Red Zone Watch: Week 7

Green Bay Packers
Wide receiver Jordy Nelson is second in the NFL in red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line this season, but that didn't help him last Thursday against the Bears, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw 12 red-zone passes, but only one went to Nelson and he failed to catch it. Instead, Rodgers threw five passes in the area to Ty Montgomery, three to Randall Cobb and two to Davante Adams. Additionally, Nelson had been very successful scoring touchdowns from in close, but this week it was Cobb and Adams who were the beneficiaries of targets near the goal line, as they scored one and two touchdowns, respectively.

The absence of a true running back certainly opened up the idea that the Packers would throw much more from in close, and that thought came to fruition, as they rushed only twice inside the 10-yard line, with Cobb and Montgomery each failing to gain any yards on their singular touches. Aaron Ripkowski, Knile Davis and Rodgers also had red-zone carries, though they came from between the 10 and 20-yard lines, which aren't really scoring distances. Either way, with the backfield filled with injuries, there's every reason to believe that the Packers will increase their pass/run split in close even though they already throw on nearly 64 percent of their plays inside the 10.

Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback Andrew Luck threw six red-zone passes Sunday against the Titans, with five going to tight end Jack Doyle and one to running back Frank Gore. Doyle caught four of his targets for 17 yards, including a seven-yard touchdown, while Gore's reception also went for six points (his was a three-yard gain). Gore's inclusion certainly helped ease fantasy owners' concerns, as his usefulness in the red zone this season has been fairly minimal, with the Colts throwing the ball more than 64 percent of the time in the red zone, with almost the same percentage inside the 10-yard line. Gore has gotten 50 percent of the Colts' total carries in the red zone, with the percentage rising inside the 10 and five-yard lines, but it's clear that the Colts, like the Saints, will rely on their quarterback's arm when they get in close. Unfortunately for fantasy owners of the Colts' wideouts, they don't seem to be enjoying the fruits of Luck's labor.

Miami Dolphins
A few weeks ago it looked like the Dolphins would never get into the red zone again, so it didn't really matter who was getting the touches inside the 20-yard line. Well, Jay Ajayi would like us to reconsider. After rushing for over 200 yards in back-to-back games, Ajayi has taken a stronghold on the Dolphins' offense, and he's clearly the top dog in the red zone. The Dolphins had nine red-zone snaps during Sunday's win over the Bills, running the ball seven times, and while Ajayi only got two of those touches, they both came inside the 10-yard line, including a four-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Backup Damien Williams also scored a red-zone touchdown, but his came from 12-yards out, which represented 75 percent of his yardage on the day. Needless to say, the Dolphins' offense is the Ajayi show now.

New York Jets
The Jets have run the ball on 45.61 percent of their plays in the red zone this season, which increases to 48.15 percent inside the 10-yard line. However, those stats are actually skewed a little bit thanks to Sunday's game against the Ravens when they ran the ball seven times in the red zone but only threw thrice, including six rushing plays and two passes inside the 10. The absence of Eric Decker has left a big void to fill in the red zone, as Decker was one of the most effective options from in close over the past few seasons. However, with Geno Smith and then Ryan Fitzpatrick under center Sunday, the Jets turned to Matt Forte, who not only got every single carry in the red zone, but he also had one of the three targets. With defenses able to focus on Brandon Marshall because of Decker's absence, the Jets appropriately turned to their lead runner, who has clearly taken over the backfield, leaving almost nothing for Bilal Powell.

Oakland Raiders
The return of Latavius Murray from his turf toe injury was a big help to the Raiders on Sunday against the Jaguars, as he was able to bang in two touchdowns. The Raiders threw on eight of their 15 red-zone plays, including five of their eight inside the 10, but Carr completed only one of his five attempts from that distance. Luckily, it went for a two-yard touchdown to Michael Crabtree. However, Murray was excellent with his touches from in close, scoring on both of his carries inside the 10-yard line. Jamize Olawale did get one carry, which he turned into three yards, but Murray's fantasy owners were able to keep their cool since he didn't poach a score. Overall, the Raiders are passing on 66 percent of their red-zone plays, including 63 percent inside the 10, but given Murray's ability from in close, they may want to even out the distribution.

San Francisco 49ers
The Niners' offense is a mess without starting running back Carlos Hyde, which forced desperate fantasy owners to try and decide whether it was worth trying to get value out of Mike Davis, Shaun Draughn or DuJuan Harris on Sunday against the Buccaneers. Harris led the team in carries and Draughn led them in receiving yards, while quarterback Colin Kaepernick led them in rushing yards. And, to only cloud the situation further, Davis was the one who scored a four-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Draughn followed that up with a 17-yard touchdown reception to put them up 14-0. Unfortunately, the Bucs closed by outscoring the Niners 34-3 in the final three quarters. Both San Francisco touchdowns came in the red zone, but there's little reason to think any of the three backs should have their fantasy value increased because of work in that area, as only 32.76 percent of their red-zone plays this season have come from inside the 10-yard line, the second-fewest in the league.