NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down the Conference Championships

Stat of the Week I: Since 1978, only six road underdogs of seven points or more have won outright in the conference championships (1990 Giants, 1998 Falcons, 1999 Titans, 2001 Patriots, 2007 Giants, 2012 Ravens); four won the Super Bowl.

Stat of the Week II: In the last 15 seasons, underdogs are 16-13-1 ATS in the conference title round with 11 winning outright; but the last time both dogs won on Championship Sunday was 2000, when Baltimore (+6.5) knocked off Oakland and NYG (+1) beat Minnesota.

Green Bay (+7.5) at Seattle, Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST

Green Bay: Thanks to a 26-21 victory over Dallas and Mike McCarthy's first successful challenge all year, the Packers advanced to their first NFC championship since 2010 (won SB XLV). If not for a stunning Week 15 loss in Buffalo, their lone blemish since Week 9, this game would be played at Lambeau Field. The Pack scored 150 more points at home this year (39.75 PPG, 8-0 record) than on the road (21.0, 4-4), primarily why they opened as bigger underdogs this week than any other game in the Aaron Rodgers era. Although Rodgers hasn't thrown a pick at home since December 2012, a span of 512 attempts and 39 touchdowns, he has a 15:7 TD:INT ratio in his last nine road games. His completion percentage and Total QBR dropped nearly three and 23 points, respectively (67.1-64.3, 93-70), while averaging 2.42 fewer YPA (9.73-7.31) away from home this season. ...

In addition, Green Bay and its franchise quarterback have struggled mightily with Seattle and the team most closely resembling them, San Francisco, in recent years (0-6 versus SEA/SF since 2012). In the two losses to the Seahawks, both played at Century Link, the Packers were outscored by an average of 25-14. Aaron Rodgers managed just 412 yards, 5.7 YPA and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio while taking 11 sacks in the two games combined; not ideal circumstances for limited mobility from the calf injury. Furthermore, Seattle surrenders just 15.2 PPG since 2012 (No. 1 scoring defense all three seasons) and 8.0 PPG over their last seven games. The Seahawks have actually allowed one fewer point in 2013 and 2014 combined than Green Bay scored this year alone (485, 30.4 PPG, best in NFL). ...

Although Davante Adams and Randall Cobb became the third pair of Packers teammates with 100-plus receiving yards in the same playoff game, it's doubtful this week marks the fourth occurrence; in those two meetings with Seattle, Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for just 159 yards and one TD on 18 receptions (39.8 YPG apiece). When these teams met in the season opener, McCarthy effectively threw third-receiver Jarrett Boykin (now Adams) to the wolves by lining him up exclusively on the right side across from Richard Sherman. With Cobb working out of the slot and Nelson against Byron Maxwell throughout, Aaron Rodgers didn't throw in Sherman's direction all night. The reasons we shouldn't expect a repeat of that gameplan are threefold: a) it didn't work, b) eliminating half the field is counterproductive, especially when you have the best QB in the game and c) the emergence of Adams affords GB the luxury of a trustworthy, playmaking WR3. If Maxwell (illness) can't go again, look for Rodgers to pick on Tharold Simon, who allowed 10-100-2 on 10 targets last week. ...

Eddie Lacy gained at least 100 YFS for a franchise-record 10th consecutive game against DAL but totaled just 45 yards in Seattle Week 1. Lacy is the key to this game as Seattle feasts on opposing quarterbacks when there is no threat of (or when teams abandon) the run. Despite having one of the best and most athletic LB corps in football, the Seahawks are weaker now against the run than season-long rankings (third in YPG, 81.3; second in YPC, 3.4) indicate given the absence of their two best DT, Brandon Mebane and Jordan Hill (IR).

Seattle: The Seahawks beat Carolina, 31-17, in the divisional round, becoming the first defending champs to win a playoff game since the 2005 Patriots. They created three Panthers turnovers (and could've easily had six), but no team committed fewer turnovers than Green Bay this season, No. 1 in TO differential at plus-14. Seattle, winners of eight in a row at home in postseason play, looks to become the first team to repeat as NFC champions since the 1996-1997 Packers. During their current seven-game winning streak, the Seahawks have run away with games late, outscoring opponents 102-20 in the second half and 62-7 in the fourth quarter. ...

On top of containing Marshawn Lynch, paramount to Green Bay's success defensively will be Clay Matthews' and Julius Peppers' ability to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and limit his damage on the ground. Surely the Packers' 23rd-ranked run defense (119.9 YPG; 20th in YPC, 4.3) will regularly bring SS Morgan Burnett down into the box to stop Lynch, who rushed 45 times for 208 yards and two TD his last two games against them. After eclipsing the century mark in four of his first six postseason games (89-512-5 in those four), Beast Mode averaged just 49.0 yards on 14.5 carries (3.4 YPC) his last two. If Lynch, the tone-setter for Seattle, gets going early and/or Wilson routinely breaks outside contain, Green Bay can schedule their flight home at halftime. ...

Russell Wilson posted the fifth-highest postseason passer rating in history last week (149.2), improving to 5-1 in the playoffs and 25-2 at home (highest win percentage since 1950) during his career. Wilson was absolutely perfect on third down Saturday, going 8-of-8 for 199 yards and three touchdowns (7 first downs). Since entering the NFL, his TD:INT ratio in the red zone is 52:2 (plus 10 rushing scores) while opponents have a 100-percent RZ touchdown rate against Green Bay the last three games. In his only two meetings with the Pack, Wilson completed just 59.2 percent of his passes for 160.5 YPG and 6.6 YPA while adding little on the ground (23.5 YPG). However, he posted a 4:0 TD:INT ratio with only two sacks and is 9-0 against SB-Champion quarterbacks (beat Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and Drew Brees twice; Tom Brady once). ...

Green Bay's 10th-rated pass defense (11th in YPA, 6.9; seventh in completion percentage, 59.0), particularly the cornerback duo of Sam Shields/Tramon Williams, presents a difficult matchup for the Seahawks' receivers. With the loss of rookie speedster Paul Richardson (torn ACL last week), Ricardo Lockette is the only SEA wideout capable of stretching the field. Jermaine Kearse is coming off a career day (129 yards) and found the end zone in each of his last three playoff games but remains highly inconsistent. Doug Baldwin, 60.0 YPG the past two postseasons, is reliable but nothing more. Emerging second-year TE Luke Willson, averaging 79.7 yards, 26.6 YPC and one TD per game over his last three, winning one-on-one situations will be crucial to the success of Seattle's passing game; Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is terrific in coverage against tight ends and slot receivers but susceptible to the big play due to his aggressive nature.

Predictions:Aaron Rodgers passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns but is intercepted by Earl Thomas in the red area. Jordy Nelson (103 yards) beats up on Byron Maxwell while Randall Cobb (98 yards) works over Jeremy Lane in the slot; both reach the painted area. Eddie Lacy churns out 81 hard-earned yards and a score but, stripped by Bobby Wagner, loses a costly fumble. Russell Wilson pulls his standard Houdini act, accounting for 262 yards and two TD (8-59-1 rushing). Marshawn Lynch totes 24 times for 107 yards and a touch. Green Bay covers, but turnovers are the difference as the Seahawks advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl. Seattle, 27-24.

Indianapolis (+7) at New England, Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST

Indianapolis: The Colts knocked off the Broncos 24-13 in Denver for their first road playoff win since 2006. Indy is 7-1 over its last eight games and playing for the franchise's first AFC title in five years (2009). Unfortunately for Colts fans, the Patriots have owned them recently; New England won all three meetings by at least three touchdowns and an average score of 48-22 (aggregate 144-66). ...

Andrew Luck, 15-12 away from Lucas Oil Stadium during his career (6-3 this year), surpassed Kurt Warner's record (1,644) for most passing yards through a quarterback's first five postseason starts (1,703, 340.6 YPG). However, turnovers continue to plague him both in the playoffs (9:10 TD:INT ratio) and against the Patriots (6:8, 4:7 at Foxborough). Luck averaged 322.7 YPG in three games versus NE but completed just 53.3 percent of his passes for a ho-hum 7.4 YPA. The Pats' No. 17 ranking against the pass (239.8 YPG) is deceptive as teams are usually in catch-up mode; they're in the top third in passer rating (84.0), YPA (7.2) and interceptions (16). Luck took only 29 sacks this season (eighth fewest) and five in the three previous encounters with New England, 13th in sacks (40). ...

T.Y. Hilton has 35 catches for 568 yards in five career playoff games, eclipsing the century mark in three, but only scored in one of the five. In three meetings with NE, Hilton has two 100-yard games (13-227-2 total) but was held to three catches and 24 yards on seven targets (3.4 YPT) by Darrelle Revis earlier this season. Brandon Browner and nickel Kyle Arrington should have little trouble with Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief; just not impact players at this stage of their careers. Don't be surprised if Indy goes double-tight early and often, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are the key to Indy's aerial attack this week. SS Patrick Chung is a little stiff in the hips and, although an All-Pro FS, Devin McCourty is overmatched from a size standpoint at 5-foot-10, 195. Fleener has a whopping 13 catches for 218 yards in two games against the Patriots, one of only three teams to give up more than 1,000 yards receiving to tight ends. ...

Dan Herron is averaging just 3.4 YPC in the playoffs (35-119-0) but adds an Ahmad Bradshaw-esque dimension to the passing game. Herron tacked on 18 receptions for 117 yards receiving to bring his YFS total to 236 the last two weeks. Despite his breakout, the Colts are far too one-dimensional to beat the NFL's best; this team is all Luck and nothing else. Indy, 25th in both rush TD (9) and YPC (3.9), hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since 2012. Although their gap control was non-existent against Justin Forsett last week (129 yards), only the Chiefs allowed fewer touchdowns on the ground than the Patriots (6), ninth in both YPC (4.0) and YPG (104.3).

New England: During their 35-31 divisional-round victory over Baltimore, the Pats became the first team to overcome multiple 14-point deficits in a playoff game (14-0, 28-14). That was the largest postseason comeback in franchise history for New England, playing in the AFC Championship for the fourth straight season (1-2). Bill Belichick tied Tom Landry for most playoff wins by a HC all-time (20), but his team has now failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 in the postseason (favored in all). ...

Tom Brady surpassed Joe Montana for most pass TD in the playoffs (46) and tied Curtis Martin's franchise record for postseason rushing touchdowns (5). Brady hasn't lost to the Colts since the "4th-and-2 game" in 2009, going 5-0 with a 68.0 completion percentage and 9:2 TD:INT ratio. In three games against them in the Andrew Luck era, Brady took only two sacks while averaging 262.0 YPG and 8.7 YPA. Indianapolis ranked sixth in completion percentage (58.9) and 12th in passing yards (229.3) allowed but is playing lights-out in the playoffs: Andy Dalton and Peyton Manning combined to go 44-of-81 (53.4 percent) for 366 yards (4.52 YPA) and one touchdown the past two weeks. ...

Rob Gronkowski, the leader in RZ touchdowns since 2010 (41; Jimmy Graham, 40), has scored in each of his last four games. Gronk reached the end zone six times (one rushing) while accumulating 272 yards on 16 catches in his last three games versus Indy, third-worst in the league at defending the TE position. Gronkowski versus LaRon Landry, one of the most physically gifted safeties in football (6-0, 226, 4.35 40), presents maybe the game's most pivotal matchup. Playing bump-and-run throughout, Vontae Davis and Greg Toler did an absolutely masterful job against the Bronco receivers. Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell, solid wideouts in their own right, aren't in the same class as Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders and at a significant disadvantage this week. Danny Amendola, who came on strong down the stretch after doing nothing for nearly two years in New England to that point, needs to win his one-on-one matchups in the slot to give Brady a chain-moving target underneath. ...

The Pats rushed 13 times for a measly 14 yards last week, fewest by any winning team in playoff history. Oddly enough, they destroyed IND on the ground in their two most recent meetings, rushing for a whopping 479 yards and 10 touchdowns (at least 235 and four in each). LeGarrette Blount went for 26-144-4 in last year's victory over Indy in the AFC divisional. Although he's rushed for just 80 yards since, Jonas Gray shredded the Colts for 201 yards and four scores on 37 carries in Week 11. New England rushed for an average of 198.0 yards and 4.0 touchdowns its last three games against Indianapolis, 18th or worse in rushing YPG (113.4, 18th), YPC (4.3, 23rd) and TD (14, t-21st) allowed.

Predictions:Andrew Luck throws for 331 yards and two TD but, true to form, is picked off twice (Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty). T.Y. Hilton doesn't enjoy his stay on Revis Island, held to 49 yards on six receptions. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen combine for 152 yards and both Luck touchdowns. Dan Herron adds 88 YFS, more than half coming as a receiver. A turnover-free Tom Brady passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski hauls in seven passes for 91 yards and a touch; Julian Edelman (73 yards) and Brandon LaFell (65 yards) score the other two. Rotating backs evenly, the Patriots rush for 112 yards and one TD. So the superior team is playing at home and crushed their opponent three straight times? I'll take them, you can have the points. Pats reach their sixth Super Bowl under Bill Belichick. New England, 31-20.