Streaming Defenses: Week 18 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses

This is both the hardest and easiest week of the year to write Streaming Defenses. On the one hand, I don't have to bother with any of the stuff regarding planning ahead for future weeks. On the other hand, I have to consider the potential impacts of numerous teams resting starters.

Writing this article at the beginning of the week, no coach has made a declaration of intent to rest starters in the season finale. A few might before the weekend, but it hasn't happened yet, which means we need to rely on common sense (and betting lines). 

The odds are our best friend here, but there's nonetheless some guess work involved, especially this early in the week. It's also pretty standard that one or two teams that aren't in the playoff hunt will throw us curveballs and either rest a few key players or reduce their workloads in order to look at young guys. That part is a lot more difficult to plan for, of course.

We do know that the Ravens, Chiefs, Browns and 49ers are locked into specific playoff seeds. You could also argue the Lions and Rams don't have a ton to play for Week 18. Every other playoff team or potential playoff team should be highly motivated. 

But then we have teams like Washington, New England and Arizona, all of whom may be demotivated by the implications for draft position. Players generally don't care about that, nor do coaches who are about to be fired (e.g. Ron Rivera), but the guys in the front office might. 

I also wonder about someone like Terry McLaurin, who can finally see a franchise-QB light at the end of the tunnel after years of catching passes from bums. Younger guys just want to get their wins and stats, but it's possible someone like McLaurin wouldn't be quite as motivated as usual.

Anyway, this is a D/ST streaming article, not a speculating on Terry McLaurin's future/motivation article. Let's get to it.

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 18

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at CAR)

• 37% Yahoo, 27% ESPN
• Team implied total: 21.5     Opponent implied total: 16.0 

Lest you think they made progress in putting a 30-spot on Green Bay in Week 16, the Panthers somehow managed to get shut out by the Jags in Week 17, with Bryce Young once again looking overmatched beyond all reason for a No. 1 overall pick. The Bucs beat that same Jacksonville team by 18 points a couple weeks ago, and now they've got everything on the line Week 18 after a letdown against the rival Saints last week. Even if the Bucs show up flat again, the Panthers will probably bail them out.

2. New England Patriots (vs. NYJ)

• 21% Yahoo, 29% ESPN
• Team implied total: 16.5     Opponent implied total: 14.0

This AFC East battle features two of the worst offenses not only in the NFL this season but over the past five years. The Jets have given up the most fantasy points to team defenses, with the Patriots not far behind at No. 4. Both teams also have a lot to lose/gain in terms of draft position, though nothing we've seen from either in recent weeks hints at tanking to move up in the order. Accidental "tanking" is another matter, with Trevor Siemian and Bailey Zappe set to do battle. The over/under opened at 30.5 on Monday and conceivably could slip below 30 if the forecast for possible snow solidifies later in the week.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (at TEN)

• 59% Yahoo, 39% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.5     Opponent implied total: 17.0

The Jaguars defense has been all over the place this year, but it's among the healthiest in the league right now and coming off a shutout win (albeit over Carolina). After dominating Bryce Young, the Jags just need to beat up on Will Levis (ankle) or Ryan Tannehill to clinch the AFC South. I'm guessing it'll be Tannehill, but that's not such a bad thing in light of his sack rate spiking to 12.8 percent this year, worst in the league among 33 qualified passers.

4. New Orleans Saints (vs. ATL)

• 49% Yahoo, 58% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.5     Opponent implied total: 19.0

I'd warn against putting too much stock in last week's results, with the Saints coming off one of their best performances of the season and the Falcons coming off one of their worst. Both teams still have a shot at the postseason, and neither has been at all consistent. What I do put stock in is the consistently bad QB play from Atlanta, be it Taylor Heinicke (ankle) or Desmond Ridder under center. I think Ridder is worse, but Heinicke was abysmal Week 17 at Chicago and may have limited mobility if he ends up playing this week. Either way, the Saints defense should feast.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)

• 39% Yahoo, 15% ESPN
• Team implied total: 21.75     Opponent implied total: 16.75

This one comes with a big asterisk, because coach Kevin Stefanski may decide he wants QB Joe Flacco to get more experience in his offense even if some other starters are rested. The Bengals defense has been thoroughly unimpressive, so I'd really only be eager to use it for fantasy if PJ Walker or Jeff Driskel is under center for the Browns. The team likely will be hamstrung at wide receiver no matter the decision on resting starters, as Amari Cooper missed Week 17 with a heel injury and Elijah Moore then suffered a concussion in the TNF win over New York. Move the Bengals up a few spots later this week if we get confirmation that Stefanski wants to rest Flacco and other key players.

Week 18 Rankings

1. Cowboys (at WAS)
2. Buccaneers (at CAR)
3. Patriots (vs. NYJ)
4. Jets (at NE)
5. Jaguars (at TEN)
6. Saints (vs. ATL)
7. Bengals (vs. CLE)
8. Raiders (vs. DEN)
9. Lions (vs. MIN)
10. Steelers (at BAL)
11. Chargers (vs. KC)
12. Chiefs (at LAC)
13. Broncos (at LV)
14. Ravens (vs. PIT)
15. 49ers (vs. LAR)
16. Eagles (at NYG)
17. Browns (at CIN)
18. Packers (vs. CHI)
19. Falcons (at NO)
20. Bears (at GB)