This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 17 Expert Picks and Betting Trends
There are two weeks left in the NFL regular season and there are 12 of the 16 AFC teams still alive for a playoff berth and all with 7-8 or better records. In the NFC there are also 12 teams that still have playoff hopes and all with 7-8 or better records. There will be seven teams of the 12 remaining in each conference that will make it to the playoffs. So, the parity in the NFL has never been more dominant and keeps the fan bases engaged with their team's chances for the playoffs even if they are only faint mathematical situations.
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How Do Teams Do in Their Home Finale
There are many situational angles to be aware of when handicapping teams playing in their home finale. The spreadsheet below shows the home records for each team over the past 10 seasons. The Patriots, Bengals, and Colts have gone 8-2 straight-up (SU) and a combined 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets. On the fade side, the Titans and Commanders are just 2-8 SU in their home finale. Against the spread, the Browns have covered just one home finale over the past 10 seasons.
With the Season on the Line, How Do 7-8 Home Teams Do in Game Number 16?
Since 2004, home favorites that have a 7-8 SU record entering game number 16 (Week 17) of the regular season have gone 21-3 SU (88%) and 17-7 ATS (71%). This simple situational angle is active in Week 17 action to bet on the Broncos when they host the Chargers as 3.5-point favorites and the Vikings when they host the Packers as 2-point favorites.
With the Season on the Line How Do 7-8 Road Teams Do in Game Number 16?
Since 2004, road teams that have posted a 7-8 SU record through 15 games have produced a 5-15 SU (25%) and 7-12-1 ATS (37%) record. So, in Week 17 action, fade the Falcons as 3-point underdogs when they take on the Bears, fade the Raiders as 3.5-point underdogs when they face the Colts, fade the Saints as 2.5-point underdogs when they face the Bucs, and fade the Packers as 2-point underdogs when they face the Vikings.
Do the Eagles Clinch the NFC East Division Crown on Saturday?
The Eagles are playing the home finale against the Arizona Cardinals and are installed as 10.5-point favorites with a 48-point total. However, the Lions have a road trip to Arlington, Texas, to take on the Cowboys, who are favored by 5.5 points including a lofty 53-point total. Dallas trails the Eagles by one game in the NFC standings and if they lose Saturday, they would need a monumental upset by the Cardinals to keep their divisional crown hopes alive. So, no the Eagles cannot win the NFC East division crown Saturday, but can win it with a Cowboys loss and a win over the Cardinals.
The Lions do have a solid opportunity to pull off the upset win over the Cowboys and I like them as a betting opportunity in Week 17 action. Detroit possesses an outside shot at securing the No. 1 seed, but would need to win out over the Cowboys and then end the season with a win over the Vikings at Ford Field, and for the 49ers and the Eagles to lose one of their remaining two games. There is a lot on the line for both of these teams especially the Cowboys, who have not played well in road games this season. If Dallas does win the divisional crown, they will likely host no more than one home playoff game and then have to play two more road games to win the NFC Conference Championship and a berth in the Super Bowl.
The Cowboys rank best in the NFL with a season-to-date yards per ratio of 13.95 which means that they have an efficient offense putting up one point for every 13.95 yards gained. The Cowboys have the second-best yards-per-point differential in the NFL meaning they have a defense that has forced their opponents to gain far more yards than the league average to put up a single point on the scoreboard. However, the Cowboy's schedule has featured a weaker-than-average schedule featuring the NFC rival Giants and Commanders. The Lions rank fourth in the NFL scoring 27.4 points per game and will test the Cowboy's defense in this matchup.
Are There Highly Profitable Situational Betting Algorithms for This Game?
Several high-powered and highly profitable betting systems support a betting opportunity on the Lions. This one has produced an 18-21 SU (46%) and 30-8-1 ATS (79%) record over the past 10 seasons and the requirements are as follows:
· Bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
· The dog committed no more than one turnover in their previous game.
· The favorite is coming two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers.
If a non-divisional matchup these underdogs have gone 13-11 DSU ( 54%) and 19-5 ATS (79%) including a 15-8-1 Under record (65%) since 2014.
My Best Bet for NFL Week 17 and Live Bet Strategy
My best bet is on the Detroit Lions plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4.5 points as offered at Bet ESPN. Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 25% of your betting amount on the Lions.
