This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.
Welcome to Streaming Defenses, an article RotoWire has been running for at least nine years and one I've now been writing for six. Our focus mostly will stay on the current week, but we do include a few things for those who want to plan ahead, including projected ranks in the following two weeks for each of the five streaming recommendations.
If you scroll past those five picks and the write-ups, you'll then see rankings for Week 1, Week 2 and the rest of the season. I caution not to put too much faith in the latter, as it's tougher to identify the best defenses pre-season than the best offenses. That's part of why I've always preferred streaming week-to-week over sticking with one D/ST all year; the other reason is that QB injuries and benchings throughout the season create some unexpected great matchups for not-so-great defenses.
This will often be reflected in betting odds, which in turn are a key component for the RotoWire weekly projections that are the foundation of this article. You'll notice below that we show implied totals for each streaming recommendation, and you'll sometimes see them listed in order from lowest opponent total to highest. It's not quite as simple as picking the team with the lowest implied opponent total, but I'd at least say that's a decent substitute strategy if you don't have time to check out this article in the future (you really should though!).
For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me
Welcome to Streaming Defenses, an article RotoWire has been running for at least nine years and one I've now been writing for six. Our focus mostly will stay on the current week, but we do include a few things for those who want to plan ahead, including projected ranks in the following two weeks for each of the five streaming recommendations.
If you scroll past those five picks and the write-ups, you'll then see rankings for Week 1, Week 2 and the rest of the season. I caution not to put too much faith in the latter, as it's tougher to identify the best defenses pre-season than the best offenses. That's part of why I've always preferred streaming week-to-week over sticking with one D/ST all year; the other reason is that QB injuries and benchings throughout the season create some unexpected great matchups for not-so-great defenses.
This will often be reflected in betting odds, which in turn are a key component for the RotoWire weekly projections that are the foundation of this article. You'll notice below that we show implied totals for each streaming recommendation, and you'll sometimes see them listed in order from lowest opponent total to highest. It's not quite as simple as picking the team with the lowest implied opponent total, but I'd at least say that's a decent substitute strategy if you don't have time to check out this article in the future (you really should though!).
For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@JerryDonabedian).
Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.
Top Streaming Options for Week 1
1. Tennessee Titans (vs. NYG)
37% Yahoo, 15% ESPN
Team implied total: 24.5
Opponent implied total: 19.0
Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 28th (at BUF), Week 3: 23rd (vs. LV)
While the Titans' top-heavy defense is in serious danger of taking a step back this year, Kevin Byard and Co. have the talent advantage in a Week 1 date with Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll. The Giants figure to start three or four rookies on offense in the contest, and among those only RT Evan Neal is a blue-chip prospect. The Giants probably have the worst tight ends in the league, and their shaky interior line is particularly problematic against a defense with Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. PIT)
36% Yahoo, 32% ESPN
Team implied total: 25.5
Opponent implied total: 19.0
Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 20th (at DAL), Week 3: 6th (at NYJ)
I'm surprised the Bengals are available in so many leagues. They reached the Super Bowl in February — thanks in large part to a hot defense — and now start this season with a home game against Mitchell Trubisky, who is stuck behind an offensive line that was arguably the worst in the league last year. Offseason signings James Daniels (guard) and Mason Cole (center) may be upgrades, but that's only because they're replacing were brutal — neither is a star in his own right, and Cole consistently was one of PFF's lowest-graded centers before last season. The Steelers also still have some of the worst OTs in the league, while Cincinnati brings Trey Hendrickson (14 sacks last season) and Sam Hubbard (7.5 sacks) off the edge
3. Carolina Panthers (vs. CLE)
3% Yahoo, 4% ESPN
Team implied total: 22.0
Opponent implied total: 19.5
Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 15th (at NYG), Week 3: 16th (vs. NO)
Expectations for Carolina are rightfully low, and the Browns have a solid offensive line to deal with a pass rush that's probably the strength of an otherwise uninspired team. The problem for Cleveland is Jacoby Brissett, he of the career 6.4 YPA and 8.1 percent sack rate (which would've been sixth worst among qualified passers last year). A lack of interceptions has been the only clear positive with Brissett, and it's largely cancelled out by his tendency to hold onto the ball for too long even though he rarely turns broken plays into big ones.
4. Washington Commanders (vs. JAX)
8% Yahoo, 43% ESPN
Team implied total: 23.0
Opponent implied total: 20.5
Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 13th (at DET), Week 3: 20th (vs. PHI)
The Commanders probably won't have command of much this year, apart from third place in the NFC East, but they do get a Week 1 home game against a 22-year-old QB who threw five more INTs than TDs last year. The counter-argument is that Trevor Lawrence was an A+ predraft prospect and could thrive under a competent coaching staff. It wouldn't surprise me, but I think it'll take more time if it happens, and Lawrence isn't surrounded by the type of talent that would allow for the Joe Burrow level of breakout. He can make significant progress and still be a top-10 or top-15 fantasy matchup for opponents.
5. Cleveland Browns (at CAR)
20% Yahoo, 39% ESPN
Team implied total: 19.5
Opponent implied total: 22.0
Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 5th (vs. NYJ), Week 3: 11th (vs. PIT)
The Browns, Panthers, Jaguars and Commanders all fall in the same bucket this week — favorable matchups for talented-but-untrustworthy defenses. We'd probably flip the Browns and Panthers if this game were in Cleveland rather than Carolina, so it's really a "trust your gut" situation when picking between these types of options in the 8-13 range of the Week 1 rankings (see below). If you're looking for a multi-week streamer, that's probably enough to push Cleveland above the others given that Week 2 brings a home game against the Jets. It won't be until Week 5 against the Chargers that the Browns face even a league-average starting QB.
Week 1 Rankings
- 49ers (at CHI)
- Saints (at ATL)
- Ravens (at NYJ)
- Titans (vs. NYG)
- Broncos (at SEA)
- Colts (at HOU)
- Bengals (vs. PIT)
- Panthers (vs. CLE)
- Commanders (vs. JAC)
- Browns (at CAR)
- Dolphins (vs. NE)
- Jaguars (at WAS)
- Eagles (at DET)
- Packers (at MIN)
- Chiefs (at ARZ)
- Patriots (at MIA)
- Rams (vs. BUF)
- Chargers (vs. LV)
- Buccaneers (at DAL)
- Bills (at LAR)
Looking Ahead to Week 2
- 49ers (vs. SEA)
- Packers (vs. CHI)
- Rams (vs. ATL)
- Broncos (vs. HOU)
- Colts (at JAX)
- Browns (vs. NYJ)
- Bills (vs. TEN)
- Ravens (vs. MIA)
- Steelers (vs. NE)
- Patriots (at PIT)
- Giants (vs. CAR)
- Panthers (at NYG)
- Buccaneers (at NO)
- Raiders (vs. ARZ)
- Commanders (at DET)
- Jets (at CLE)
- Lions (vs. WAS)
- Cowboys (vs. CIN)
- Eagles (vs. MIN)
- Bengals (at DAL)
Rest-of-Season Rankings
- Buffalo Bills
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- San Francisco 49ers
- New Orleans Saints
- Baltimore Ravens
- Dallas Cowboys
- Los Angeles Rams
- Green Bay Packers
- Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- New England Patriots
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Denver Broncos
- Tennessee Titans
- Carolina Panthers
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Arizona Cardinals