This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Higher
Jaylen Waddle – higher than 55.5 receiving yards
The Miami offense appears to be rounding into form, and they'll draw a good matchup to keep their passing offense on track against the Texans in Week 15. Houston has allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season, and has now lost Jalen Pitre (pectoral) – who made significant strides in coverage -- for the season.
Waddle himself has had a disappointing campaign, though he's gotten more involved in recent weeks. In short, I expect we saw a Miami offense operating at a much closer level to expectations entering the year.
Rico Dowdle – higher than 83.5 rushing yards
We'll have two correlated selections in the Cowboys' offense, both of whom are related to Dallas running its offense through the ground game in a Week 15 matchup against Carolina. Even with Cooper Rush under center, Dallas has continued to run roughly a neutral offense relative to expectation, but the Panthers' defense should dictate differently, as their opponents have combined to post the lowest pass rate over expectation mark in the league (-6.9 percent). That should volume on Dowdle's side, as Ezekiel Elliott has been all but eliminated from the offense.
Efficiency also doesn't project to be much of a problem. The Panthers have allowed opposing running backs to average 4.99 yards per carry this season (third-highest in the league). While Carolina has shown fight in recent weeks, the run defense remains abysmal, as the unit has allowed big performances to the likes of Bucky Irving, Tyrone Tracy and Saquon Barkley.
A.J. Brown – higher than 5.5 receiving yards
The Eagles and Steelers set up to a run-heavy matchup, as the teams have the lowest and second-lowest pass rate over expectations in the league (-7.4 and -7.3). Even with the depressed passing numbers, there's no doubt that Brown is the top pass catcher in Philadelphia. He has a 31.7 percent targets share for the season, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has stated it will be a priority to get the ball in Brown's hands this week after the receiver displayed some discontent after Philadelphia's Week 14 win. More anecdotally, a physical matchup against Joey Porter feels like a good spot for Brown to excel in.
Tyrone Tracy – higher than 12.5 rushing attempts
I'm not rushing to place my trust in the Giants' offense, but it's clear that Tracy is the lead back when he can hang onto the ball. Since Week 5, he has topped this prop in six of nine contests, and his decreased workload has come in games during which he's lost a fumble, or immediately following a matchup in which he's lost a fumble. The Giants have had their eyes set on 2025 for several weeks, and Tracy should have the chance to earn a role in that offense with a strong performance down the stretch.
Elijah Moore – higher than 7.5 targets
The Browns receiving corps is beat up, as Cedric Tillman (concussion) remains sidelined and David Njoku (hamstring) looks to be on the wrong side of questionable heading into Sunday's matchup against the Chiefs. Even if Njoku surprisingly plays, this is a good spot for Moore. The Browns haven't been afraid to air out the ball with Jameis Winston under center, while Kansas City's defensive strength is in stopping the run game.
At the time of drafting, there is no yardage prop available for Moore, though any listed total under 50 (it was previously 46.5) would also be a good "higher" selection.
Lower
Gus Edwards – lower than 11.5 rushing attempts
Kimani Vidal saw an expanded role in the Los Angeles offense against the Chiefs and was on the field more than Edwards. Even if Edwards remains the lead back, it's apparent that he won't be relied upon as a workhorse as he's reached 12 carries only once this season. A matchup against Tampa Bay could also be a sneaky shootout spot, so it also wouldn't be a surprise to see the Chargers forced into a more pass-heavy script than typical. Regardless of the path to getting there, all the signs point to "lower" here.
Cooper Rush – lower than 32.5 pass attempts
There will be worse starting quarterbacks out there than Rush this weekend, but Dallas should be able to win and dictate its offense on the ground against Carolina. We ran through all the stats when discussing Dowdle's prop above, but the number that stands out the most is that opposing teams have the lowest pass rate over expectation (-6.9) against the Panthers this season.
Jake Haener – lower than 196.5 rushing +passing yards
This one is a bit uncomfortable, primarily because the number is so low. However, the Saints have no explosive pass-catching options at their disposal with the trio of Alvin Kamara, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juwan Johnson leading the way. If there is a strength to the offense, it would be the ground game running through Kamara and the suddenly involved Kendre Miller. Lastly, the Commanders aren't good against the run. Their defense has allowed the second-highest yards per carry mark to opposing running backs this season (5.01 YPC) and opposing offenses have attempted the fewest passes against them on the campaign.
