This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Stat of the Week I: Entering 2014, only 12 rookies eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving since the merger. Three accomplished the feat this season (Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin), with Sammy Watkins falling just 18 yards short.
Stat of the Week II: Entering 2014, only seven rookies totaled 1,000 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns in NFL history. Beckham and Evans both did it this season, with Benjamin one touchdown short.
WILD-CARD PLAYOFFS
Arizona (+6) at Carolina, Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
Arizona: The Cardinals were 10-0 under Bruce Arians when leading at halftime before falling to San Francisco 20-17 in Week 17, a game they led 17-13 at the break. This team feels eerily similar to the 2013 Chiefs (albeit a less talented version), who closed with five losses in their final seven games following a 9-0 start. After winning nine of their first 10, Arizona went 2-4 down the stretch, dropping to the fifth seed a la Kansas City a season ago. If the serviceable Drew Stanton (knee) can't go, this game would feature the second-fewest wins in a season by starting quarterbacks in playoff history as Ryan Lindley (0) and Cam Newton (5) have combined for five. (The record is three, when Mike Tomczak (1) faced Jeff Hostetler (2) in 1990.) Lindley finally threw his first two career touchdowns, pairing them with three costly interceptions. For his career, Lindley completes 50.8 percent of his passes for 5.0 YPA and a 2:11 TD:INT ratio while Carolina ranks 11th against the pass (227.8 YPG). Michael Floyd, 34th among WR, scored seven more points in the finale than his previous five games combined (20). Floyd averages 77.4 yards the last five weeks, a significant improvement from his previous eight (25.3 YPG). Larry Fitzgerald, 55th in WR scoring, hasn't topped 34 yards or three points in a game since Week 10, totaling 159 and 14 during that span. Kerwynn Williams, 67-plus yards in three of four, is the only hope at establishing the run for the Cardinals, neck-and-neck with Oakland for worst rushing attack in football. Carolina is 27th in YPC allowed (4.5) but Arizona, 31st in both rushing yards (81.8 YPG) and touchdowns (6), ranks last in YPC (3.3).
Carolina: The Panthers destroyed Atlanta 34-3 in the Georgia Dome last week, becoming the first NFC South club to repeat as division champions despite going 1-8-1 Weeks 3-13. Carolina surrendered just 43 points during this four-game winning streak (10.75 PPG), no more than 17 in any. You could make the case a 7-8-1 team doesn't deserve to play host to a playoff game, but the last three .500 or worse postseason qualifiers won on wild-card Weekend (2008 Chargers, 2010 Seahawks, 2011 Broncos). CAR will be able to move the ball offensively, but needs to capitalize in the red area: Despite ranking fifth in scoring (18.7 PPG), Arizona allowed 368.2 total YPG (24th) and 5.8 yards per play (25th). Cam Newton is 0-2 career against the Cards, losing 22-6 in Week 5 of 2013 and 28-21 in Week 1 of 2011, but both meetings were in Arizona. Although he missed two games and scored 19-plus points just once prior to Week 14, Newton finished 15th in QB points thanks to 76 over his final three games (25.3 FPPG), scoring at least 19 in each. The Cardinals' 29th-ranked pass defense (259.5 YPG) allows 16.0 FPPG to quarterbacks, 10th most. Kelvin Benjamin, tied 16th in WR scoring, had just 27 points and 240 yards over his final five games. Benjamin registered 56 yards or fewer in four of those and four total points the last two weeks. The rookie is overmatched against Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie, as both have the size and strength to handle him with far more speed. No. 4 TE Greg Olsen is ice cold, catching just three passes for 48 yards and no TD his last two games. However, he posted 20-182-1 the previous two weeks, and ARZ allows the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends (8.9 FPPG). RB24 Jonathan Stewart carried 91 times for 486 yards (5.3 YPC) in his final five games while ARZ allows 4.4 YPC (26th) but fourth-fewest points to opposing RB (13.2 FPPG).
Predictions:Cam Newton passes for 239 yards and a TD to Greg Olsen (7-83-1), rushing for 47 yards and another. Patrick Peterson owns Kelvin Benjamin, surrendering just four catches for 38 yards on 11 targets. Arizona stifles Jonathan Stewart, allowing just 52 yards on 17 carries. Michael Floyd (71 yards) and Larry Fitzgerald (75 yards) both fare well; Fitz reaches the painted area. Arizona hangs in for the cover; Super Cam notches his first postseason victory (lost 23-10 to SF last year, his only appearance). Carolina, 23-19.
Baltimore (+3) at Pittsburgh, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Baltimore: The Ravens outlasted Cleveland 20-10 in the regular-season finale, their third win in four games. That, coupled with San Diego going 1-3 over that same stretch, gave Baltimore its sixth playoff berth in seven years. Both meetings with Pittsburgh were decided by exactly 20 points with each team winning once, the fifth time in six years the two split the season series. Joe Flacco is 7-7 all-time against the Steelers in the regular season, losing the lone postseason matchup during that time (2010 AFC Divisional). Last time we saw Flacco, 9-4 career playoff record, in postseason play was 2012, when that sensational run (11:0 TD:INT ratio, 9.0 YPA) brought him the Super Bowl MVP trophy and subsequent monster contract. In his last seven games, fantasy's No. 13 QB scored 20-plus points three times (66 total) but 13 or fewer in the other four (44 combined). Only three teams gave up more passing TD than the Steelers (30), who allow the sixth-most points to QB (17.1 FPPG). Torrey Smith, t-18th among WR, scored three touchdowns and 31 points the last two weeks, giving him 11 and 129 in his final 13 games. Despite netting 8.3 YPT on his 92 targets, T. Smith averaged just 47.9 YPG and failed to reach the century mark even once. WR20 Steve Smith recorded his eighth career 1,000-yard season, defying Father Time once more. However, he could only manage 56 points his final 10 games after scoring 77 the first six. Only four teams surrendered more yards to WR than Pittsburgh (2,890), allowing the 11th-most points to the position (22.4 FPPG). Justin Forsett, eighth in RB scoring, ran for 119 yards (12 points) last week after only 67 (six points) the previous two combined. The league's fifth-leading rusher scored 11-plus points in five of his last seven and led all qualifying RB in YPC (5.4). Pittsburgh was sixth against the run (100.3 YPG) but allowed 4.4 YPC (25th).
Pittsburgh: The Steelers defeated Cincinnati, 27-17, to complete the season sweep and clinch their first AFC North crown since 2010. Pittsburgh closed on a four-game winning streak but lost its last two in the playoffs (2010 Super Bowl, 2011 wild card). No. 2 RB Le'Veon Bell (knee, hyperextension) is on the doubtful side of a questionable tag. Given his status, PIT signed Ben Tate on Tuesday while prepping diminutive speedster Dri Archer (4.26 40) and Josh Harris for expanded roles. Bell, double figures in six straight and 13 of his last 14, averaged only 11.0 FPPG in Weeks 16-17 after rolling up 121 points the previous four (30.25 FPPG). Not only is Bell gaining a paltry 2.7 YPC the last three weeks, he managed just 20 total points in two meetings with Baltimore, who allows a league-low 10.8 FPPG to RB and gets DT Haloti Ngata back this week (suspension). No. 5 QB Ben Roethlisberger has only 42 points and three TD the past three games. However, Roethlisberger averaged 336.4 YPG in his last five with 300-plus in four and torched the Ravens for 35 points (340 yards, six TD) last time. Antonio Brown finished as fantasy's top WR and set franchise records for receptions (129, second most all-time), yards (1,698) and touchdowns (13). Brown scored 83 points the last five games (16.6 per) with at least 11 in six straight and 11 of 12 while Ravens allow the fifth-most points to opposing WR (23.8 FPPG). Take out his 94-yard TD against Cincy in Week 14, and WR41 Martavis Bryant has merely 19 points and 145 yards his last six games (24.2 YPG, 3.2 FPPG). How Baltimore's depleted secondary fares against Pittsburgh's aerial attack will be critical. of course, the Steelers have a decided advantage in this area, but the weather (forecast calls for 100 percent chance of freezing rain) could play a key role.
Predictions:Joe Flacco throws for 253 yards and two TD. Torrey Smith and Steve Smith both catch touchdowns and top 65 yards receiving. Justin Forsett accumulates 89 total yards. The return of Haloti Ngata and health of Le'Veon Bell spells doom for Pittsburgh's rushing attack. Steelers total 51 rushing yards, but Ben Roethlisberger passes them out of it with 343 yards and three touchdowns, 138 and two to Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant scores the third TD on a post from 56 yards out. Steelers survive without their stud tailback. Pittsburgh, 27-20.
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Indianapolis, Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Cincinnati: The Bengals won five of their last seven to clinch their fourth straight playoff berth but lost the game and division title to Pittsburgh on Sunday night, dropping to 3-14 in their last 17 primetime games (3-7 under Andy Dalton). They played the Colts each of the last two seasons: winning 42-28 in Week 14 last year but getting shellacked 27-0 in their most recent meeting, Week 7 (first eight drives were three-and-out). Dalton, 18th in QB scoring, could be without his top target, A.J. Green (concussion). In three playoff games (all losses), he's completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 5.8 YPA and a 1:6 TD:INT ratio. The Red Rifle posted a subpar 19:17 TD:INT ratio this season and scored 13 points or fewer in five of his last six, committing at least one turnover in all six. Opposing quarterbacks had a 27:12 TD:INT ratio against Indianapolis' 12th-rated pass defense (229.3 YPG), sixth in completion percentage (58.9). Green, 21st among WR despite five injury-related goose eggs, eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving for the fourth consecutive year; marking the longest active streak overall and most 1,000-yard seasons to start a career since Randy Moss (6). However, Green scored just 10 points his last three games combined and Vontae Davis leads a Colts defense allowing 17.6 FPPG to opposing WR, t-fourth fewest. To say WR30 Mohamed Sanu has been minimally involved would be an understatement; he has no more than two receptions, three targets or 19 yards in five straight games and two points or fewer in seven of eight. Jeremy Hill used a sensational final nine games to finish ninth at his position, rushing for 929 yards and scoring 126 points (14.0 FPPG) over that span. Hill was even better the last three weeks, carrying 70 times for 395 yards (5.6 YPC) and 55 points (18.3 FPPG). Indy, tied for eighth-most points allowed to RB (18.1 FPPG), held Hill and RB18 Giovani Bernard to two points combined in the first meeting. Bernard scored receiving touchdowns and 11-plus points each of his last two games.
Indianapolis: The Colts recovered nicely from an 0-2 start, winning five of their last six to finish 11-5 for the third straight season. They made the playoffs in all three and won the AFC South each of the last two years. Indianapolis overcame a 38-10 third-quarter deficit to defeat Kansas City, 45-44, on wild-card Weekend a year ago; its only postseason victory since 2009. After leading the race all year, Andrew Luck finished second to Aaron Rodgers due to a lousy 28 points the final three weeks. Luck played only the first half against Tennessee but broke Peyton Manning's record for single-season passing yards (4,700 in 2010) and played turnover-free for the first time in seven games (11 TO in previous six). He threw for nearly as many touchdowns in 2014 (40) as his first two seasons combined (46; 23 apiece). However, the Stanford product struggled with turnovers both this year (career-high 20) and throughout his playoff career (nine in three games). Cincinnati, one of two teams with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed (18:19), allowed the third-fewest FPPG to opposing QB (13.2). Struggling through a hamstring injury, WR10 T.Y. Hilton totaled five points (50 yards) Weeks 15-17 after scoring 56 with 434 yards the three games prior (Weeks 12-14). Hilton posted 9-114-0 total in his two encounters with Cincy, third in points allowed to WR (17.3 FPPG). After watching Reggie Wayne get caught from behind with a 10-yard head start, I'm not sure who would win a foot race between he and Trent Richardson. Wayne (groin) and TE13 Dwayne Allen (knee) both appear on track to play. Donte Moncrief posted an 8-54-0 line on 16 targets over his final four games. No. 6 TE Coby Fleener scored 13-plus in four of the final eight games (68 points in those four) but managed just 13 points in the other four. Richardson rushed 14 times for 77 yards Week 7 against Cincy, registering season highs in YPC (5.5) and total yards (118), but has 29 YFS on 11 touches the last two weeks. Dan Herron carried 17 times for 38 yards during that same period but added six catches for 68 yards as a receiver. Although Bengals allow 19.4 FPPG to opposing RB (fifth-most) Herron has 22 points his past four games, seven or fewer in each. No. 3 K Adam Vinatieri finally missed a FG (46-yarder) after connecting on his first 29 attempts, but finished with a career-high 96.8-percent conversion rate nonetheless.
Predictions:A.J. Green gets the better of Vontae Davis, catching eight passes for 124 yards and a score. Jeremy Hill totes 17 times for 90 yards and a touch while Giovani Bernard adds 63 YFS. In his first ever turnover-free postseason performance, Andrew Luck passes for 282 yards and two TD. Coby Fleener (64 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (88 yards) are on the receiving end of said touchdowns. Andy Dalton chokes in the playoffs yet again, sealing his fate with two poorly thrown picks. Colts take care of business, not needing a 28-point comeback this time. Indianapolis, 26-21.
Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas, Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST
Detroit: The Lions' four-game winning streak was snapped in Green Bay during the regular-season finale, dropping them to 4-3 over their final seven games. This is just their second playoff berth since the turn of the century (2011 the other), and they haven't advanced in postseason play since 1991, the last time they had 11-plus wins. Excluding a two-game blip (34 points apiece in Weeks 13-14), Detroit averaged 14.2 PPG since Week 11. Matthew Stafford, 15th among QB, scored 20-plus in three of his last five but just 35 the last three weeks, failing to exceed 10 points twice. Stafford averaged only 13.4 FPPG in eight road games, scoring nine or fewer in three of his last four away from Ford Field. Although Dallas ranked 26th versus the pass (251.9 YPG), opposing quarterbacks posted a 22:18 TD:INT ratio and Stafford threw only 22 touchdowns all year. Furthermore, Detroit may be forced to turn to rookie Travis Swanson at RG with Larry Warford unlikely to play. Fortunately, the Cowboys will be without DT Henry Melton and were 28th in the NFL with only 28 sacks; plus, Swanson does have some experience, starting three games for Warford earlier this season. No. 14 WR Calvin Johnson had 499 yards and five touchdowns (77 points) the last five weeks (15.4 FPPG), reaching double figures in all but one. In his last two meetings with DAL, Johnson scored no less than 22 points, totaling 60. One of those was the 329-yard performance (non-OT record) and the aggregate line was 21-437-3 in the two games. Megatron went off for 211 yards and two touchdowns on 12 catches in his only postseason appearance but only Seattle allowed fewer WR touchdowns than Dallas (10), surrendering just 17.9 FPPG to the position (seventh fewest). WR13 Golden Tate managed a mere 32 points the past five weeks, scoring single digits each time. He finished with a career-high 1,331 yards (seventh in NFL) but only four TD, one in the last eight games. Joique Bell, 11th in RB scoring, failed to reach double figures for the first time in five games but had 77 points and five TD in those five, rushing for at least 60 yards and 4.0 YPC in each. Although Dallas was eighth against the run (103.1 YPG), only Atlanta allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Cowboys (18).
Dallas: Winners of their last four, the Cowboys secured their first playoff berth and NFC East title since 2009. Dallas scored at least 38 in all four (franchise record for consecutive 35-plus point games) and 31 or more in six of the last seven. The Cowboys are the sixth team since the merger to go undefeated away from home (second in team history). Four of the last five made it to the Super Bowl. No. 11 QB Tony Romo has a 34:9 TD:INT ratio and 8.5 YPA (highest since 2006). The last four games, Romo has 12 touchdowns (at least two in each) to just one interception and 83 fantasy points (no less than 17). Lions allow opposing quarterbacks 13.6 FPPG (t-sixth fewest), 6.8 YPA (eighth) and a 23:20 TD:INT ratio. Dez Bryant finished with 221 points (tied for third, Jordy Nelson) and a franchise-record 16 receiving touchdowns (Owens, 15 in 2007). He's had no less than 12 touchdowns, 88 receptions or 1,233 yards since 2011. Bryant scored 20-plus in four of his last seven games with 63 points in the last three. Bryant scored five times in three career games against DET, but this year Lions allow the 10th-fewest points to receivers (19.1 FPPG). Jason Witten finished as TE10 despite only two double-digit outputs. Excluding Week 16, Witten has 12 points his last four games combined. Top fantasy RB DeMarco Murray eclipsed 100 yards 12 times for a franchise-record 1,845 yards. Murray was held to less than 100 yards in three of his last five but rushed for at least one TD in all five with 93 total points (18.6 FPPG, 17.6 overall in 2014). Playing 16 games for the first time, Murray failed to score at least 11 points only once. Detroit, No. 1 in YPG (69.3) and YPC (3.2), allows 12.5 FPPG to RB (third fewest). Although Jim Caldwell said Nick Fairley would need "a miracle" to play, the Lions will have Ndamukong Suh after his suspension was rescinded. Rarely am I excited to watch a battle in the trenches, but it's not every day you see the best D-line in the game against the best offensive line. Given this matchup will almost certainly decide the game, Suh's suspension being overturned was ideal -- not right but, for competition's sake, the best outcome.
Predictions:Calvin Johnson accounts for 161 of Matthew Stafford's 332 yards and both touchdowns. Golden Tate adds 81 yards on eight grabs. Joique Bell rushes for 61 yards, contributing another 35 as a receiver. Reggie Bush chips in with 64 YFS. DeMarco Murray grinds out 95 hard-earned yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Tony Romo passes for 272 yards and two TD, both to Dez Bryant, who goes for 119 yards on seven receptions. Turnovers are the difference as Stafford gives it up twice, Romo doesn't. Dallas, 30-24.
