NFL Expert Picks: Monday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

NFL Expert Picks: Monday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 14

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys (5-7) in an inter-conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Bengals are 3rd in the AFC North with slim playoff chances, while the Cowboys sit 3rd in the NFC East.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds

Bengals -4.5 (ESPNBet -110) / Cowboys +5.5 (BetMGM -110)

Bengals ML (DraftKings Sportsbook -225) / Cowboys ML (BetRivers +200)

Total OVER 49.5 (FanDuel -110) / UNDER 50.0 (BetMGM -110) 

The Cowboys opened as -1.0 home favorites last spring, but a lot has changed since then. The line has moved as much as 6.0 points in favor of the Bengals. It peaked at -6.0, dipped to -5.5, and now sits between -4.5 and -5.5. The total opened 48.5 and it dropped to 45.5 on 12/1, but it then climbed back up to 50.5, and now 50.0. 

The majority of the bets (72%) have come in on the Bengals, and the handle (80%) has also come in on the Bengals which reflects that the "sharp" money has landed on Cincinnati. There is a 8% difference on bets versus handle.

The total has money on the Over at 76% of total bets, and 76% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Bengals have received 84% of the bets and 79% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Bengals - OL Orlando Brown (O), DT Sheldon Rankins (O), K Evan McPherson (O)

Cowboys - QB Dak Prescott (O), OL Zack Martin (O), OL Tyler Guyton (Q), LB Nick Vigil (Q), CB Trevon Diggs (Q)

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Bengals vs. Cowboys Betting Picks 

The Cowboys are just 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS this season, while the Bengals are 4-8 SU and 6-6 ATS. The Bengals are 8-2 to the Over in their last 10, including besting the total in their last 5 games. The Over has hit in 5 out of 6 Cowboys home games. The Bengals defense ranks 31st in points allowed and the Cowboys are 30th which explains the Over trend.

The Bengals regular kicker missing the game, along with it indoors and on turf make me want to lean towards the over in the first half. Also we get it just below the key number of 14 (13.5). 

Chase Brown should get 20+ carries in this game with Zack Moss out again and the Cowboys rank 31st in rushing yards allowed. 

Bengals vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Bengals Over 13.5 Points 1st Half 

Secondary Bet: Chase Brown Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (BetRivers -114)

Bengals vs. Cowboys Prediction

The Bengals do still have a playoff shot, but they would most likely need to win out. They have gone on runs in the past. I like them to win on the road in a high scoring game as both defenses are near the bottom in the league for points allowed.  

Bengals 27, Cowboys 24

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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