NFL Injury Analysis: A Primer on How to Use This Column

NFL Injury Analysis: A Primer on How to Use This Column

This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.

I've been writing injury analysis for Rotowire since 2008. My second week on the job I was tasked with explaining the devastating knee injury sustained by Tom Brady. Brady's torn ACL and MCL ended his season and suddenly made Matt Cassel fantasy relevant. However, over the last 16 seasons of breaking down injuries I've never given a true primer on how I think my column is best utilized. As we kick off a new year, I'm going to explain how I would supplement my analysis with league injury and practice reports to best manage injuries when they inevitably occur.

As soon as injury occurs, I attempt to watch the play in which the player went down. The mechanism of injury can help me begin to consider potential outcomes and initiate ideas on how to best explain what has happened. Team reports and quotes help add context to my thought process and help me focus my analysis. Significant injuries are easier to navigate, as the player will miss time and a backup will be elevated up the depth chart. I provide as much insight on Tuesday as possible then wait for the week to progress.

It gets trickier when the injury isn't as obvious, or the status and availability of the athlete remains unclear. In these situations, I try to provide context on what is likely to occur using experience and statistics. To best prepare for your subsequent matchup, the information gathered here should then be paired with the weekly practice reports

I've been writing injury analysis for Rotowire since 2008. My second week on the job I was tasked with explaining the devastating knee injury sustained by Tom Brady. Brady's torn ACL and MCL ended his season and suddenly made Matt Cassel fantasy relevant. However, over the last 16 seasons of breaking down injuries I've never given a true primer on how I think my column is best utilized. As we kick off a new year, I'm going to explain how I would supplement my analysis with league injury and practice reports to best manage injuries when they inevitably occur.

As soon as injury occurs, I attempt to watch the play in which the player went down. The mechanism of injury can help me begin to consider potential outcomes and initiate ideas on how to best explain what has happened. Team reports and quotes help add context to my thought process and help me focus my analysis. Significant injuries are easier to navigate, as the player will miss time and a backup will be elevated up the depth chart. I provide as much insight on Tuesday as possible then wait for the week to progress.

It gets trickier when the injury isn't as obvious, or the status and availability of the athlete remains unclear. In these situations, I try to provide context on what is likely to occur using experience and statistics. To best prepare for your subsequent matchup, the information gathered here should then be paired with the weekly practice reports and game reports.

Three practice reports are provided for most games played in the NFL. The timing of the practice report's release is dependent on the day the game take place. For example, teams playing on Sunday will release practice reports on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Those playing on other days adjust accordingly. 

Practice reports are supposed to describe the injury sustained and the athlete's level of participation in daily practice. The three primary classifications are:

1.     Did Not Participate in Practice (DNP)

2.     Limited Participation in Practice (LP)

3.     Full Participation in Practice (FP)

I look at these like a stop light, meaning red (did not), yellow (limited) and green (full go). If I have a player in the red, I'll start looking for alternative options. Yellow players require daily check-ins with a hope of them changing to green. Injury reports help but can still create ambiguous situations. For example, veterans or other proven players may receive routine days off from practice while certain injured players will remain red all week but be active on game day. This is where the injury report comes in.

Teams are required to release injury reports two days before a game, with the exception being Wednesday, Thursday or Friday night games. Those reports are announced the day prior to game day.

A player's game status will also include the injury and three possible classifications:

1.     Out: The player will not play

2.     Doubtful: The player is unlikely to play

3.     Questionable: The player is not certain to play

Generally speaking, a player listed as doubtful has less than a 50 percent chance of playing while someone listed as questionable is 50 percent or better. Pair injury reports with a player's practice status to better gauge availability. Hopefully that helps explain what to expect in the season ahead and will better prepare you for when one of your rostered players is hurt.

Keenan Allen

The veteran wideout will be in uniform for his Bears debut in Week 1. Allen missed time last week with foot discomfort. Considering Allen missed the final four games of the 2023 season with a heel injury, the news was alarming. However, his problem was reportedly the result of an issue with his cleats. NFL players modify their cleats in an assortment of ways. Some wear orthotic inserts to pad their feet, others will file down certain areas to prevent pressure or blistering. The type of spike on the bottom of the cleat can be altered based on the weather and playing surface, and some players wrap their cleats for additional ankle support. While footwear may not cross the mind of fantasy players, improperly fitted or unsuitable cleats can impact performance and increase the risk of injuries to the foot and ankle. It appears Allen has identified his unspecified problem and has returned to practice and is not expected to be listed on the team's injury report. Concerns about his workload, age and quarterback situation will linger for now, but Allen is healthy and ready to continue his illustrious career.

Turf Burns

Mark Andrews: The Ravens tight end will be available for Thursday's Week 1 matchup with the Chiefs. He was not listed on the injury report for Thursday's contest despite missing practice time for an undisclosed injury sustained in a recent car accident.

Jahmyr Gibbs: If his return to practice didn't do enough to reduce the injury anxiety surrounding Gibbs, head coach Dan Campbell saying he had no injury concerns about his explosive running back should do the trick. Gibbs, along with tight end Sam LaPorta, suffered a hamstring injury in early August and was limited throughout training camp and the preseason. As mentioned last week, feel free to use them as you normally would for Week 1, but understand they will carry an increased degree of injury risk to begin the year.

Dallas Goedert: Goedert practiced over the weekend and will likely play Friday against the Packers. The Philly tight end missed nearly two weeks with an oblique strain but appears to have recuperated enough to play. Oblique strains do not carry a significant risk of reinjury, and Goedert should carry his normal level of risk into the regular season.

Justin Herbert: The Chargers quarterback continues to progress and appears on track for Week 1. Herbert has been battling plantar fasciitis in his foot but has gradually upped his workload in practice. He will carry an elevated level of inherent risk moving forward but should be utilized where needed.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: Miami's top receiving threats returned to practice Monday after nursing minor injuries over the past week. Hill's injury involved his thumb, but he alleviated any fantasy concerns telling reporters, "I'm fine, I'm healthy. All of my fantasy draft people, I'm fine. I'm A-OK, 100%. I just wanted to troll y'all a little bit." Waddle's injury still carries a degree of mystery, but specifics on an undisclosed ailment may come to light if he appears on either report later this week. Details on the injury shouldn't impact his Week 1 availability, but could influence his level of injury risk and any long-term concerns about his durability.

CeeDee Lamb: The unprepared fantasy manager may have been surprised to see the Cowboys wide receiver carry an "injury designation" on draft day. However, the OUT listing is linked to Lamb's inclusion on the commissioner's exempt list, not to an injury. The move is purely procedural and means Lamb does not count toward the team's 53-man roster. This allows Dallas to slow play their final roster selection while Lamb continues to make up for time lost during contract negotiations. He can be activated at any time and be active for Week 1. Lamb has been limited in his first few practices as Dallas monitored his workload. The All-Pro wideout was more active Monday and is expected to play in Week 1 in Cleveland. Hopefully the red flag on the automated draft boards helped you get Lamb at a discounted rate, as he remains a top fantasy option. 

Christian McCaffrey: The 49ers running back is expected to return to practice Tuesday after missing the majority of training camp with a calf strain. The 49ers do not play until Monday night giving McCaffrey additional time to prepare. All signs suggest McCaffrey will suit up, though it wouldn't be surprising to see his workload reduced to start the season. Jordan Mason will slot in as McCaffrey's backup with veteran Elijah Mitchell on the season-ending injured reserve following hamstring surgery.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Stotts
Jeff Stotts works as a Certified Athletic Trainer (MAT, ATC, PES, CES). He won the 2011 Best Fantasy Football Article in Print from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association.
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