This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The NFL season just about hits the halfway point at the end of Week 9. For Circa Millions players, it marks the end of Quarter 2 and the second round of prizes. The top five this week are as follows.
Bengals -1.5 vs. 
Bills, 2163 picks, 1447 net -- We jumped on this one as well, with the very scientific theory that the Bengals are better…..also Joe Burrow sure looks back. Circa Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson pointed out in a VSiN interview that at quarter end contenders might pick the Sunday or Monday night game and then hedge potential winnings by betting against their pick. Hey, I use that exact strategy in a different pool, they are copying me!
Browns -7.5 vs. 
Cardinals, 1948 picks, 1604 net -- Name that (Clayton) Tune. He will start at QB for the Cards, while Deshaun Watson returns to the Browns helm. Probably. Believe it when you see it. This game has large line value as Cleveland was up to at least -10 when the picks were due, and is -11 on Saturday night. Unlike the Bengals last week, this one did pop through a key number.
Jets +3.5 vs. 
Chargers, 1371 picks, 665 net -- If hedging action explains some of the Bengals action, it would come into play here as well. The Jets remain undervalued in my very humble opinion. Would it shock anyone anywhere if the Chargers dominate the box score and the Jets sneak out a win, or at least keep it very close? 
Chiefs -1.5 vs 
Dolphins, 1370 picks, 261 net -- Miami was actually the 7th most popular pick, so two sided action here. Good day to watch an early game with the clocks going back. We like the Chiefs in a bounceback spot plus the Dolphins have yet to break their pattern of torching mediocre and bad teams and coming up short vs the elite tier. The Dolphins got to Germany first, which does give me pause.
Eagles -3 vs 
Cowboys, 1284 picks, 312 net -- Another game with two popular sides and a rare week when the Eagles did not make our card. The Cowboys looked great last week so will probably lay an egg. The Eagles look great most weeks and seem to cover even on off weeks. Apropos of nothing, I could really go for a Philly cheesesteak.
We will try to improve on our league average placement with the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs, Texans -2.5 and Patriots -3. Three of those made the top five, which was absolutely not our goal.
Week 8 Review
Mean reversion anyone? Contestants in the Circa Millions followed up a season worst 44.14 percent win rate in Week 7 with a season best 54.95 percent in Week 8, pushing the overall 2023 mark to 50.81 percent.
Importantly, that is still a disappointing overall number when you consider edges vs stale lines available here but not in actual betting. We went 2-3 and check in at an almost cartoonishly perfect league average 20-19-1 on the season.
Riding with the consensus choice absolutely smashed in Week 8. Eight of the top nine picks won, and the other was a push. Overall consensus choices went 11-4-1, and adding up the total picks on each consensus side hit at 78.82 percent after cratering to 29.26 percent in Week 7.
