This article is part of our Red Zone Watch series.
It's tough to extrapolate too much from only one week of regular season football, but that doesn't mean we should ignore how some teams performed in various parts of the field. After explaining why the generic use of red zone stats isn't enough in our annual fantasy football magazine, it's time to follow up with a weekly column about how certain teams are performing close to the goal line and which players appear to be benefitting (or not) from the situations. It's not worth going through every team (we know that Adrian Peterson is highly likely to get the goal-line carries for the Vikings), but there are a few worth examining.
Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman put up a dud performance Sunday against the Buccaneers, but Tevin Coleman's solid play didn't take too much away from last year's top-scoring fantasy running back. Freeman got four of the Falcons' five red-zone carries, while getting both of their touches inside the 10-yard line. Additionally, he grabbed both of his red zone targets, including one inside the 10, while Coleman only had one pass thrown his way inside the 20. Noticeably absent from the red-zone target list was Julio Jones, despite catching five of eight passes for 80 yards and a touchdown for the game, as Mohamed Sanu was the wideout Matt Ryan looked to from in close (twice, one for a TD).
Carolina Panthers
Only seven players had more carries inside the five-yard line than Jonathan Stewart last season, though
It's tough to extrapolate too much from only one week of regular season football, but that doesn't mean we should ignore how some teams performed in various parts of the field. After explaining why the generic use of red zone stats isn't enough in our annual fantasy football magazine, it's time to follow up with a weekly column about how certain teams are performing close to the goal line and which players appear to be benefitting (or not) from the situations. It's not worth going through every team (we know that Adrian Peterson is highly likely to get the goal-line carries for the Vikings), but there are a few worth examining.
Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman put up a dud performance Sunday against the Buccaneers, but Tevin Coleman's solid play didn't take too much away from last year's top-scoring fantasy running back. Freeman got four of the Falcons' five red-zone carries, while getting both of their touches inside the 10-yard line. Additionally, he grabbed both of his red zone targets, including one inside the 10, while Coleman only had one pass thrown his way inside the 20. Noticeably absent from the red-zone target list was Julio Jones, despite catching five of eight passes for 80 yards and a touchdown for the game, as Mohamed Sanu was the wideout Matt Ryan looked to from in close (twice, one for a TD).
Carolina Panthers
Only seven players had more carries inside the five-yard line than Jonathan Stewart last season, though one was teammate Cam Newton. Stewart's fantasy upside from this part of the field will always be tempered because of Newton, and that came to fruition in Thursday's opener, as Newton got the lone carry inside the 10-yard line, while Stewart's two red-zone touches came from farther out (and he only managed three yards). The matchup against the stout Broncos defense certainly limited the Panthers' run game, but fantasy owners who were worried about Stewart have been vindicated early on.
Cincinnati Bengals
Jeremy Hill dominated the Bengals' carries from in close last year, leaving Giovani Bernard with the distinction of failing to score on any of his touches inside the 10-yard line, while Hill scored 10 times on 24 carries inside the 10, including eight TDs on 13 carries inside the five. That didn't necessarily change Sunday, as Hill was the only back to get a red-zone carry (two), while Bernard had one red-zone target, which came outside the 10. However, the Jets' defensive line stifled the Bengals' running game, not to mention sacking quarterback Andy Dalton seven times, so there simply wasn't enough volume to make any definitive changes to the opinion that Hill will get most of the goal-line work this year.
Detroit Lions
The Lions put on an offensive showcase against the Colts (something plenty of teams will do this year), using a fairly balanced pass/run attack in the red zone. What was particularly interesting in the post-Calvin Johnson era is that quarterback Matthew Stafford didn't use his wideouts much, with four of his six red-zone passes going to either running backs (Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah) or his tight end (Eric Ebron). Marvin Jones and Golden Tate finished with one red-zone target each, with Jones' coming inside the 10 (he failed to catch it). However, the running back battle didn't stop there, as Dwayne Washington, who was active ahead of Zach Zenner, led the team in red-zone carries, with both coming inside the five-yard line and one resulting in a one-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Those two carries were Washington's only two of the game, and while Abdullah (12 carries for 63 yards) and Riddick (seven carries for 45 yards) will continue to get a bulk of the work, it looks like there's a clear poaching opportunity in Detroit.
Green Bay Packers
Jordy Nelson's potential effectiveness after returning from a torn ACL was a hot topic this summer, and while he was able to score a touchdown in his first game back, while also leading the team in targets (nine), his final stat line (six catches for 32 yards) came up short of his previous levels. That said, there is definite promise, as Nelson's three red-zone targets led the team (and was the same as Randall Cobb and Davante Adams combined), while he caught both of his targets inside the 10-yard line, leading to one touchdown. The Packers actually ran the ball more in the red zone than they passed it, with Eddie Lacy getting most of those opportunities. Those looking at the box scores will see that Aaron Rodgers "poached" a close touchdown, but it's worth noting that it was a pass play with no one open, so it's not like they actively chose to take a rushing opportunity away from Lacy.
Indianapolis Colts
There isn't much question as to who will get most of the carries in Indianapolis, as Frank Gore somehow has a firm handle on the job, but he was a total afterthought in the red zone Sunday against the Lions. The Colts ran 10 plays inside the 20-yard line and passed on nine, with Josh Ferguson getting the lone red-zone carry (he lost two yards). In fairness, they were playing from behind for much of the game, but Gore still rushed 14 times for 59 yards, and not a single one came within sniffing distance of the end zone. Each one of Andrew Luck's four passing touchdowns came in the red zone, and he spread his passes out, with Phillip Dorsett, Jack Doyle, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief all getting targeted twice, while Dwayne Allen got one. Dorsett and Hilton were the Colts' two leading receivers, yardage-wise, Sunday, but Doyle (two), Moncrief and Allen were the ones who got in the end zone. There's little reason to believe Luck will start focusing on one or two of his options in the red zone, though it's pretty clear it won't be someone out of the backfield.
New York Giants
The Giants have arguably one of the top wide receiver trios in the NFL now that Victor Cruz is healthy again, and while Cruz, Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard are excellent ball-catchers, as evidenced by Shepard's grab in the end zone Sunday against the Cowboys, none is taller than 6-foot, making it a bit puzzling that they passed so much near the goal line. The Giants ran nine red-zone plays Sunday, passing seven times, with Shane Vereen, known more for his pass-catching ability than running, getting both carries. That's right, starter Rashad Jennings, who rushed 18 times for 75 yards, didn't get a single red-zone look (his two targets were outside the 20 too), let alone a carry near the goal line. Instead, quarterback Eli Manning threw all four times they were inside the 10, with Beckham getting targeted twice (no catches), while Cruz and Shepard scored on theirs (Larry Donnell scored on a 15-yard pass to round out Manning's TDs). If you want to know what Giants fans think of this play calling, Chris Liss has you covered.
New York Jets
No player had more carries inside the five-yard line last year than Chris Ivory, who got 85 percent of the Jets' carries from that distance, also the highest in the league. However, Matt Forte, acquired in the summer to replace Ivory after he left for the Jaguars, didn't enjoy the same treatment in his first game for the team, as he rushed five times inside the red zone but only one of those carries came from inside the five (it was also his only carry inside the 10). His single carry was matched by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who decided to use his arm near the end zone, throwing six times inside the 10, including a short touchdown pass to wideout Quincy Enunwa. With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker also getting passes thrown to them from in close, Forte already looks like he'll come up short of the goal-line work that Ivory enjoyed last season.
San Diego Chargers
Melvin Gordon's inability to score a touchdown last season got plenty of ink in the fantasy community, with most people going out on a limb and expecting him to score more this year. Well, you nailed it, everyone! Gordon scored two touchdowns during Sunday's opener against the Chiefs, getting both of the Chargers' carries from inside the 10, including their only one from inside the five, which he scored on. Danny Woodhead led the team in carries and rushing yards, but it's clear Gordon will get the first crack at the goal line, especially if Woodhead is overused in the passing game to make up for the loss of Keenan Allen, who is believed to have suffered a torn ACL on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers scored four touchdowns Sunday, but only one came from inside the red zone, a four-yard reception by tight end Brandon Myers. The Bucs are an interesting team, as they have huge receivers but they aren't utilized much near the goal line. Mike Evans (6-5) and Vincent Jackson (also 6-5) combined for 16 targets inside the 10 last year, a total 31 players bested on their own. Complicating it further, quarterback Jameis Winston doesn't hesitate to run near the goal line, while Doug Martin has proven to be a capable finisher from in close too. This is definitely a situation worth monitoring, mostly because we didn't get enough from Sunday's performance to give us a clearer indication of how the Bucs will play from in close.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans' backfield had plenty of questions heading into the season, mainly about how they would split the work between DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry. After one week, it looks pretty clear that the main job is Murray's, as he and the Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald were the only players to score multiple touchdowns inside the five-yard line. Perhaps the more interesting part for Murray is that both of his were touchdown receptions, as he co-led the league (Travaris Cadet) in targets inside the five-yard line with three. It's still early, of course, but it's worth noting the despite a running quarterback and two solid backs, the Titans only rushed once inside the 10-yard line, none of which were inside the five.
And for a deeper look on how teams are splitting their touches in the red zone, I'll include this table each week showing each team's splits: