This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Green Bay (+4.5) at Atlanta, 61 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Can we really be surprised by anything Aaron Rodgers does at this point? Last week's ridiculous sandlot completion to Jared Cook that set up the Packers' game-winning field goal is just one more page in the 2016 chapter of Rodgers' stellar career. If anything's going to slow down his march to another Super Bowl, though, it might be the health of his receiving corps. Jordy Nelson missed the win over the Cowboys with a rib injury, but was was able to participate a little in practice Thursday. That's more than can be said for Davante Adams (ankle), who hasn't practiced at all this week, though Green Bay is optimistic he'll be in the lineup. Late-season sensation Geronimo Allison (hamstring) also isn't practicing. The Pack has great depth at WR – even if none play, Rodgers will still have Randall Cobb and last season's playoff wunderkind Jeff Janis to target, plus Cook. Whoever's on the field should have a field day against the Falcons' secondary. The team's pass defense got a bit better down the stretch, but it was still one of just five teams in 2016 to allow more than 30 TD passes in the regular season, and Rodgers lit it up for four scores in Week 8's 33-32 loss. ... The question isn't so much whether Rodgers will put points on the board, it's whether he'll put enough points on the board. Atlanta was the
Green Bay (+4.5) at Atlanta, 61 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Can we really be surprised by anything Aaron Rodgers does at this point? Last week's ridiculous sandlot completion to Jared Cook that set up the Packers' game-winning field goal is just one more page in the 2016 chapter of Rodgers' stellar career. If anything's going to slow down his march to another Super Bowl, though, it might be the health of his receiving corps. Jordy Nelson missed the win over the Cowboys with a rib injury, but was was able to participate a little in practice Thursday. That's more than can be said for Davante Adams (ankle), who hasn't practiced at all this week, though Green Bay is optimistic he'll be in the lineup. Late-season sensation Geronimo Allison (hamstring) also isn't practicing. The Pack has great depth at WR – even if none play, Rodgers will still have Randall Cobb and last season's playoff wunderkind Jeff Janis to target, plus Cook. Whoever's on the field should have a field day against the Falcons' secondary. The team's pass defense got a bit better down the stretch, but it was still one of just five teams in 2016 to allow more than 30 TD passes in the regular season, and Rodgers lit it up for four scores in Week 8's 33-32 loss. ... The question isn't so much whether Rodgers will put points on the board, it's whether he'll put enough points on the board. Atlanta was the only team in the regular season to average more than 30 points a game (4.5 points clear of second-place New Orleans at 33.8), and it certainly didn't slow down last week when it torched the Seahawks. While Matt Ryan deserves the MVP award he should be getting, the real engine of the Falcons' offense has been its RBs. Tevin Coleman just missed joining Devonta Freeman in gaining 1,000 yards from scrimmage during the regular season, and both backs scored double-digit TDs – 13 for Freeman, 11 for Coleman. The Packers' run defense got off to a great start in 2016, but was never the same after getting broken down by Ezekiel Elliott in Week 6, and while it did hold Freeman to 58 combined yards in that Week 8 tilt, he scored twice (Coleman was injured). With both Atlanta backs healthy this time, the Green Bay front seven will have its work cut out for it. ... Julio Jones (toe) and Taylor Gabriel (foot) are both questionable, but should play for Atlanta. The Falcons' biggest injury on defense is to Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder), but his best days are behind him anyway. James Starks (concussion) is still questionable for the Pack, as is Morgan Burnett (quad) after he left last week's game early. They could get cornerback Quinten Rollins (concussion) back, though, and Clay Matthews is healthy after missing the Week 8 loss.
Predictions: Ty Montgomery picks up 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Rodgers throws for 310 yards and two more scores, hitting Cook and Janis while Cobb pulls in 120 yards. Freeman gains 70 combined yards and a TD, and Coleman adds 60 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 340 yards and touchdowns to Jones (who hauls in 140 yards) and Mohamed Sanu. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has the last laugh with an INT return to the house.Packers, 37-34
Pittsburgh (+6) at New England, 51 o/u – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
Comments: I'm not sure what was weirder last week – the Steelers taking out the Chiefs, in Kansas City, when Andy Reid has an extra week to prepare, or the fact that they did it without Ben Roethlisberger throwing a single TD. The miserable conditions in Arrowhead caused Pittsburgh to rely on Le'Veon Bell and its defense (and a record six Chris Boswell field goals) to steal the win, but the Steelers will need to get more from Big Ben to complete their cinderella-ish run to the Super Bowl against a New England rush defense that allowed a league-low six TDs in 2016 and finished tied for third in rushing yards allowed per game (88.6). It won't be easy. The Patriots also finished the regular season eighth in QB rating against (84.4) and tied for eighth in TD passes allowed (21), and their defense is close to 100 percent healthy heading into this one, with Dont'a Hightower (shoulder) and Jabaal Sheard (knee) both questionable but expected to play. ... Per usual, Bill Belichick has flooded his injury report with names, but Martellus Bennett (knee), Chris Hogan (thigh) and Danny Amendola (ankle) are expected to suit up. Malcolm Mitchell (knee) is also probably healthy enough to see action, as he's begun practicing again, but he could be squeezed off the active roster due to sheer numbers. The Steelers' pass defense was right there with the Patriots' during the regular season, and although it ranked 14th in QB rating against (87.3), its YPA allowed and TD:INT were similar to New England's. The Steelers also held Tom Brady relatively in check in Week 7's meeting, as he threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns. Of course, in committing to keep Brady from beating them, they allowed LeGarrette Blount to bash out 127 yards and two TDs in a 27-16 Patriots' win. ... The weather shouldn't be an issue in Foxboro on Sunday, though some rain is expected in the area Monday and the front could arrive sooner than anticipated. Ladarius Green's recovery from a concussion got complicated by illness this week, and he remains iffy. James Harrison (shoulder/triceps) is also questionable, but should play.
Predictions: Bell doesn't slow down much, piling up 130 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and a second score to Antonio Brown. Blount leads the Pats' backfield with 80 yards and a TD, with Dion Lewis adding 70 combined yards. Brady throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Julian Edelman and Matthew Lengel. Patriots, 27-17
Last week's record: 2-2, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 o/u
2016 regular season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2016 postseason record: 5-3, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 o/u
