NFL Expert Picks: Week 3 Monday Night Football Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

NFL Expert Picks: Week 3 Monday Night Football Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 3

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) visit the Buffalo Bills (2-0) for Week 3 Monday Night Football. The Jaguars are up against the wall as an 0-3 start could make the playoffs out of reach. The Bills enter at 2-0, but a tough 3 game road stretch looms, with games against the Ravens, Texans, and Jets.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds for Week 3

Jaguars +5.5 (ESPN BET -105) / Bills -5.5  (DraftKings -110)

Jaguars ML +210 (Caesars) / Bills -250 (ESPN BET)

Total OVER 46.5 (Fanduel -110) / UNDER 46.5 (FanDuel -110)

The majority of the bets (76%) and handle (70%) have come in on the Bills, making them a public play. The total reflects "public" money on the UNDER at 67% of total bets, but 61% of the handle. There is a 6% percent difference on the OVER for bets versus handle.  The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, as the Bills have received 89% of the bets, but just 78% on the handle. 

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Jaguars vs. Bills Betting Picks This Week

I went against the public last week with the Falcons, but also took the dog because of the huge trends we saw. Week 3 looks more of the same as I see a very tightly played game, with lower scoring. The Jags come in at 0-2 and desperate, but the Bills have extra rest and a very tough 3 game road stretch on tap. 

I usually never buy 0.5 points, but in this case with the way field goals and underdogs are hitting, laying -120 to get to the key number of 6 is the play. 

I only cover the best bet here, but I would also recommended looking at James Cook over rushing yards, receiving yards, and anytime touchdown. 

Jaguars vs. Bills Best Bet: Jaguars +6.0 (DraftKings -120) or Jaguars +5.5 (DraftKings -110)

Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction

NFL underdogs of at least 5.5 points are now 13-2 against the spread this season, with 9 outright wins (4-0 Week 3). This is parity of the highest kind and there is no reason to buck the trend here.

The Jaguars need to keep the Bills offense off the field, while the Bills want to grind it out as well. I think we see a lot of running in this game much like we did in last Monday's game. In the end, I still think the Bills find a way to win this game at home. It is hard to trust Trevor Lawrence at this point as he has lost 7 starts in a row. 

I have it Bills 20-16. 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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