NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down the Divisional Playoffs

Stat of the Week: Only 13 players rushed for 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. The last time there were fewer 1,000-yard rushers was 1994 (10) ... when we had only 28 NFL teams.

Baltimore (+7) at New England, Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST

Baltimore: After losing their first three postseason matchups with Pittsburgh, the Ravens finally defeated their hated rival in the playoffs. By knocking off the Steelers, 30-17, at Heinz Field, John Harbaugh tied Tom Coughlin and Tom Landry for most road wins in playoff history (7), also marking Joe Flacco's seventh postseason road victory (two more than any QB all-time). Flacco, who's won at least one game in all six appearances, improved his record to 10-4 in postseason play -- twice as many wins as any QB since 2008 -- with a 21:8 TD:INT ratio. Only Joe Montana had a longer streak of playoff games with a 100.0 passer rating or better than this Joe's run of five. Flacco has thrown for 571 yards with an 8.8 YPA and 4:0 TD:INT ratio the last two weeks while New England's No. 8 scoring defense (19.6 PPG) ranked 17th against the pass (239.8 YPG). Although Baltimore allowed the second-fewest sacks this year (19), Patriots had 40 sacks (t-13th), and Bill Belichick finally has a sensational secondary he can trust in coverage, allowing him to dial up blitzes regularly. Because Brandon Browner tends to struggle with smaller, shiftier receivers, look for Darrelle Revis to shadow Steve Smith while Browner covers Torrey Smith with safety help from Devin McCourty over the top. T. Smith found the end zone in three straight (and four out of five, six of eight) games while S. Smith has 13 receptions for 191 yards the last two weeks. Justin Forsett failed to top 47 total yards for the third time in four games, rushing 42 times for 103 yards (2.5 YPC) in those three with a 3.0 average or less in each. New England's run defense ranked ninth in both YPC (4.0) and YPG (104.3).

New England: Patriots have won at least one game in nine of 11 postseason appearances under Belichick, including three straight. Unfortunately, this is the one team NE didn't want to face: Pats have lost three home playoff games in Bill Belichick era (and since 1979), two against Baltimore (2009 wild card, 2012 AFC champ). Although he's the winningest QB in postseason history (18), Tom Brady is just 8-8 in his last 16 and 3-3 in six meetings with BAL since 2009. Given the first-round bye (fifth straight) and poor play in final two games, the offense hasn't had any rhythm since early December. Additionally, Brady posted just 6.81 YPA over his final eight games, throwing at least one pick in six (15:7 TD:INT ratio). As is usually the case, Brady must get rid of the ball quickly (one sack or fewer in 11 of 16 games); Ravens were second in NFL with 49 sacks (five last week). Although he posted his second-most receptions (82), yards (1,124) and touchdowns (12), Rob Gronkowski netted a career-low 8.6 YPT (9.0 previous low). One of two unanimous All-Pros (J.J. Watt), he scored in each of his last three games. Julian Edelman had at least seven catches and 10 targets each of his last four games, going for 88 yards or more in three. Brandon LaFell, who posted career highs across the board (74-119-953-7), averaged 5.7 receptions on 8.0 targets over the final three weeks, gaining 66-plus yards each game. Baltimore's dominant front seven masks many deficiencies in the back end (23rd in pass defense, 248.7 YPG), but how long can that depleted secondary hold up? Shane Vereen hasn't topped 50 YFS in five straight, gaining 129 total yards (29.0 per) during that stretch. Although he's rushed for at least 58 yards in four of his last five, LeGarrette Blount has 12 carries or less in four of those as well. Blount averages 4.7 YPC since re-joining NE but Baltimore's fourth-ranked run D allows 3.6 YPC (third). Ravens, eighth in total defense (336.9 YPG) and sixth in scoring (18.9 PPG), allowed less than 4.0 YPC for the 19th consecutive season, longest streak in NFL history and every year of franchise existence (1996-2014).

Predictions:Joe Flacco passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Torrey Smith gets behind Brandon Browner once for six during a 92-yard day; Owen Daniels catches the other TD. Darrelle Revis shuts down Steve Smith and is the first to pick off Flacco in his last six postseason games. Tom Brady throws for 312 yards and three scores; Rob Gronkowski (103 yards) hauls in two, Brandon LaFell (71 yards) the other. Ravens' front seven does a masterful job pressuring Brady and stifling the run, recording four sacks (two by Terrell Suggs) while surrendering merely 69 rushing yards. Baltimore covers, but Patriots advance to fourth straight conference championship game. New England, 24-21.

Carolina (+11) at Seattle, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Carolina: Panthers are only the sixth team in postseason history to be double-digit underdogs in a game with an O/U of 40 or less. After Carolina's 27-16 victory over Arizona, its fifth straight, sub-.500 teams are now 2-0 on wild-card Weekend (2010 Seahawks). The defense is carrying them, surrendering just 78 total yards last week (fewest in playoff history) and 11.8 PPG during this five-game winning streak. Although they've lost to Seattle each of the last three seasons (all in Carolina), every game was decided by five points or less with an average score of 13.7-9.3. Cam Newton has rushed for 353 more yards on third down than any QB since 2011 (1,023), but he was second in overthrows this season (78, one shy of Colin Kaepernick) despite playing just 14 games. The Seahawks, No. 1 in scoring (15.9 PPG) and pass (185.6 YPG) defense, have had his number: 54.1 percent for 145.7 YPG and 5.9 YPA in those three meetings. Worse, he scored only one touchdown with three turnovers while adding little on the ground (34.7 YPG). Kelvin Benjamin has a paltry 10 catches for 89 yards on 24 targets (3.7 YPT) his last three games. With his length negated, Benjamin doesn't have a chance against Richard Sherman; Newton would be wise to avoid throwing his way altogether. Greg Olsen ranked second in yards (1,008) and third in receptions (84) at his position but has a meager six catches for 85 yards the last three weeks. However, covering tight ends might be the Seahawks' lone weakness as only two teams gave up more TE touchdowns (11), though they've allowed only one since Week 9. Jonathan Stewart eclipsed the century mark for the third time in five games, giving him 609 yards on 115 carries (5.3 YPC) the last six weeks. Although Seattle ranked third in YPG (85.1) and second in YPC (3.4) allowed, rushing is the Panthers' only chance. Expect a heavy dose of zone-read from Carolina to open up running lanes for Stewart and get Super Cam to stop throwing off his back foot.

Seattle: The Seahawks won nine of their last 10 to clinch the conference's top seed for the second straight year. Not only are they giving up a miniscule 6.5 PPG and 202.2 YPG over this six-game winning streak, the Hawks haven't surrendered a fourth-quarter point since Week 11 in Kansas City. Seattle, 24-2 at home since 2012 (including playoffs), actually allowed 104 fewer yards than they did a season ago. Their ninth-ranked offense, up from No. 18 in 2013, converts an NFL-high 75 percent of third downs when needing three yards or less. Marshawn Lynch averaged 116 total yards (91.6 rushing) and 4.9 YPC over the final nine games, scoring 11 times, but managed only 70.0 YFS against Carolina since 2012. Seattle was tops in the NFL in rushing yards (172.6), touchdowns (20) and YPC (5.3) while Carolina's 16th-ranked run defense (112.0 YPG) allowed 14 touchdowns (t-21st) and 4.5 YPC (27th). Russell Wilson, 4-1 in postseason play (2-0 at home), scored at least 26 TD for the third straight season while throwing fewer INT every year (10-9-7). As good as the Seahawks were at home (7-1), their signal-caller wasn't; six of his seven picks came at Century Link, where he threw only six touchdowns (two in last six games). Also, the Panthers have the personnel and scheme to contain Wilson, holding him to 54 yards rushing (3.4 YPC) in the three meetings. With linebackers with the range of Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly, the Panthers can effectively spy Russell Wilson and limit his damage on the ground. This forces him to beat Carolina's cover-3 deep zone with his arm, which he has done three times (71.1 percent, 8.2 YPA, 246.7 YPG). However, Wilson posted just a 3:3 TD:INT ratio in those contests, and the Panthers' 11th-rated pass defense (227.8 YPG) allows just 7.0 YPA (12th).

Predictions:Cam Newton accomplishes nothing with his arm, throwing two picks during a dreadful 143-yard showing. Completely overmatched, Kelvin Benjamin is shut out by Richard Sherman, failing to convert any of his six targets. Greg Olsen leads CAR with 67 yards receiving. Unable to pass, the Panthers hand off to Jonathan Stewart 22 times, grinding out 84 yards and their only TD. Russell Wilson accounts for 275 total yards (43 rushing) and a score. Marshawn Lynch sets the tone and seals the game, hammering his way to 115 yards and a touch. Much closer than the 2005 NFC championship (SEA, 34-14) but Seahawks take care of Carolina, ending their season in the divisional round for the second straight year (only back-to-back playoff berths in franchise history). Seattle, 20-10.

Dallas (+6.5) at Green Bay, Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST

Dallas: The Cowboys outscored Detroit 24-6 after the first quarter, earning just their second postseason victory in 18 years and fifth straight overall. This is the first ever playoff meeting between unbeaten home (Green Bay) and road (Dallas) teams. It's Dallas' first postseason visit to Lambeau Field since the iconic Ice Bowl loss in 1967. Tony Romo wasn't particularly sharp early but used his 28th game-winning drive since 2008 -- tied with Eli Manning for most in NFL during that span -- to win just his second career playoff game. Romo actually posted a better Total QBR on the road (95.9) than Aaron Rodgers did at home (91.1) and has a 71.8 completion percentage, 14:1 TD:INT ratio, and 9.0 YPA (7.9 or better in each) the past five games. Packers ranked ninth in sacks (41) and the degree to which Detroit's defensive line outplayed Dallas' O-line last week was staggering, allowing six sacks and struggling to run the ball. Romo is one of the best at handling pressure, averaging 8.58 YPA against the blitz, but GB ranked no worse than 11th in yards (226.4, 10th), YPA (6.9, 11th) and completion percentage (59.0, seventh). Although Dez Bryant played poorly last week, regularly getting beat in press man and even falling several times, he must be more involved in the offense. Bryant averaged 4.7 targets the last three weeks (including three against DET) and hasn't been targeted 10 times in game since Week 9. Sam Shields and Tramon Williams are both 5-foot-11 or shorter and 191 or less, completely overmatched physically against the first-team All-Pro, especially at the goal line. The last four games, DeMarco Murray averaged 3.4 YPC and 78.5 YPG, failing to reach 4.0 YPC or 100 yards three times. Dallas should be able to run the ball, though, and needs to to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, as GB ranks 23rd in YPG (119.9) and 20th in YPC (4.3).

Green Bay: The Packers, winners of seven of eight, are on their sixth consecutive playoff appearance, tied with NE for longest active streak. However, Green Bay has lost three of its last four in postseason play, two at Lambeau. Outside of his 2010 SB run, Aaron Rodgers is 1-4 in the playoffs, the only victory coming against the 2012 Vikings quarterbacked by the mighty Joe Webb. Fortunately, Rodgers hasn't thrown a pick at home since 12.2.2012, posting a 36:0 TD:INT ratio (25:0 this season), and Dallas ranks 20th or lower in yards (251.9, 26th), completion percentage (66.5, 29th) and YPA (7.5, 20th) allowed. Primary concern with Rodgers' calf injury is not necessarily inhibited mobility, but limited practice time to get in sync with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The pair has a clear advantage over any CB tandem -- Orlando Scandrick and Brandon Carr will be no different -- as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders were the only teammates to combine for more receptions and yards than Nelson/Cobb (189, 2,806). No WR duo scored more (25, at least 12 apiece) but only Seattle allowed fewer WR touchdowns than Dallas (10). The last six weeks, Eddie Lacy carried 117 times for 592 yards (5.1 YPC) and six total TD, rushing for at least 97 yards and 4.7 YPC in five. His ability to keep GB ahead of the chains and convert first downs will be the key to this game, and, oddly enough, he's the one guy nobody talks about. Lacy went for 21-141-1, including a career-long 60-yard run, in his only game against Dallas (eighth in YPG, 103.1; 16th in YPC, 4.2), which gave up more rushing touchdowns than anyone but Atlanta (18).

Predictions: Dallas' offensive line controls the game, limiting Aaron Rodgers' possessions and allowing DeMarco Murray to gain 137 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Tony Romo produces 244 yards and two TD on just 25 attempts. Dez Bryant catches both scores, one on a jump ball at the goal line and another from 38 yards out, in a 128-yard statement performance. Rodgers goes for 312 yards, throwing touchdowns to Randall Cobb (94 yards) and Jordy Nelson (123 yards). Eddie Lacy totes 19 times for 91 yards and a touch. Cowboys jump out in front early and hold off Green Bay who (much like 2011) doesn't respond well off the bye. Dallas, 31-30.

Indianapolis (+7) at Denver, Sunday,4:40 p.m. EST

Indianapolis: Although no team has lost more on wild-card weekend under the current format (6), Indianapolis advanced to the divisional round for the second straight year. The Colts handled Cincinnati, 26-10, winning for the sixth time in seven weeks. Amazingly, the No. 3 offense (406.6 YPG) was the only team without an opening-drive TD all year, getting one last week for the first time since the first round of 2013 playoffs against KC. Andrew Luck passed Kurt Warner for most passing yards (1,438) and Dan Fouts for most attempts (184) in a players' first four postseason games. Impressive, but Indy needs a more balanced attack to beat the NFL's top teams (44 passes, nine rushes through three quarters last week). Luck, the fifth quarterback with three straight 300-yard games in the playoffs, attempted at least 41 passes in all four postseason starts; that one-dimensional approach won't work against Denver, ninth in the league with 41 sacks. Von Miller (14.0 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (10.0) are one of the best pass-rushing duos in football, and the Broncos' ninth-ranked pass defense (225.4 YPG) was No. 1 in YPA allowed (6.0). Luck, 0-2 with a 2:5 TD:INT ratio on the road in the playoffs, completed 61.1 percent for 598 yards (6.6 YPA) with seven total touchdowns (two rushing) in two games against Denver. In four career playoff games, T.Y. Hilton has 31 receptions for 496 yards, eclipsing the century mark three times. However, Hilton totaled seven catches for 68 yards in two games against Denver, while Aqib Talib and Chris Harris form one of the league's top CB tandems. Between those two and first-round pick Bradley Roby at nickel, it's unlikely Donte Moncrief, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks make much of an impact. It's imperative Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener win at the LOS, giving Luck targets underneath and up the seams. Dan Herron had 131 total yards and a TD on 20 touches last week after averaging 62.3 YFS on 12.0 touches the previous four, not scoring in any. However, he's fumbled four times (lost three) in seven games, and Denver's run defense allowed 79.8 YPG (second) and 3.7 YPC (fourth).

Denver: Despite stumbling down the stretch, particularly offensively, the Broncos took the AFC West crown for the fourth straight season, earning a first-round bye in each of the last three. Denver and Indy played the last two years with the home team winning both. Peyton Manning completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 327.5 yards (7.7 YPA) and 6:1 TD:INT ratio in the two meetings. However, Manning threw multiple picks in five of his last nine games (12 total) with a 3:6 TD:INT ratio over the final four weeks. Indianapolis is in the top half of league in completion percentage (58.9, sixth), yards (229.3, 12th) and YPA (7.2, 16th). Demaryius Thomas had a career year, posting 100 yards in 10 of his last 13 games. However, Vontae Davis was the second-rated corner this year according to PFF (lowest opposing QB rating, 38.8, second-lowest completion percentage, 43.7, when targeted) and held Thomas to 65.0 YPG on 4.0 catches in the two clashes. Emmanuel Sanders posted career highs across the board (101-1,409-9) but had no more than 73 yards in the final five games. Julius Thomas tied for the lead in touchdowns among tight ends (12) but managed just 66 yards since Week 11. Thomas had a paltry 489 yards this season, only reaching 40 yards four times and 70 once. However, he scored four times in two games against Indy, including a career night (7-104-3) in Week 1. C.J. Anderson led the NFL in rushing yards (648) and touchdowns (8) over the last six weeks while the Colts' run defense ranks 23rd in YPC (4.3), 18th in YPG (113.4) and t-21st in rushing TD (14) allowed. Watch out for Ronnie Hillman, whose game-breaking speed and big-play ability add another dimension to Denver's offense.

Predictions:Andrew Luck throws for 301 yards and two scores, adding another 38 yards and TD on the ground. PFF's No.1 corner Chris Harris contains T.Y. Hilton, allowing only 69 yards on 12 targets. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen combine for 11-119-2 as Donte Moncrief, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks struggle with Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby. Denver stymies the Colts running game, allowing only 54 yards on the ground. After a month-long slumber, the Broncos offense comes alive with Peyton Manning shredding his former club for 342 yards and four touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders (102 yards), Demaryius Thomas (81), Julius Thomas (67) and Wes Welker (46) find the end zone. C.J. Anderson rushes for 81 yards and a touch on 20 carries. Manning, the all-time leader in playoff losses (12), evens his postseason record and ensures a fourth AFC championship-showdown with Tom Brady. Denver, 35-27.