes has less ammo on hand than what was the case in the best games of his career. Through two weeks defenses have mostly dared the Chiefs to run, selling out both safeties against the pass, but without Pacheco the Chiefs have no credible rushing threat to make defenses pay for cheating against the pass. In Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons the Falcons likely have the best safety duo in the NFL, and if they're both hovering over Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in a given play it's not obvious the Chiefs can make the Falcons back off.

Kirk Cousins ($9000 DK, $14000 FD) is probably a little more easily faded in his current state – it seems like Cousins still isn't 100 percent recovered from his Achilles' tendon tear from last year – though no one could question his poise in the meantime. Limited physically or not, Cousins boldly stared down the Eagles in a grueling road game last week and found a way to win. If Cousins should get back to 100 percent health then things should really start clicking, but it's not clear what a fair expectation might be for Cousins until that point, nor when that point might occur at all.

RUNNING BACKS

Bijan Robinson ($10600 DK, $15500 FD) probably should be in your lineup. Extremely weird things happen sometimes, but Robinson disappointing in this setting would be one such potential example. The more likely outcome is that Robinson sees extremely high usage in this game and produces at at least an average level in terms of efficiency. Also more likely than the worst-case scenario is one where Robinson posts both big usage and big efficiency. That's not to say Tyler Allgeier ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) can't be a cashing pick on the slate – the Falcons intend to get both players involved when the game flow allows it – but it also seems safe to say that Allgeier pretty much only gets to eat after Robinson does. It might be reasonable to figure that the more Allgeier plays, the more points the Falcons scored. If the Falcons fall behind, though, it might be Robinson who gets all but a few touches at running back.

Some rotation should occur between Carson Steele ($6400 DK, $8500 FD) and Samaje Perine ($5400 DK, $10500 FD) for the Chiefs with Isiah Pacheco out, but the exact workload split and the expected returns for the two running backs are difficult to pin down. Steele is something of the incumbent, seeing 14 snaps and seven carries in Week 2 compared to just five snaps and one target for Perine. That arrangement might or might not hold – Perine is a more athletic player than Steele, and Steele lost a fumble that easily could have cost the Chiefs the game against Cincinnati. Steele's ~4.85 speed leaves him profoundly dependent on broken tackles for yardage, but that's a draining style of play and will always leave Steele at risk for fumbles as defenders take second shots at him. The Chiefs also called up Keaontay Ingram, but it's unclear whether he'll have any role.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Travis Kelce ($8200 DK, $12000 FD) in theory has to get it going eventually, but the first two weeks have been highly discouraging and this matchup doesn't look obviously inviting. The Falcons arguably boast the league's best safety tandem in Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons, so if Kelce beats those two it would be an impressive if not somewhat unexpected feat. Rashee Rice ($9600 DK, $13000 FD) has been much more locked-in between himself in Kelce, though with Pacheco out the Chiefs really could use a big game from both players here. Xavier Worthy ($8000 DK, $9500 FD) could also be part of the answer for the Chiefs here, and the dome turf figures to make him look particularly fast, so Worthy might be able to improve on his Week 2 numbers of just two catches for 17 yards on four targets. Justin Watson ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) is your likely WR3 for Kansas City, though it's unclear why Andy Reid insists on this. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore are otherwise candidates to see about 10 snaps. Noah Gray ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) is mostly a blocker, but he'll likely play around 30 or more snaps each week for Kansas City.

Drake London ($8800 DK, $11500 FD) got going in the second half of Atlanta's game against Philadelphia, including the game-winning touchdown against cornerback Darius Slay. Still, it's a bit disappointing when six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown feels like a breakout game. London is an exceptional talent and will almost always do the most that's possible in a given situation, but if Cousins still isn't healthy then things might be more grueling than they'd otherwise need be. London is also a good bet to see shadow coverage from Trent McDuffie, though London may well prove himself soon to be a better wideout than McDuffie is a corner. Darnell Mooney ($6200 DK, $9500 FD) is a much better player than Ray-Ray McCloud ($3600 DK, $7500 FD), but Cousins' ongoing issues have left the Falcons more dependent on the latter through two weeks. McCloud's targets represent a forfeit on the part of the Falcons passing game – the worse the Falcons lose, the more work McCloud will see. Kyle Pitts ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) probably just needs to get on a different team already.

KICKERS

Harrison Butker ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) and Younghoe Koo ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) are both two of the best kickers in the league, and both are capable of eclipsing double-digit fantasy points with consistency. Particularly in cases where the offenses accumulate yardage but fail to convert that yardage into touchdowns, these kickers can fill the scoring void with multiple kicks from long range. Both kickers project well here, and arguably Butker especially.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Depending on whether either offense figures their way out of their current struggles, there might be room for the defenses to play a role in cashing lineups.

The Chiefs ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) would seem to have a bit more going for them if only because the Falcons don't have obvious ways of creating turnovers given their lack of pass-rushing personnel, and it helps that Cousins might not be fully healthy. Cousins threw two interceptions to just one touchdown at home against Pittsburgh in Week 1, so the Chiefs will hope to make something similar happen here. If Cousins is making weekly progress, on the other hand, then maybe he'll look better than he did against the Steelers.

The Falcons ($3400 DK, $8000 FD) are underdogs facing one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and as previously mentioned the lack of pass-rushing personnel makes it difficult to theorize how the Falcons are supposed to create turnovers against any given offense. Mahomes is not easy to get a hold of and he tends to make many more big plays than he gives up, so the Falcons don't obviously project well here, barring uncharacteristic struggles from the Chiefs offense.