This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It is Week 11 in the NFL season and the second week of Quarter 3 in the Circa Millions contest. Lots of double digit spreads this week! So who did the contestants ride with this week?
All of the top five picks are favored in the actual betting lines, and all are at home, common themes in 2023. More on that below. For now, the top five are the following.
Browns pick 'em vs 
Steelers, 1632 picks, 655 net: Lots of belief in Dorian Thompson-Robinson or just a play on some line value? I will guess the latter. This spread has gone all over the place, from Browns -4 pre-Deshaun Watson news, to pick 'em, then back up as high as Browns -2.5 on Saturday. I like the Steelers here, as evidenced by the fact that we put them on our card this week even with the Browns -1.5 when we settled on the pick. The bigger surprise here is not pool players riding the line value but the move in the actual betting line. The Browns defense ranks best in the league on both DVOA and ESPN FPI and they have gone 6-3 despite poor QB play, so yes, they have hit on a winning formula. The Steelers have truly found the devil magic, somehow going 6-3 despite never outgaining an opponent in 2023. It has all the makings of a 13-10 rock fight.
Rams +1 vs 
Seahawks, 1631 picks, 969 net: More line value! The Rams sit at -2 as I type. As in Browns-Steelers, the move is large in points terms but not through particularly key numbers. Matthew Stafford returns to rescue a Rams offense that sunk to Giants-bad without him. Paging Joe Pendleton, or rather Tom Jarrett.. Hey, every year a team or two look like toast at mid season then get hot in the second half and challenge for a playoff spot, The Jags, Lions and Packers all fit that profile in 2022. Can the Rams be that team in 2023? Who knows, but I do like them here as they made our card.
Dolphins -13.5 vs 
Raiders, 1558 picks, 990 net: De'Von Achane and his 12 yards per carry return for a Dolphins offense that has steamrolled the NFL's underclass. Double digit home favorites have gone 8-2 ATS this season. Just win (with chalk), baby
Chiefs -2.5 over 
Eagles, 1458 picks, 737 net: We went with the revenge angle and took the Eagles here, not a popular idea apparently. Then again we take the Eagles almost every week. Each team feels like they have another higher gear that they have not quite hit in 2023, yet they and the Niners top the Super Bowl odds board. There is a shade of line value with the line bouncing between Eagles +2.5 at lower juice and Chiefs -3 at -120.
Broncos -2.5 vs 
Vikings, 1344 picks, 369 net. Two resurgent teams, two resurgent quarterbacks. Well, I guess Josh Dobbs is more "surgent" since he never really did much in the NFL before this season. Again, line value as the Broncos mostly sit at -3 with extra juice. The Broncos season-long defensive metrics mislead as that 70-burger the Dolphins put up on them will never go away. Giving up over 30 to the Jets looks even worse. Lately though the Broncos have held the Bills and Chiefs (twice) pretty much in check.
Our picks are Steelers, Rams, Eagles, Cowboys -10.5 over the Panthers and Commanders -8.5 over the Giants. We originally planned to go with the Cards +4.5 but shied away with the betting line move to +6.
Week 10 Review
Circa Millions contestants kept their hot run going for a third straight week, hitting 53.77% overall and pulling the season tally up to 51.55%.
Roughly 100 contestants miss pick submission every week, and I will take an educated guess that those players have not put up good results. So on the margins, the herd has been culled a bit.
The consensus side went a meh 7-6-1, but the more popular picks fared better. Three of the top four won, and the other was a push on the Lions -3. The sum total on the consensus sides hit at a 54.29% clip.
We started the quarter 3-2, hitting on the Colts, Steelers and Bucs and losing on the Falcons and Saints. We started the season 4-1 and have gone between 2-3 and 3-2 every week since and sit at an impossibly middling 25-24-1.
As I mentioned last week and up top, the "sharp" crowd (present company excluded) has gone full chalk this season. Just adding up the consensus picks, the pool has gone with favorites overall 61.76% of the time through Week 10. When it is the home team giving the points, that number jumps to 66.17%. These numbers will go even higher when I add in Week 11 picks.
So if the "pros" want to ride home chalk, should we follow? As per the Rotowire NFL Historical Odds calculator home chalk has gone 47-39-4 this season for a 54.65% winning percentage, soo there is a small edge this season. Road favorites have basically flatlined at 27-29-5. The home favorite "edge" will absolutely mean revert over time, but it is fairly interesting that the pool has liked an ostensibly "square" play, and it has delivered to some extent in 2023.
