This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
So this is my first stab at the 2015 NFL Draft. I can assure you it bears little resemblance to the results we'll see April 30, so this initial article is mostly a wandering into the abstract of how perceived team needs might match the personnel available at each pick.
With that said, the order in which these players were picked does roughly correlate to my own rankings at the moment.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon (6-4, 200)
The Buccaneers roster is hideous, but a promising rookie quarterback could buy Lovie Smith another year or two.
2. Tennessee Titans – Randy Gregory, (3-4) OLB, Nebraska (6-6, 240)
The dossier on Ken Whisenhunt states that he's hopelessly in love with tall, strong-armed quarterbacks, so I think it's Mettenberger who starts in 2015. If not quarterback, then Tennessee presumably looks for a pass rusher.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson (6-3, 235)
Beasley looks an awful lot like Von Miller at times, and Jacksonville could use one of those.
4. Oakland Raiders – Leonard Williams, DT, USC (6-5, 300)
Williams is a highly disruptive talent who would make a menacing presence with Khalil Mack in the front seven.
5. Washington Redskins – Dante Fowler*, (3-4) OLB, Florida (6-3, 260)
Brian Orakpo isn't particularly coveted at this point, but Washington still needs to address this position.
6. New York Jets – Jameis Winston*, QB, Florida State (6-4, 230)
Bowles-Winston doesn't have the same villainy value that Ryan-Winston would have, but it will have to suffice.
7. Chicago Bears – Shane Ray*, DE, Missouri (6-3, 245)
The Bears need help at every defensive position, so they'll shrug and pick the defender they deem most valuable.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Amari Cooper*, WR, Alabama (6-1, 210)
Roddy White will be 33 in November and Harry Douglas isn't that great.
9. New York Giants – Andrus Peat*, OT, Stanford (6-7, 312)
Peat is very big and athletic for a tackle, which makes him a strong contrast to Justin Pugh, who I always thought belonged at guard or center.
10. St. Louis Rams – Trae Waynes*, CB, Michigan State (6-1, 182)
Waynes generally isn't projected to go this high, but I think it's a position of need for St. Louis.
11. Minnesota Vikings – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville (6-3, 210)
Reunion narrative! I think Teddy-to-DeVante would work in the pros, too.
12. Cleveland Browns – Maxx Williams*, TE, Minnesota (6-4, 250)
I'm apparently a bigger Williams fan than most, as I would easily take him over Eric Ebron, who went 10th overall last year. Williams should test very well at the Combine and was dominant at a young age while playing for Minnesota. (This pick assumes the Browns let Jordan Cameron walk).
13. New Orleans Saints – Shaq Thompson*, LB/S, Washington (6-1, 230)
Thompson looks like a Troy Polamalu clone to me, so I'd use him at safety, but the Saints could use him at inside linebacker, too.
14. Miami Dolphins – Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (6-3, 210)
I think White is overrated by much of the draft community, but I would like him for Miami at this spot.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Melvin Gordon*, RB, Wisconsin (6-1, 210)
I asked The Twitter what it thought about this pick. One 49ers fan approved, and it seemed like about 10 people either protested or cosigned a protesting comment. I think the one 49ers fan is in the right, obviously. Carlos Hyde was the most common reason for reflexively opposing Gordon to San Francisco, but Hyde averaged just 4.0 YPC while running for 333 yards and four touchdowns last year. He was safely outproduced by Frank Gore. Do you want Frank Gore leading your team's running game this year?
Another critical response I read said the 15th pick is too high to select a running back. I actually agree with this in almost all cases, but almost all cases don't involve a player like Gordon. Moreover, almost all the teams in that position are not the 49ers. The 49ers have drafted very well over the years and as a result have a talent surplus at nearly every position. To me, the only competing position is receiver, but we probably all agree that Gordon grades significantly higher as a prospect than Jaelen Strong or Devin Funchess do at receiver.
And finally, the last reason I think that Gordon is a perfect fit is because of San Francisco's recently expressed intention to run more often with Colin Kaepernick. If the 49ers are to run with Kaepernick using more option concepts, they'll need to make themselves better at running in general. For QB option runs to increase the efficiency of an offense, you need running backs good enough to make the defense pay when they try to cut off the quarterback from the edge. More than anyone else in this draft and more than almost all running backs in the league, Gordon is an ideal fit for this strategy.
Anyway, if you really hate this pick, go ahead and sub Strong or Funchess.
16. Houston Texans - Landon Collins*, S, Alabama (6-0, 215)
Collins is generally considered the top safety in the draft, and D.J. Swearinger has been a disappointment as a starter.
17. San Diego Chargers* - Ereck Flowers*, OT, Miami (FL) (6-6, 324)
D.J. Fluker has the right tackle spot set, but the Chargers need an upgrade on the left. I'm putting Flowers ahead of Brandon Scherff on the conditions that Flowers is younger and possesses longer arms, but I couldn't find information on either front prior to posting this article.
18. Kansas City Chiefs* - Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa (6-5, 320)
Eric Fisher wasn't worth the first overall pick two years ago, and Donald Stephenson can be upgraded over. Scherff can play guard if he doesn't provide an improvement at one of the tackle spots.
19. Cleveland Browns (from BUF) – Jaelen Strong*, WR, Arizona State (6-3, 215)
The Browns would be foolish to not pursue a WR1 prospect in this draft, and Strong is one of the last few considerations available.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Devin Funchess*, WR/TE, Michigan (6-5, 235)
Funchess can't block like Chip Kelly wants his tight ends to, but the matchup problems Funchess poses would give reason for Kelly to tolerate blocking below his usual standards. Plus, Funchess goes from a blocking liability to a blocking strength if you simply play him at wide receiver.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Malcom Brown*, DT, Texas (6-2, 320)
The Bengals need to improve their run defense, and I like Brown's chances of going second among defensive tackles after Leonard Williams.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (6-2, 340)
Shelton is the most fashionable DT projection after Leonard Williams, but I'm not sure he has the pass-rushing potential to appeal to most teams above this pick. The Steelers are desperate for improvement of all types of defense, however, and incumbent starting nose tackle Steve McLendon hasn't been fully convincing.
23. Detroit Lions – Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State (6-6, 308)
I can't tell whether center or right tackle is the bigger need for Detroit, but giving them Erving means I don't have to answer the question.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Eli Harold*, (3-4) OLB, Virginia (6-4, 250)
Harold strikes me as a worse version of Barkevious Mingo – a long, obviously athletic player who possesses the size/athleticism dimensions to project as a high-upside prospect. The Cardinals are desperate for edge rushers.
25. Carolina Panthers - T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (6-6, 315)
Clemmings looks like a monster on tape, but I'm thinking he might slip due to the trifecta of inexperience, advanced age (24-year-old rookie) and no history of playing left tackle. Given their beggar status, the Panthers have no grounds for complaint.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Todd Gurley*, RB, Georgia (6-1, 235)
Even if the Ravens bring back Justin Forsett, this would be a tough value to pass on. Whatever team picks Gurley will get a potential immediate top-five running back at a relatively cheap contract.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Jordan Phillips*, DT, Oklahoma (6-6, 334)
Phillips is not unlike Michael Brockers from a few years ago – a player with obviously rare athleticism and size but a lack of technical polish. Given that Brockers went 14th overall in his draft, I can see Phillips going higher than this.
28. Denver Broncos – La'el Collins, OT, LSU (6-5, 321)
The Broncos are likely in the market for a right tackle, and Collins could be a good fit here.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Arik Armstead*, (3-4) DE, Oregon (6-8, 290)
For a player pushing 6-foot-8 and 300 pounds, Armstead shows pretty remarkable flexibility and quickness. Although the Colts might need an edge rusher more than 3-4 lineman, Armstead would be tough to pass on here.
30. Green Bay Packers – Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon (6-6, 300)
I think it's reasonable to project this pick to take either an offensive tackle or a wide receiver depending on whether Green Bay can re-sign Bryan Bulaga or Randall Cobb, respectively. It's possible that Green Bay loses both, while retaining both seems highly unlikely. For this exercise, I'm supposing Green Bay finds the cap room to retain Cobb but not Bulaga. If Cobb walks instead, go ahead and put Nelson Agholor here.
31. Seattle Seahawks – Nelson Agholor*, WR, USC (6-0, 190)
Agholor is a much better version of Paul Richardson, who the Seahawks selected in the second round last year. Agholor fits what's evidently Pete Carroll's preferred style of wideout – quick and precise rather than big and imposing.
32. New England Patriots - P.J. Williams*, CB, Florida State (6-0, 196)
Brandon Browner will turn 31 over the summer, and Darrelle Revis will probably need to restructure his contract in order to return to New England.
