NFL MVP Race: Changing Lines and Predictions as the Season Unfolds

The NFL MVP race is still up in the air heading into Week 16, though the favorite at this point is a player who wasn't on many people's MVP radar when 2023 NFL MVP odds were first available, or even in the early portion of the season. As we prepare for the final three weeks of the regular season, let's take a look at how MVP lines have moved throughout the year and where things stand now, while also predicting who will ultimately be crowned the 2023 NFL MVP. The historical and current odds below come from Covers.com.

Current NFL MVP Odds (December 2023)

Our look back at the 2023 NFL MVP odds journey will start from the very beginning, but before we do that, let's take a look at where things currently stand. Here are the nine MVP frontrunners entering Week 16:

Brock Purdy (-200) and 49ers teammate Christian McCaffrey (+1000) occupy two of the top four spots. Purdy's 9.9 yards per pass attempt (YPA) is the best single-season mark among qualified quarterbacks since 1956, though he's barely ahead of Kurt Warner's 9.9 from 2000 (Purdy's YPA is 9.883, Warner's was 9.882). Funny enough, Warner won MVP in 1999 and 2001 but lost in 2000 to teammate Marshall Faulk. Purdy also leads the NFL in TD passes (29) and is second behind Tua Tagovailoa (3,921) in passing yards (3,795), so his MVP case is much closer to Warner's than 2018 Ryan Fitzpatrick (9.6 YPA) or 2019 Ryan Tannehill's (9.6 YPA) among modern YPA marks in Purdy's ballpark.

Lamar Jackson (+450) has helped the Ravens to an 11-3 record, identical to that of Purdy's 49ers. Jackson also leads all QBs in rushing yards with 741 and needs just 22 passing yards to match his total from his MVP season in 2019, but Jackson had a 36:6 TD:INT that year compared to a 17:7 mark in 2023. Jackson could bolster his case with a big game against Purdy's 49ers on Monday, but he has some ground to make up as of now.

Dak Prescott (+600) built some major momentum by posting a 22:2 TD:INT over a span of seven consecutive games with multiple TD passes, but his putrid Week 15 performance on a big stage in Buffalo could torpedo his MVP candidacy. Dak threw for just 134 yards without a TD, and the Cowboys dropped to 10-4, knocking them out of a tie for the league's best record. 

Christian McCaffrey (+1000) is vying to become the first non-QB MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. McCaffrey is tied with Raheem Mostert for the league lead with 20 scrimmage TDs, and San Francisco's locker room is divided on whether McCaffrey or Purdy is more deserving of the award, but Purdy's statistical case is stronger based on past MVP voting patterns. 

Jalen Hurts (+1500) led the Eagles to a 10-1 record, but Philadelphia dropping three straight has hurt his MVP case. His 14 rushing TDs are one more than he had last season, but Hurts has doubled last year's interception total with 12. 

Josh Allen (+1600) is perennially in the MVP mix and has 37 combined rushing and passing TDs, but he had 45, 42 and 42 over the previous three seasons without winning MVP. Buffalo still has work to do just to make the playoffs at 8-6, and the Bills actually do better when Allen's asked to do less, as he had just seven completions in the 31-10 win over the Cowboys in Week 15. 

Patrick Mahomes (+1600) has had to put up with abhorrent play from his wide receivers. It's a testament to his ability that Kansas City is chugging along towards another AFC West title at 9-5, but Mahomes has just 25 passing TDs after throwing 50 in his 2018 MVP season and 41 in last year's MVP campaign.  

Tyreek Hill (+2500) has about the same odds of winning MVP as he does of reaching 2,000 receiving yards, which is probably what the star wide receiver will have to do to get the award. After missing Week 15 with an ankle injury, he'll need to average 152.7 receiving yards against the stout Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo secondaries to get there. It's an uphill battle for Hill, who is having a memorable season nonetheless, as he leads the league in both receiving yards (1,542) and receiving TDs (12). 

Tua Tagovailoa (+2500) has thrown for 240 or fewer yards in the last two games, both of which Hill missed part or all of. It's clear that Hill is the engine that drives Miami's offense, so Tua's MVP odds have gotten much longer down the stretch. 

Now that we see where things currently stand in the MVP race, let's look at how we got here. 

Opening NFL MVP Odds (February 2023)

The top 10 spots in the opening 2023 NFL MVP odds were all occupied by quarterbacks. These odds were revealed Feb. 14, just after Super Bowl LVII.:

The top nine spots all belonged to QBs who led their respective teams to the playoffs last season, while the tenth-shortest odds belonged to Aaron Rodgers, who won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 before being unseated by Mahomes in 2022. Current MVP favorite Purdy actually started right around Rodgers' odds in February, but his odds ballooned to +4000 by Week 1, which is the next interval we'll examine. 

Week 1 NFL MVP Odds (September 2023)

Injuries and performance level had yet to become factors heading into Week 1, so you could still find elite values like Purdy at +4000 or Tyreek Hill at +12,500. While odds shifted between February and September, these shifts weren't nearly as significant as the moves over the next five-week interval, when actual on-field results came into play.

Week 6 NFL MVP Odds (October 2023)

The MVP race had started to take shape nearly a third of the way through the season, with odds getting shorter for early top performers. The buy-low window on Purdy slammed shut, while MVP bettors had yet to grasp just how much of Tua's success came courtesy of Hill. Prescott (+3000) and Joe Burrow (+4000) slipped out of the top 10 after slow starts, though both would make a midseason charge in the next interval or two. 

Week 11 NFL MVP Odds (November 2023) 

What a difference five weeks makes. Prescott's odds were a season-low +6600 heading into Week 10, fresh off a loss to Hurts' Eagles, who were flying high with one loss and the MVP frontrunner. Prescott's rebound began with four TDs against the Giants, as he got back to the same +3000 odds he had five weeks earlier, while the likes of Trevor Lawrence (+5000) and Justin Herbert (+8000) began dropping out of the mix, and Hill (+5000) had yet to truly enter it. Burrow and Herbert hadn't yet suffered season-ending injuries, San Francisco's three-game losing streak from Weeks 6-8 was still fresh in bettors' minds, and Kansas City's swoon hadn't begun.  

MVP Prediction: Brock Purdy

Five weeks ago, we seemed to be down to four main frontrunners for MVP. Only one member of that group is still in the top four, so a lot can still change in the final three weeks. That being said, it's Purdy's award to lose. A head-to-head win at home over Jackson's Ravens would just about seal it for Purdy. McCaffrey isn't neutralizing his candidacy the way Hill has done to Tua, plus the Dolphins struggle against good teams and have a tough closing schedule. Dak's poor road numbers are hard to overlook, Jackson doesn't have a great statistical MVP case, Hurts' Eagles are in a tailspin, and Allen and Mahomes aren't doing anything special by their lofty standards. Even a home loss to the Ravens on Monday wouldn't necessarily doom Purdy's case, as he's posting historic efficiency numbers and could still wind up with the league lead in passing TDs, passing yards, or both.