This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay (+3), o/u 56.0 – Saturday, 6:30 p.m. EST
It took 55 tries, but the NFL finally has a team playing in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. This might have been the matchup most people were hoping for ever since Tom Brady split for a warmer climate, and now that it's here there's a very good chance it'll live up to the hype. Including playoffs, Kansas City is a ridiculous 25-1 with Patrick Mahomes under center since Week 11 of 2019, scoring at least 30 points in over half of those games. Not a bad little run. On the other sideline, Brady hasn't lost since Week 12 and has tossed multiple touchdowns in 10 consecutive games, with the team averaging 34.3 points a game during its seven-game winning streak. In other words, both offenses are humming, and while the two defenses have their strengths, it's hard to imagine this becoming a low-scoring, grind-it-out contest.
Both teams also have reasons to be confident. In addition to being the reigning champs, Kansas City was the last team to hand Tampa Bay a loss, sinking them 27-24 in this very stadium thanks to that 269-yard, three-TD performance from Tyreek Hill. As for the Bucs, their receiving corps has the firepower to keep up with Hill, Travis Kelce, etc., but the ace up their sleeves could be the pass rush. Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and crew sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC championship
Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay (+3), o/u 56.0 – Saturday, 6:30 p.m. EST
It took 55 tries, but the NFL finally has a team playing in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. This might have been the matchup most people were hoping for ever since Tom Brady split for a warmer climate, and now that it's here there's a very good chance it'll live up to the hype. Including playoffs, Kansas City is a ridiculous 25-1 with Patrick Mahomes under center since Week 11 of 2019, scoring at least 30 points in over half of those games. Not a bad little run. On the other sideline, Brady hasn't lost since Week 12 and has tossed multiple touchdowns in 10 consecutive games, with the team averaging 34.3 points a game during its seven-game winning streak. In other words, both offenses are humming, and while the two defenses have their strengths, it's hard to imagine this becoming a low-scoring, grind-it-out contest.
Both teams also have reasons to be confident. In addition to being the reigning champs, Kansas City was the last team to hand Tampa Bay a loss, sinking them 27-24 in this very stadium thanks to that 269-yard, three-TD performance from Tyreek Hill. As for the Bucs, their receiving corps has the firepower to keep up with Hill, Travis Kelce, etc., but the ace up their sleeves could be the pass rush. Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and crew sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC championship game, and Mahomes will be missing both his starting tackles. Forcing him to leave the pocket and get creative isn't necessarily a good idea, but if the Tampa Bay front seven can make Mahomes uncomfortable, Brady could erase one of the few things Peyton Manning has over him on their respective resumes and become only the second QB in history to start and win Super Bowls for multiple teams. The wild card, of course, is how much of an advantage the Bucs get as they make history by playing host to the big game. Home-field advantage hasn't been worth as much as usual in general during this most unusual season, but the numbers suggest this one will be close enough that any boost they get could make the difference.
The Skinny
KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, calf), LT Eric Fisher (out, Achilles), RT Mitchell Schwartz (IR, back)
TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (questionable, knee), TE Cameron Brate (questionable, back)
KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce (TB 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
TB DFS targets: Leonard Fournette (KC 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)
KC DFS fades: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (TB first in rushing DVOA)
TB DFS fades: none
Key stat: KC is third in third-down conversions at 49.0 percent; TB is 14th in third-down defense at 40.0 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 6-10 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Darrel Williams leads the KC backfield with 60 combined yards. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and Hill and Mecole Hardman once each. Fournette bangs out 100 scrimmage yards and a TD, while Ronald Jones adds 60 yards. Brady throws for 270 yards and scores to Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans, but his fourth-quarter comeback attempt falls short. Kansas City, 34-30
Postseason record: 6-6, 5-7 ATS, 4-7-1 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
Lifetime record: 957-573-6, 722-756-58 ATS, 610-644-26 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
