This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 12 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -3.0 O/U 43.5 (Steelers -3.5, O/U 36.0)
- Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 45.5 (Chiefs -10.5, O/U 41.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears -3.0 O/U 45.0 (Vikings -3.5, O/U 39.5)
- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans -5.5 O/U 46.5 (Texans -8.0, O/U 42.0)
- Detroit Lions -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts O/U 47.5 (Lions -7.5, O/U 50.5)
- New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins -6.5 O/U 45.0 (Dolphins -7.0, O/U 46.0)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.0 at New York Giants O/U 44.0 (Bucs -5.0, O/U 41.5)
- Dallas Cowboys -2.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 46.0 (Commanders -10.5, O/U 45.5)
- Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 O/U 42.0 (Broncos -5.5, O/U 41.0)
- San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at Green Bay Packers O/U 47.0 (Packers -2.5, O/U 48.0)
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks -3.0 O/U 46.0 (Seahawks -1.0, O/U 47.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams -0.5 O/U 47.0 (Eagles -3.0, O/U 50.5)
- Baltimore Ravens -2.0 at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 47.0 (Ravens -3.0, O/U 51.0)
BYES:Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
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NFL Week 12 Key Injury News
QB - Brock Purdy (SF)
RB - Raheem Mostert (MIA), Isiah Pacheco (KC), Tyjae Spears (TEN), Alexander Mattison (LV), Zamir White (LV)
WR - Ladd McConkey (LAC), Darnell Mooney (ATL), Puka Nacua (LAR), Gabe Davis (JAC), Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
TE - George Kittle (SF), Jake Ferguson (DAL)
NFL Week 12 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Chiefs -10.5 at Panthers; the lowest spread is Cardinals at Seahawks -1.0
- The highest totals are Chargers/Ravens and Lions/Colts 51.0 ; the lowest total is Steelers/Browns 36.5
- There are 4 road favorites in Week 11
- The five highest team totals are Lions, Commanders, Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles
- The five lowest team totals are Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Titans, Raiders
NFL Week 12 Line Movement
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
The Browns opened -3.0 point home favorites, but between their disappointing season and the Steelers strong start; this line has moved 6.5 points with the Steelers now -3.5 point road favorites. This is a big swing as the line moved through 0 and peaked at -5.5 before coming back down to -3.5. Sharp bettors have jumped all over the Browns at more than a field goal at home especially in a game with the lowest total on the board (36.5).
The total opened at 43.5 and has steadily declined. The Browns rank 31st in points per game (16.2) and the Steelers rank 2nd in points allowed (16.2).
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
This is similar to the Steelers/Browns as the Bears opened as 3.0 point home favorites, but the Vikings are now -3.5 point road favorites for a total of 6.5 points of line movement. The total has also dropped from 45.0 to 39.5 as both defenses are strong and the Bears passing offense looks mostly awful.
Another game in which one team (Vikings) has exceeded expectations and the other one (Bears) has fallen short of them. The Bears sit on the verge of a complete collapse after losing 4 in a row, including last week to the Packers on a blocked field goal. The Bears defense actually ranks 9th in passing yards allowed and 7th in points allowed, but their passing offense is near dead last in the NFL (30th).
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
I wrote up the Texans/Cowboys Monday night game and swept the board going against Dallas. Now we see the line movement get even bigger as the Cowboys are probably the worst team in football at this point after losing their last two games by a combined score of 68-16.
The Cowboys opened -2.5, and the line has moved a full 13 points now in favor of the Commanders at -10.5. The interesting thing about the total is that it has not moved much at all, reflecting the weak public perception of the Cowboys.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders opened as 3.0 point home favorites, but the Broncos are now 5.5 point road favorites. The Raiders have lost 6 in a row for a combined score of 188-109 (31.3-18.1).
Bettors will be enticed to take the home divisional dog, but the Raiders are much like the Cowboys right now in that they are much worse than the public realizes.
