NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 15

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+6), 48.0 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The best third-place team in the NFL has found its stride, as the Falcons have won four of five, including a huge victory over the Saints last week to stay in the playoff hunt. One of those victories was also a 34-20 win over the Bucs, and while Jameis Winston wasn't under center for that game, his performance since his return to action hasn't exactly suggested he'll be able to change the outcome. With Tevin Coleman out, Devonta Freeman will get a chance to do what Coleman did while Freeman was sidelined – in those three games, Coleman rang up 243 YFS and four TDs. Tampa in theory has its own backfield dilemma to sort out, though it really shouldn't require that much thought given how good Peyton Barber has been looking compared to Doug Martin. The real problem for the Bucs has been the disappearance of Mike Evans. He hasn't scored since Week 7, and instead of sparking him back to life, Winston's return has suppressed his value even further – after routinely seeing double-digit targets all year, he's inexplicably only gotten 11 in two games with Winston back in charge.

The Skinny:
•2017 ATL offense: 22.6 PPG (16th), 116.8 rushing yds/gm (11th), 256.1 passing yds/gm (14th), 17 sacks allowed (T-2nd), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 TB offense: 20.3 PPG (T-21st), 91.5 rushing yds/gm (T-26th), 275.2 passing yds/gm (5th), 30 sacks allowed (T-14th), 20 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 ATL defense: 20.1 PPG allowed (9th), 108.3 rushing yds/gm (12th), 231.3 passing yds/gm (7th), 34 sacks (T-11th), 11 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 TB defense: 24.0 PPG allowed (22nd), 113.2 rushing yds/gm (17th), 283.8 passing yds/gm (32nd), 17 sacks (32nd), 24 turnovers (T-3rd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 ATL, average score ATL 29-TB 24, average margin of victory 11 points.
•Key injuries, ATL: RB Tevin Coleman (concussion, out), WR Mohamed Sanu (knee, questionable); TB: DT Gerald McCoy (biceps, out), LB Lavonte David (hamstring, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Freeman explodes for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Matt Ryan throws for 250 yards and TDs to Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel. Barber leads the TB backfield with 70 combined yards. Winston throws for 300 yards and three scores, finding DeSean Jackson once and Evans (who hauls in 110 yards) twice, but he also gets picked off twice. Falcons, 37-24

Houston (+10.5) at Jacksonville, 39.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Tom Savage's gruesome post-concussion seizure on the field last week – and the fact that he was allowed to take some snaps afterward before finally getting removed from the game – should result in a complete overhaul of how the NFL handles such situations in the future, but it probably won't. This is a league that just handed an incompetent petty tyrant like Roger Goodell a massive contract extension, after all. T.J. Yates will get to face the best defense in the league instead, and while he's probably not that much of a downgrade at QB, he'll also be working with an offensive group that sees most of its key skill players at less than 100 percent. What's worse, their own battered and bruised defense has to try to contain a suddenly effective Blake Bortles, who's put up a 9.3 YPA and 4:0 TD:INT the last two games. Sure, those performances came against the sad-sack Colts and gutted Seahawks secondaries, but it's not like the Texans' back end is any better.

The Skinny:
•2017 HOU offense: 24.0 PPG (12th), 114.9 rushing yds/gm (13th), 252.8 passing yds/gm (16th), 41 sacks allowed (T-27th), 24 turnovers (30th)
•2017 JAC offense: 25.3 PPG (T-6th), 149.9 rushing yds/gm (1st), 219.2 passing yds/gm (24th), 20 sacks allowed (T-5th), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 HOU defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (T-29th), 104.5 rushing yds/gm (10th), 256.4 passing yds/gm (25th), 30 sacks (T-20th), 16 turnovers (T-21st)
•2017 JAC defense: 15.5 PPG allowed (1st), 117.4 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 197.7 passing yds/gm (1st), 47 sacks (1st), 30 turnovers (1st)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 HOU, with HOU having won six straight prior to Week 1's 29-7 win by JAC. Average score HOU 24-JAC 19, average margin of victory 11 points.
•Key injuries, HOU: QB Tom Savage (concussion, doubtful), WR DeAndre Hopkins (toe, questionable), RB Lamar Miller (knee, questionable), DE Jadeveon Clowney (knee/illness, questionable), CB Johnathan Joseph (shoulder, questionable); JAC: RB Leonard Fournette (quad, questionable)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Miller gets held to 50 combined yards. Yates throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Tashaun Gipson returns for a TD. With Leonard Fournette getting held out, Chris Ivory piles up 80 yards and a touchdown. Bortles throws for 270 yards and scores to Dede Westbrook and Marcedes Lewis. Jaguars, 31-3

Baltimore at Cleveland (+7), 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Last week's gut-punch loss to the Steelers didn't put a big hole in the Ravens' playoff chances, especially when you look at their closing schedule: at CLE, then home vs. IND and CIN gives them an excellent shot at 10 wins and a likely wild-card berth. If would help if Joe Flacco continues his return to adequacy, though. His 7.5 and 7.7 YPAs the last two weeks don't look like much, but they're his second and third best marks of the season, and he has a tidy 4:1 TD:INT in those games as well. There isn't much encouraging going on with the Browns to suggest they can steal this one, especially after blowing a two-TD lead against Brett Hundley in the fourth quarter last week. Josh Gordon clearly still has it, but DeShone Kizer doesn't, and it's taken 17 targets heaved Gordon's way for the prodigal receiver to produce seven catches, 154 yards and a touchdown in two games.

The Skinny:
•2017 BAL offense: 24.5 PPG (9th), 118.3 rushing yds/gm (9th), 192.8 passing yds/gm (30th), 24 sacks allowed (9th), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 CLE offense: 15.2 PPG (32nd), 108.2 rushing yds/gm (16th), 222.7 passing yds/gm (22nd), 41 sacks allowed (T-27th), 32 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 BAL defense: 18.9 PPG allowed (4th), 108.5 rushing yds/gm (13th), 239.8 passing yds/gm (15th), 36 sacks (T-7th), 29 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 CLE defense: 25.8 PPG allowed (T-29th), 96.0 rushing yds/gm (6th), 243.2 passing yds/gm (19th), 25 sacks (T-25th), 11 turnovers (T-29th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 BAL, with BAL winning four straight. Average score BAL 24-CLE 17, average margin of victory eight points. Only two of the games in that stretch have been decided by more than 10 points, but they were the most recent two.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: BAL, third against WR1s (minus 27.5 percent DVOA), first against WR2s (minus 49.9 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (plus 21.3 percent DVOA); CLE, 28th against WR1s (plus 23.4 percent DVOA), sixth against WR2s (minus 22.0 percent DVOA), 32nd against TEs (plus 28.3 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 25.7 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alex Collins runs for 70 yards, but Danny Woodhead catches a TD pass. Flacco throws for 240 yards and two more scores, finding Jeremy Maclin and Ben Watson in the end zone. Duke Johnson leads the CLE backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown. Kizer throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Gordon for a TD. Ravens, 27-17

Green Bay (+3) at Carolina, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Much like a certain rug, Aaron Rodgers really ties the Packers together, so it's somewhat remarkable that the team managed not to get eliminated from playoff contention while he was recovering from his broken collarbone. Even so, it's going to take yet another Rodgers holiday miracle to drag them into a wild-card spot the next three weeks, and a road tilt against the third-best pass rush in the league might prove to be a little too stiff of a challenge for a QB who isn't yet 100 percent healthy. The Green Bay defense also needs to contend with a suddenly very dangerous Carolina backfield. Cam Newton is still Cam Newton, while Jonathan Stewart has racked up five rushing TDs and two 100-yard performances the last four games, with Christian McCaffrey adding four TDs and 343 YFS over the last five. With Kevin Benjamin in Buffalo, Devin Funchess nursing a shoulder injury and Greg Olsen still a non-factor, the Panthers have fallen back on their ground-and-pound instincts, and it's kept them in the hunt for the NFC South crown.

The Skinny:
•2017 GB offense: 21.9 PPG (T-17th), 106.8 rushing yds/gm (17th), 224.5 passing yds/gm (21st), 43 sacks allowed (29th), 15 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 CAR offense: 23.1 PPG (14th), 134.5 rushing yds/gm (5th), 210.5 passing yds/gm (28th), 30 sacks allowed (T-14th), 18 turnovers (18th)
•2017 GB defense: 23.2 PPG allowed (19th), 113.8 rushing yds/gm (18th), 256.7 passing yds/gm (26th), 31 sacks (T-16th), 22 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 CAR defense: 20.2 PPG allowed (10th), 89.5 rushing yds/gm (4th), 230.4 passing yds/gm (6th), 40 sacks (T-3rd), 14 turnovers (T-25th)
•Aaron Rodgers career stats versus CAR, four games: 2-2, 63.4 percent completion rate, 307.5 passing yds/gm, 12:2 TD:INT, 8.5 YPA, 112.1 QB rating.
•Cam Newton career stats versus GB, three games: 1-2 56.1 percent completion rate, 311.3 passing yds/gm, 5:5 TD:INT, 8.7 YPA, 81.3 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams bangs out 60 yards. Rodgers throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Jordy Nelson twice and Randall Cobb once, but he also gets sacked four times and throws two second-half INTs. Stewart only rushes for 50 yards but scores, while McCaffrey comes up with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Newton runs for 50 yards and a TD of his own while throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Funchess. Panthers, 34-24

Miami (+4) at Buffalo, 38.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: OK, where has thatJay Cutler been all year? The Fish treated the Patriots like they were all named Jonah last week with Cutler leading the charge, posting just his third game this season with zero interceptions, his second with three TDs and his first with a completion of more than 40 yards. Now let's see him do it again. The Bills' defense got a big assist from the weather in its win over the Colts, but it held Tom Brady to a respectable 23 points the week before and the Chiefs to just 10 in Week 12, so maybe Buffalo's figured something out on that front since hitting rock bottom and surrendering 101 points to the Saints and Chargers combined. At 7-6 they're still in the AFC playoff picture, and as long as Tyrod Taylor can stay in one piece they should remain a plausible threat.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIA offense: 18.2 PPG (24th), 87.4 rushing yds/gm (29th), 227.8 passing yds/gm (20th), 29 sacks allowed (T-11th), 23 turnovers (29th)
•2017 BUF offense: 18.5 PPG (23rd), 130.1 rushing yds/gm (6th), 182.8 passing yds/gm (32nd), 35 sacks allowed (22nd), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 MIA defense: 24.5 PPG allowed (26th), 109.5 rushing yds/gm (15th), 235.1 passing yds/gm (11th), 23 sacks (T-28th), 15 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 BUF defense: 22.3 PPG allowed (16th), 123.7 rushing yds/gm (26th), 236.5 passing yds/gm (11th), 21 sacks (T-30th), 20 turnovers (T-9th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BUF, average score BUF 24-MIA 18, average margin of victory 12 points.
•LeSean McCoy career stats versus MIA, five games: 61.0 rushing yds/gm, 3.6 YPC, four rushing TDs, 11 catches on 17 targets for 61 yards and a receiving TD
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake scampers for 130 combined yards. Cutler throws for 220 yards and a TD to Jarvis Landry. McCoy also piles up 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Taylor throws for 230 yards and runs for 40, finding Charles Clay in the end zone. Bills, 17-16

Cincinnati (+10.5) at Minnesota, 42.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: As embarrassing losses go, dropping one at home to the Bears 33-7 isn't quite in "we gave the Browns their only win of the season" territory, but it's pretty darn close. The Bengals continue to get mauled in the trenches, as Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen combined for 227 rushing yards while Andy Dalton got little time in the pocket, but at least this week they face a team with almost as many offensive line problems as Cincinnati has. Center Pat Elflein and left tackle Riley Reiff are both banged up for the Vikings, and while the Bengals' defense isn't quite as likely to take advantage as the Panthers did last week, it is in the top 10 in sacks, so Case Keenum could be in for another long day.

The Skinny:
•2017 CIN offense: 17.4 PPG (28th), 79.4 rushing yds/gm (31st), 214.9 passing yds/gm (25th), 33 sacks allowed (T-20th), 19 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 MIN offense: 23.8 PPG (13th), 121.1 rushing yds/gm (8th), 258.8 passing yds/gm (13th), 20 sacks allowed (T-5th), 13 turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 CIN defense: 20.8 PPG allowed (13th), 132.1 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 231.9 passing yds/gm (8th), 36 sacks (T-7th), 11 turnovers (T-29th)
•2017 MIN defense: 18.1 PPG allowed (3rd), 88.3 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 222.2 passing yds/gm (4th), 32 sacks (T-13th), 15 turnovers (T-23rd)
•Key injuries, CIN: RB Joe Mixon (concussion, questionable), LB Vontaze Burfict (concussion, out), DE Carlos Dunlap (chest, questionable), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, out), S Shawn Williams (hamstring, questionable); MIN: TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle, doubtful), LT Riley Reiff (ankle, doubtful)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Giovani Bernard leads the CIN backfield with 60 combined yards. Dalton throws for 230 yards and a TD to Tyler Boyd. Latavius Murray plows ahead for 70 yards and a touchdown. Keenum throws for 240 yards and a score to Stefon Diggs. Vikings, 20-13

Arizona (+4.5) at Washington, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Cardinals have arguably been the most mediocre team in the league this year, never winning more than one game in a row but never losing more than two in a row – which has to count as an achievement, given the early losses of David Johnson and Carson Palmer. They've now lost Adrian Peterson too, leaving the backfield duties in the hands of Kerwynn Williams and the other DJ, D.J. Foster, which isn't exactly a Saints-level duo in terms of talent. They still have a better record than a fading Washington squad, though, which has lost four of its last five (with the win coming against the Giants, so it shouldn't really count) and don't even have the crippling injuries excuse. Kirk Cousins' play has become more erratic as he increasingly tries to do too much, and a 5:4 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA over the last three games is not the last impression he wants to leave with GMs around the league who might be bidding on his services in a few months.

The Skinny:
•2017 ARI offense: 17.8 PPG (25th), 81.2 rushing yds/gm (30th), 262.7 passing yds/gm (11th), 44 sacks allowed (T-30th), 20 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 WAS offense: 21.9 PPG (T-17th), 97.6 rushing yds/gm (25th), 264.6 passing yds/gm (9th), 37 sacks allowed (23rd), 21 turnovers (27th)
•2017 ARI defense: 24.4 PPG allowed (25th), 96.8 rushing yds/gm (7th), 239.7 passing yds/gm (14th), 31 sacks (T-16th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 WAS defense: 26.5 PPG allowed (32nd), 122.0 rushing yds/gm (25th), 244.5 passing yds/gm (21st), 31 sacks (T-16th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•Key injuries, ARI: RB Adrian Peterson (neck, IR), WR John Brown (toe, out); WAS: TE Jordan Reed (hamstring/toe, IR), LB Zach Brown (various, out)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams scampers for 80 yards and a score, while Foster adds 50 combined yards. Blaine Gabbert throws for 210 yards and a TD to Ricky Seals-Jones. Samaje Perine bangs out 60 yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 260 yards and TDs to Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson. Washington, 24-17

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (+7.5), 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Is it just me, or are people way too confident in Nick Foles' ability to keep things running smoothly for the Eagles? Sure, he's had success in Philadelphia before ... four years ago, in a completely different offensive system. Take that Chip Kelly-fueled campaign out of the mix, and Foles has a lifetime 29:25 TD:INT and 6.5 YPA in 33 games, not to mention a 12-14 record in 26 starts. The team's Super Bowl aspirations took a major hit when Carson Wentz's ACL gave out, and while the Eagles don't have to worry about losing the NFC East, it's their soft closing schedule more than Foles that could allow them to coast into a first-round bye in the playoffs. As for the Giants, their coaching switch did nothing to improve their performance, and a 30-10 home loss to the hated Cowboys tells the story of a team that doesn't seem to have enough pride or confidence left to rally in what might otherwise be a great opportunity to make life difficult for the equally hated Eagles.

The Skinny:
•2017 PHI offense: 31.1 PPG (1st), 143.0 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 261.1 passing yds/gm (12th), 30 sacks allowed (T-14th), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 NYG offense: 15.3 PPG (31st), 90.1 rushing yds/gm (28th), 219.3 passing yds/gm (23rd), 29 sacks allowed (T-11th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 PHI defense: 19.2 PPG allowed (T-5th), 71.2 rushing yds/gm (1st), 240.8 passing yds/gm (16th), 35 sacks (T-9th), 24 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 NYG defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (27th), 130.0 rushing yds/gm (31st), 274.9 passing yds/gm (31st), 21 sacks (T-30th), 14 turnovers (T-25th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 PHI, average score PHI 24-NYG 21, average margin of victory 12 points. The last four games have all been decided by five points or less.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: PHI, fifth against WR1s (minus 23.1 percent DVOA), second against WR2s (minus 40.2 percent DVOA); NYG, 31st against WR2s (plus 43.7 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jay Ajayi has his first 100-yard game with PHI, adding a touchdown, while LeGarrette Blount also scores. Foles throws for 250 yards and a TD to Zach Ertz. Wayne Gallman leads the NYG backfield with 40 yards. Eli Manning throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Evan Engram. Eagles, 24-13

N.Y. Jets (+16) at New Orleans, 47.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Speaking of teams that just lost their starting QB, the drop-off from Josh McCown to Bryce Petty (or, Namath forbid, Christian Hackenberg) would seem to be a lot steeper than the one from Wentz to Foles, which leaves the Jets facing a closing schedule primed to keep them stuck at five wins and a spot in the draft that gives them a golden opportunity to screw up yet again and pass on Baker Mayfield. The Saints, still in a dogfight with the Panthers and Falcons for the NFC South title and playoff seeding, have no incentive to take their foot off the gas in this one. With Alvin Kamara cleared from his concussion, their backfield could have another historic day in what has been a historic season.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYJ offense: 20.5 PPG (20th), 103.2 rushing yds/gm (21st), 228.5 passing yds/gm (19th), 39 sacks allowed (T-24th), 19 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 NO offense: 28.5 PPG (3rd), 135.5 rushing yds/gm (4th), 274.5 passing yds/gm (6th), 17 sacks allowed (T-2nd), 13 turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 NYJ defense: 23.9 PPG allowed (21st), 116.9 rushing yds/gm (21st), 241.4 passing yds/gm (17th), 26 sacks (T-22nd), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 NO defense: 20.2 PPG allowed (11th), 114.3 rushing yds/gm (19th), 234.9 passing yds/gm (10th), 34 sacks (T-11th), 18 turnovers (T-12th)
•Drew Brees career stats versus NYJ, five games: 2-3, 61.0 percent completion rate, 236.0 passing yds/gm, 5:7 TD:INT, 7.2 YPA, 75.3 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Bilal Powell collects 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Petty throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Mark Ingram erupts for 160 combined yards and two rushing touchdowns, while Kamara keeps pace with 130 combined yards and two receiving scores. Brees throws for 260 yards and a third TD to Michael Thomas. Saints, 41-7

L.A. Rams (+2) at Seattle, 47.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: The Rams missed a golden opportunity last week to all but sew up the NFC West had they beaten the Eagles at home, but instead they now find themselves in a nearly must-win game in Seattle. A Seahawks win gives them the tiebreaker should the two teams finish the season with identical records and puts them in first place in the division, but a Rams win puts them two games up with two to play. Jared Goff struggled in the initial Week 5 meeting – in fact, it was his only game of the season with multiple interceptions – but the Hawks defense isn't what it once was, or even what it was in October. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is who he's always been, and that's a dude with an 11-3 record at home in December.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAR offense: 30.5 PPG (2nd), 114.7 rushing yds/gm (14th), 263.8 passing yds/gm (10th), 22 sacks allowed (8th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 SEA offense: 24.2 PPG (11th), 105.7 rushing yds/gm (18th), 271.0 passing yds/gm (7th), 30 sacks allowed (T-14th), 15 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 LAR defense: 20.4 PPG allowed (12th), 124.1 rushing yds/gm (27th), 237.7 passing yds/gm (13th), 40 sacks (T-3rd), 22 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 SEA defense: 19.4 PPG allowed (8th), 102.8 rushing yds/gm (8th), 243.5 passing yds/gm (20th), 32 sacks (T-13th), 20 turnovers (T-9th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 SEA, average score SEA 19-LAR 15, average margin of victory nine points. Only two of those 11 games have had a total score above 40 points, and eight have been decided by a single score or less.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: LAR, third against WR2s (minus 28.4 percent DVOA), fourth against other WRs (minus 20.1 percent DVOA); SEA, 30th against WR2s (plus 40.0 percent DVOA), first against RBs (minus 30.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, wind less than 10 mph, 44 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Todd Gurley piles up 110 combined yards and a TD. Goff throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Robert Woods. Mike Davis runs for 70 yards. Wilson throws for 270 yards and three TDs, finding Jimmy Graham, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Seahawks, 24-20

Tennessee (+2) at San Francisco, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: It says something about the AFC playoff race that the team currently in the first wild-card spot is a road underdog against a team with a 3-10 record, but here we are. It's easy to see why, though, when you look at the recent play of their respective QBs. Marcus Mariota has been mostly bad, posting a 4:9 TD:INT and 6.8 YPA over the last five games, while Jimmy Garoppolo has a 9.0 YPA (albeit with a 1:2 TD:INT) in his two starts. The Titans' running game hasn't been able to take the pressure off Mariota the way it was earlier in the year, either, as DeMarco Murray appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. Tennessee is still just one game back of Jacksonville for the AFC South title, but it's easier to imagine it missing the postseason entirely than catching the Jags given how they've been playing.

The Skinny:
•2017 TEN offense: 21.0 PPG (19th), 117.7 rushing yds/gm (10th), 211.1 passing yds/gm (27th), 30 sacks allowed (T-14th), 22 turnovers (T-28th)
•2017 SF offense: 17.5 PPG (27th), 100.8 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 255.4 passing yds/gm (15th), 39 sacks allowed (T-24th), 19 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 TEN defense: 22.6 PPG allowed (T-17th), 90.0 rushing yds/gm (5th), 250.8 passing yds/gm (22nd), 37 sacks (T-5th), 16 turnovers (T-21st)
•2017 SF defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (23rd), 121.3 rushing yds/gm (24th), 242.4 passing yds/gm (18th), 25 sacks (T-25th), 14 turnovers (T-25th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: TEN, 32nd against WR2s (plus 44.7 percent DVOA); SF, 25th against WR2s (plus 24.5 percent DVOA), fourth against TEs (minus 25.2 percent DVOA), 30th against RBs (plus 23.9 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Derrick Henry leads the TEN backfield with 80 yards and a TD, while Murray adds 50 combined yards. Mariota throws for 210 yards and runs in a touchdown. Carlos Hyde racks up 110 combined yards and a score. Jimmy G throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to George Kittle and Trent Taylor. 49ers, 27-20

New England at Pittsburgh (+3), 53.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: Apparently, we all should have paid more attention when Tom Brady got into it with Josh McDaniels on the Patriots' sideline two weeks ago. Their flop in Miami was in equal parts due to dysfunction on offense and defense, but Brady's now had two poor games in a row, and their swoon comes just in time to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a game that will probably decide home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Pats do get Rob Gronkowski back from his one-game suspension, though, which can only help. The Steelers are now the hottest team in the NFL, winning eight consecutive even if the last few have been way closer than they probably should have been and the loss of Ryan Shazier has caused some disruption in their defense. Bill Belichick's reputation for taking the opponent's best weapon away will be put to the test, as Le'Veon Bell has averaged 146.1 YFS per game during that winning streak, while finding the end zone six times.

The Skinny:
•2017 NE offense: 28.3 PPG (4th), 113.2 rushing yds/gm (15th), 300.2 passing yds/gm (1st), 29 sacks allowed (T-11th), 10 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 PIT offense: 24.6 PPG (8th), 99.7 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 291.4 passing yds/gm (2nd), 19 sacks allowed (4th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 NE defense: 19.2 PPG allowed (5th), 120.7 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 271.2 passing yds/gm (30th), 30 sacks (T-20th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•2017 PIT defense: 19.3 PPG allowed (7th), 102.9 rushing yds/gm (9th), 223.5 passing yds/gm (5th), 41 sacks (2nd), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•Brady career stats versus PIT, nine games: 7-2, 314.0 passing yds/gm, 69.6 percent completion rate, 24:3 TD:INT, 8.3 YPA, 114.2 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Dion Lewis produces 80 combined yards and a TD, while Rex Burkhead adds 80 combined yards of his own. Brady throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. Bell responds with 130 combined yards and a score. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 340 yards and two touchdowns to Antonio Brown, but his fourth-quarter comeback attempt falls short. Patriots, 34-30

Dallas at Oakland (+3), 46.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Wentz's injury came too late to give the Cowboys any hope of winning their division, but they do still have an incredibly narrow path to a wild-card spot that requires teams like the Falcons and Seahawks to win no more than one of their remaining games while Dallas wins out. Good luck with that. At least Dak Prescott has finally seemed to figure out how to use Dez Bryant effectively again, as the receiver has scored in consecutive games and put together his best two-game yardage total since Weeks 4-5. The Raiders are just one game back in the AFC West, but last week's loss to the Chiefs put a big dent in their playoff chances. Derek Carr's erratic campaign also continued – over four games since Oakland's bye, he's posted YPAs of 4.8, 10.5, 8.0 and 5.1, which puts his ability to take advantage of what would seem to be a soft matchup against a young Cowboys secondary in some doubt.

The Skinny:
•2017 DAL offense: 24.3 PPG (10th), 137.5 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 211.8 passing yds/gm (26th), 25 sacks allowed (10th), 16 turnovers (T-9th)
•2017 OAK offense: 20.3 PPG (T-21st), 91.5 rushing yds/gm (T-26th), 246.7 passing yds/gm (17th), 21 sacks allowed (7th), 20 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 DAL defense: 22.6 PPG allowed (T-17th), 107.4 rushing yds/gm (11th), 254.5 passing yds/gm (24th), 32 sacks (T-13th), 18 turnovers (T-12th)
•2017 OAK defense: 23.4 PPG allowed (20th), 109.5 rushing yds/gm (16th), 252.6 passing yds/gm (23rd), 26 sacks (T-22nd), 10 turnovers (32nd)
•Key injuries, DAL: LB Sean Lee (hamstring, questionable), DE David Irving ( concussion, out), CB Orlando Scandrick (back, out); OAK, WR Amari Cooper (ankle, out), CB David Amerson (foot, doubtful)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Alfred Morris runs for 80 yards and a TD, while Rod Smith adds 70 combined yards and a score. Prescott throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Bryant and Cole Beasley. Marshawn Lynch beasts out for a season-high 120 yards and a score. Carr throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, finding Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and Jalen Richard. Raiders, 34-31

Chicago (+5.5) at Detroit, 44.0 o/u – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Bears ended a five-game slide last week by letting Jordan Howard run wild and humiliating the Bengals on their home turf, giving them a smidge of momentum as they prepare for a chance to crush a division rival's playoff hopes. Not that the Lions really have a plausible shot. At 7-6 they're behind the Falcons/Panthers/Seahawks trio, and even if they keep winning they have a Week 17 home date with Aaron Rodgers, and we all know how that story usually ends. Detroit has found some semblance of a running game with Theo Riddick, at least in the red zone, but his 2.6 YPC the last two games isn't going to wipe any memories of Billy Sims or Barry Sanders.

The Skinny:
•2017 CHI offense: 17.2 PPG (29th), 124.5 rushing yds/gm (7th), 184.6 passing yds/gm (31st), 31 sacks allowed (19th), 19 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 DET offense: 26.0 PPG (5th), 76.3 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 285.2 passing yds/gm (3rd), 39 sacks allowed (T-24th), 20 turnovers (T-23rd)
•2017 CHI defense: 21.1 PPG allowed (14th), 108.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 234.2 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 35 sacks (T-9th), 18 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 DET defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (28th), 116.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 259.6 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 26 sacks (T-22nd), 24 turnovers (T-3rd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: DET 8-3, average score DET 24-CHI 21, average margin of victory five points. DET has won eight of the last nine, but only one of the 11 games during the period was decided by more than one score.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: CHI, eighth against WR2s (minus 20.0 percent DVOA), 30th against other WRs (plus 32.7 percent DVOA); DET, fourth against WR1s (minus 25.4 percent DVOA), 30th against TEs (plus 20.3 percent DVOA), fifth against RBs (minus 20.2 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Howard pounds out 110 yards and a score. Mitchell Trubisky throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Adam Shaheen. Tion Green, not Riddick or Ameer Abdullah, leads the DET backfield with 60 yards. Matthew Stafford throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Marvin Jones twice and Golden Tate (who tops 100 yards) once. Lions, 27-20

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (+1), 46.0 o/u – Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The game could well decide the winner of the AFC West. The Chargers and Chiefs are tied at 7-6, which is ridiculous when you consider they were 0-4 and 4-0, respectively, after the first month of the season. Kansas City already won the first meeting, so another victory would give it the tiebreaker edge in addition to being a game up with two to play. The Chiefs also seemed to emphatically snap out of their funk last week against the Raiders, getting Kareem Hunt going on the ground and stifling Derek Carr. The Bolts are a very different team than the one that got trounced in Week 3, though. The Philip Rivers-Keenan Allen connection has been all but unstoppable lately, giving their elite defense all the cushion it needs, and over the last four games – all Chargers victories – they've been winning by an average score of about 33-13.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAC offense: 22.9 PPG (15th), 99.5 rushing yds/gm (24th), 280.5 passing yds/gm (4th), 15 sacks allowed (1st), 11 turnovers (3rd)
•2017 KC offense: 25.3 PPG (T-6th), 116.6 rushing yds/gm (12th), 269.8 passing yds/gm (8th), 33 sacks allowed (T-20th), nine turnovers (1st)
•2017 LAC defense: 17.3 PPG allowed (2nd), 124.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 217.2 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 37 sacks (T-5th), 22 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 KC defense: 22.2 PPG allowed (15th), 124.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 258.8 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 24 sacks (27th), 17 turnovers (T-15th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 KC, with KC winning seven straight. Average score KC 25-LAC 21, average margin of victory 11 points.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: LAC, sixth against WR1s (minus 21.1 percent DVOA), third against other WRs (minus 20.6 percent DVOA), fourth against RBs (minus 21.6 percent DVOA); KC, 29th against WR1s (plus 26.9 percent DVOA), second against RBs (minus 30.5 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, 13 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon picks up 90 yards and a TD. Rivers throws for 330 yards and touchdowns to Allen (who goes for more than 100 yards for the fifth straight game) and Mike Williams. Hunt puts together 100 combined yards. Alex Smith throws for 230 yards and two TDs, both to Travis Kelce. Chargers, 30-20

Denver at Indianapolis (+2.5), 40.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Peyton Bowl isn't what it used to be. Both the Broncos and Colts are at the bottom of their respective divisions and are just playing for draft position, which in Denver's case means the chance to grab whichever QBs the Browns don't take at No. 1. In fact, Indy is the proud (?) possessor of the longest active non-Cleveland losing streak in the league at four games. That could very well end here, though, as the Broncos have yet to win a game away from Sports Authority We Paid Good Money For The Naming Rights I Can't Figure Out How We Went Bankrupt Stadium. It might help if Emmanuel Sanders could get healthy and back to form. The normally reliable receiver hasn't topped 16 yards in a game in the last month, and no that's not a typo where the digits should be reversed. Trevor Siemian isn't that great at the best of times, but having a target tree that's essentially just a stick doesn't help.

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 17.6 PPG (26th), 105.5 rushing yds/gm (19th), 227.7 passing yds/gm (20th), 41 sacks allowed (T-27th), 27 turnovers (31st)
•2017 IND offense: 16.3 PPG (30th), 104.0 rushing yds/gm (20th), 210.7 passing yds/gm (28th), 52 sacks allowed (32nd), 15 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 DEN defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (24th), 89.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-3rd), 203.4 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 30 sacks (T-19th), 13 turnovers (28th)
•2017 IND defense: 26.4 PPG allowed (31st), 117.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 268.3 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 20 sacks (31st), 18 turnovers (T-11th)
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DEN, second against WR1s (minus 38.9 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (plus 38.9 percent DVOA); IND, 24th against WR2s (plus 24.1 percent DVOA), 32nd against RBs (plus 36.1 percent DVOA)
•Key injuries, DEN: S Justin Simmons (ankle, IR); IND: WR Donte Moncrief (ankle, out), CB Rashaan Melvin (hand, out), CB Nate Hairston (concussion, out)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: C.J. Anderson erupts for 100 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Siemian throws for 220 yards and a second score to Demaryius Thomas. Frank Gore grinds out 50 yards. Jacoby Brissett throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Jack Doyle, but an Antonio Morrison fumble return for a touchdown and a Chester Rogers punt return to the house prove to be the difference. Colts, 21-17

Last week's record: 6-10, 5-10-1 ATS, 6-10 o/u o/u
2017 regular-season record: 128-80, 91-108-9 ATS, 95-109-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS